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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Who is that?

Scroll down the topics page here in the MA. You will see a title with his name  KA. I believe his name is Keith. 

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13 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

Scroll down the topics page here in the MA. You will see a title with his name  KA. I believe his name is Keith. 

So now how did he do that, and what did he look at? Whatever it is...it's probably more reliable than all LR guidance, lol

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I guess I'm the only one who thought the Euro was a decent run . Still a significant winter storm verbatim esp nw of 95   Actually the front end thump of snow shifted south about 75 Miles from 0z ( still north but closer) . At 5 1/2 to 6 days out I'm fine with it .  Wxbell is hours delayed but I bet Eps will show some decent hits . 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, frd said:
in regards to the NAO 
From Isotherm courtesy 33andrain  
This is closer. On the 12z ECMWF, we see an equatorward cyclonic wave-breaking attempt which pumps heights northwestward toward Greenland. We'll see what the EPS depicts, but if the Euro continued past 240 hours, one would want to see this CWB progress farther east, thus detaching the Greenland height/action center from the Azores sub-tropical high. It's almost there. The sensible weather effects with PNA coupling wouldn't be until after the 25th.
 
r92vz8.png&key=860140de07f9e8770666cb3fc37d7f3f1f909d2c853581a4716e0d673f4aaacd

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year

 

 

It's an observation, not a forecast. I'm merely analyzing what could happen, and delineating possibilities. I said what needs to occur in order for the pattern to improve, not that I necessarily believed it would definitively occur. There are multiple ways this can evolve, one of which is a continuation of blocking-fail.

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Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z  . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine  more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z  . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine  more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . 

So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need.  

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wxbell still not fully out but Eps looks stronger with confluence looking at h5 anomalies for Wed compared to 0z  . That should lock in cold a bit better and I imagine  more frozen outcomes within the members ..no doubt mix precip would be favored . 

More like earlier this week you think?  

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13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need.  

EPS shows a pretty good CAD signature Tuesday night. image.thumb.png.05e43cfc0617e28021ad47ba7f397fd5.png

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So weatherbell finally decided to pony up some maps? But yeah it does look marginally better. Still a long way to go to get anyone south of around the PA line into some half decent frozen. But 7 days so there is still plenty of time to get the adjustments we need.  

FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. 

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1 minute ago, Round Hill WX said:

FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. 

FWIW? It's worth nothing! Boo!! :lol: Salt in the wound, dude...lol

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2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

FWIW, the EPS is a furnace beyond day 7. Deep SW trough, big, building SE ridge. 

it cools D11-D15 lol  but its like early May by then

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HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless...

Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!!

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless...

Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!!

so here is the thing.....the GFS is way slow with the precip. at 00z...there is nothing....6z till precip way far away while Euro has heavy precip(sleet it appears). On the flipside...it probably means that if the precip got here earlier....the high moves out quicker...so either way we are screwed lol...unless the SE ridge isnt as pronounced 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

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with that said--the  18z is a monster improvement...looking  more like the FV3. Hopefuly the Euro bias of too much trough  in SW will play out in a few days

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the virtual kidnapping of @Bob Chill has been sad today. We could use an optimistic/non realistic post today lol

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The SE ridge causes the front to stall and dump 12" of rain over MS/TN. It's a monster on this run.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

The SE ridge causes the front to stall and dump 12" of rain over MS/TN. It's a monster on this run.

how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and  now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high

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Just now, Ji said:

how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and  now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high

I knew that would happen, in fact after that uncancel is whenthings started to unravel...of course it’s coincidental...or is it

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Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

It’s probably the insanely warm SSTs in the western Atlantic....no idea lol  

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38 minutes ago, Ji said:

how is DT going to look that he cancelled winter....then cancelled it..telling his public that he was dead wrong...and  now has to go cancel it again. If he would of kept it cancelled, he would of been riding high

It’s going to snow in VA Saturday. Next week it will snow somewhere in the northeast. Might be way north of us but he cancelled for the northeast and New England too remember!  He was exaggerating and going to bust anyways. 

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Sterling's latest for the Tuesday/Wed system..

Low pressure forms in the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
afternoon and will track to the northwest up the Appalachians
before transferring its energy off the coast of VA/NC. With a
fairly strong Canadian high over the northeast and southeast
Canada, there should be sub-freezing air at the surface to work
with. With strong warm advection aloft, temperatures look to be
far too warm to support an all snow event. So, expecting another
wintry mix type event late Tuesday into Wednesday. Could see
some snow on the front end if precipitation starts before warmer
air aloft arrives, so have depicted that in the forecast. This
will likely be one of those events where the dividing line for
wintry precipitation and all rain sets up somewhere over the
CWA, and at this time, it is far too early to depict exactly
where that may occur. Precipitation will continue into
Wednesday. Wintry mix will gradually change to all rain
throughout the day, except for areas along the Mason-Dixon line,
where wintry precipitation may linger into Wednesday night.

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Am I the only one that notices huge changes day 10 on the gefs and eps?  The trough starts shifting east but over the top of the ridge. But trough east of Hawaii. Epo ridge in better alignment. What maddening is something else is obviously pumping the se ridge. It’s not the western trough. Look here 

98333AD6-0679-4E79-97D8-36EF3E7DDF86.thumb.png.5499ebcf7c20c3eedf01184c8512f38e.png

that’s a mess. But the pac is fine. We saw the shift we wanted. And it kicks the trough out but it gets shunted over the ridge. Something else is causing that se ridge. 

That said such a huge sudden shift in guidance could indicate changes coming. Maybe they are just picking up on the changes. 

But I’m starting to wonder why the se ridge doesn’t want to budge!

 

It's only 10 days away, what could possibly go wrong?

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