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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a lot of ice. 

Those precip type plots use the average temperature over the period to estimate precip type, but if during the heavy thump temps are isothermal and just cold enough, which is what those maps hint at to me, it would be a mostly heavy snow thump to lighter freezing rain.  There was a storm in Feb 2007 with a similar temp/precip profile and I think the same happened.  It was warmer at the surface so I don't think heavy freezing rain was the concern but people didnt expect a big thump of snow but the heavy precip along the temperature boundary created enough cooling to keep the area mostly snow until the heavy precip moved out.    I could be wrong but that was the look imo.  

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@psuhoffman

I totally agree with your logic but even at onset 850s are hovering just below freezing. With southerly midlevel flow there can easily be warm layers at different levels or a fast retreat of 850s. In my brain the euro maps verbatim do make sense given the marginal column at onset and southerly midlevel flow. Of course discussing this level of detail is borderline insane because we'll get new things to worry, despise, or celebrate every 6-12 hours for many days to come. lol

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I totally agree with your logic but even at onset 850s are hovering just below freezing. With southerly midlevel flow there can easily be warm layers at different levels or a fast retreat of 850s. In my brain the euro maps verbatim do make sense given the marginal column at onset and southerly midlevel flow. Of course discussing this level of detail is borderline insane because we'll get new things to worry, despise, or celebrate every 6-12 hours for many days to come. lol

lol you're right verbatim its probably mix...but I bet more sleet than frz rain at those rates.  Actually if we actually got that much precip...like .75 in a very short period... I am just adding my "interpretation" that it would be mostly snow.  We see that all the time...the thump snow, my area got that in November, that kind of heavy precip will almost always flip the coin onto the cold side in marginal situations like that.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Those precip type plots use the average temperature over the period to estimate precip type, but if during the heavy thump temps are isothermal and just cold enough, which is what those maps hint at to me, it would be a mostly heavy snow thump to lighter freezing rain.  There was a storm in Feb 2007 with a similar temp/precip profile and I think the same happened.  It was warmer at the surface so I don't think heavy freezing rain was the concern but people didnt expect a big thump of snow but the heavy precip along the temperature boundary created enough cooling to keep the area mostly snow until the heavy precip moved out.    I could be wrong but that was the look imo.  

I remember that storm, in fact it was Feb. 25, 2007.  And you're correct, it was an unexpected heavy thump of snow over several hours, on the order of 5-6" in fact.  Forecasts I think were calling for mostly ice and sleet, but we got a paste job.  The surface temperature was right around freezing with an isothermal profile I seem to recall hearing.  When the precip came to an end, we were just above freezing and got some light drizzle for awhile after the heavy snow.  Quite a neat event!

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EPS looks better for next week.  Looks like a 1-2" increase over 0z....yes, all I looked at was snowfall.  The lazy man's approach but it's all the signal I need to know which direction it stepped vs 0z.

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EPS is pretty decent for next week. Spread is big so no real details worth mentioning other than the majority of the members give us some frozen precip ranging from just a little or a very nice hit. 

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The problem with Ralph is we root for different things and have different climo. I think the euro looks pretty good/fun and Ralph hates it because the solution sucks for him

False sir. I will take my glacier and love it ty very much

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

False sir. I will take my glacier and love it ty very much

#backyardbrawl............

 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is pretty decent for next week. Spread is big so no real details worth mentioning other than the majority of the members give us some frozen precip ranging from just a little or a very nice hit. 

Well it sounds like we have a week of tracking legit threats.  I'm just gonna leave it at that for now...

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well it sounds like we have a week of tracking legit threats.  I'm just gonna leave it at that for now...

I’m just gonna track the next 2 threats and worry about the LR on Wednesday of next week. 

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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is pretty decent for next week. Spread is big so no real details worth mentioning other than the majority of the members give us some frozen precip ranging from just a little or a very nice hit. 

There was a subtle uptick in hits day 9 after 0z had unanimous support for a cutter there. Not much signal yet but a noticeable trend away from the abyss. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a subtle uptick in hits day 9 after 0z had unanimous support for a cutter there. Not much signal yet but a noticeable trend away from the abyss. 

Nice shift on the EPS rolling the PNA/EPO forward. Much better than last night and looks more like the GEFS now late in the run. I still think it's coming sooner rather than later but the stubbornness on the ens give me pause. Regardless, we'll have plenty to track over the coming days. If it gets really good after then great. If not, we'll keep figuring out how to get snow in jacked up patterns. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a subtle uptick in hits day 9 after 0z had unanimous support for a cutter there. Not much signal yet but a noticeable trend away from the abyss. 

Didn't you get the memo? We don't believe in Day 9+ anymore! :P

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice shift on the EPS rolling the PNA/EPO forward. Much better than last night and looks more like the GEFS now late in the run. I still think it's coming sooner rather than later but the stubbornness on the ens give me pause. Regardless, we'll have plenty to track over the coming days. If it gets really good after then great. If not, we'll keep figuring out how to get snow in jacked up patterns. 

in my mind, thats 50% of how we snow anymore.  Stable longwave favorable patterns have been modeled much, but are seemingly few and far between in the last few years.  Feels that way anyhow.

 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice shift on the EPS rolling the PNA/EPO forward. Much better than last night and looks more like the GEFS now late in the run. I still think it's coming sooner rather than later but the stubbornness on the ens give me pause. Regardless, we'll have plenty to track over the coming days. If it gets really good after then great. If not, we'll keep figuring out how to get snow in jacked up patterns. 

It feels like they are meeting in the middle. Gefs backing off blocking and shifting the trough north once it shifts east. Eps backing off getting stuck west. The look can work. Slight adjustment and it’s good. My only fear would be if the war pops back up then we would just be right back where we were weeks ago where any major amplified storm would cut.  

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7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I predict that 582dm can make it up here in the medium range. 

I think the Great Lakes low could kill the mids, but I think the shut up line could get even farther.  

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Hope something shows up in the medium range that can save this thing enough to NOT be as much of a mix...time to root for that 50/50! :D (Now, how long before we have to take such a development off the table?)

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52 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

The shut up line -- does that run through Chuck's house?

It's a literal line and it bisects his house.  As in if he goes from the couch to the fridge to get a beer, he has to hop over that son of a bitch. 

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Safe to say the 18z gfs is nothing like the Euro

Yeah I think the GFS forgot that its February and not late March.  

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Safe to say the 18z gfs is nothing like the Euro

it almost looks like a potential wave 1/wave 2 situation.

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49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hope something shows up in the medium range that can save this thing enough to NOT be as much of a mix...time to root for that 50/50! :D (Now, how long before we have to take such a development off the table?)

Hopefully it can drop a spear on the ridge and pop it.

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Last few runs of the GEFS look to be setting up for a nice start to March. Very favorable h5 look.

12z EPS is at least showing signs of moving that way too.

 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have a feeling about this one 

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Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today)

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today)

What makes you say that?

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