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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". 

:snowwindow:

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the question isn't whether i'll remember the snow, it's whether i'll remember the snow or rain MORE

the next few weeks will determine that

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Just now, Jandurin said:

the trend in this case is models having no clue wtf mjo is going to do

I'm disappointed in you...I've been teaching you all winter how to respond to people without directly responding to them. You were doing so well...no dessert for you 

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1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

 

GFS ENSEMBLES - The MJO has been all over the map the past week.  From off the chart to diving to the center to now a loop back..  whats next?  made famous.   

 

27 minutes ago, frd said:

I think this stuff is what spooked Don S.

Moving back to seven from eight. 

I admit it has been a bizzare winter.  I mean the hell with how much snow falls,  from a modeling and association point of view,  this has to be the worse winter ever for results that go against what you would normally expect.  I think certain long range forecasters have stopped posting out of the boy who cried wolf saying.  

For all I know a  blizzard could strike in March but damn these models are having the hardest time.  

The thing is, that look around phase 8 should be a good thing.  Yea it retrogrades back into 7 but not until VERY late and I wouldn't put any stock into it.  The GEFS has been doing that for a long time and wrong.  Look at where we would be right now according to the last 15 day GEFS forecast vs now... 

operdyn_verif15D_full.gif.19ad8dfcd3603594c3fc9518b6b9812e.gif

Even as recently as 48 hours ago the GEFS thought we would be looping around 6/7 right now and we are now into 8 just like the EPS showed.  I expect the GEFS to continue to correct.  Also...the statitical guidance based on analogs suggest progress into 8 and perhaps 1 is likely.  The constructed analog CA has been doing the best lately so maybe a loop in 8 is the right idea but it doesn't regress to 7 and looks to be progressing again at the end.  Besides...a loop in 8 is WHAT WE WANT!

statphase_full.gif.1b358f1cfd01c35e43037037c6386239.gif

But unfortunately that does not ensure results.  The EPS has been progressing the mjo through 8/1 and it has the trough stuck in the west also.  Maybe the euro does that due to bias, and the gfs does that because of mjo error.  I suppose... but I keep expecting the adjustment to the expected soi/mjo phase and it's going the other way right now honestly.  Either way the SOI has already tanked and stays that way for the next 10+ days.  There is subsidence all over the maritime continent, and the forcing is out near or east of the dateline on most guidance.  The problem here is not the mjo imo.  If we fail its something else.  It's possible that there is something else pumping the ridge in the east and that is shifting the pattern upstream vs us looking at the PAC and expecting changes downstream.  I honestly don't know.  I've seen recently others seem equally confused, some chalking it up to chaos, I've yet to see a good theory as to why we might not get the expected reaction to the soi/mjo.  Even Furtado hasn't mentioned any causality, simply an observed effect.  

 

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49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Trying to catch up. Did we recancel winter last night? And is the recancel before or after the 3 snow events in the next 6 days? Asking for a friend!

2 of those 3 are in the other thread.  The one in this thread is kind of approaching the near range edge of what I consider "long range".  But I hope people don't mistake the conversation and speculation I am having regarding the "long range" days 7-15 as having anything to do with our chances of snow from the 3 threats before that now entering the medium range.  

But at the same time... it is impossible to ignore the degradation of the pattern look week 2 right now.  Especially when I expected and predicted it would evolve towards more +PNA -NAO and eastern trough and it is going the exact opposite way right now on all guidance.   

Question... do you have any thoughts/opinions what might be driving the SE ridge?  With the SOI tanked and the MJO into 8 it's obviously not derived from the PAC tropical forcing.  Is it the downstream effect of the north PAC blocking ridge forcing the trough into the west...and if so why is that stuck there despite favorable pac forcing?  OR...is the SE ridge being caused by another forcing source and is blocking up the flow upstream and forcing the trough/ridge alignment out west to be where it is?  Any thoughts?

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". 

I'm at 55%, with 90% of the winter gone.

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38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". 

I don't think I've had a single Winter Storm Warning since 2016.

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I have no idea why the SE ridge is so persistent in the ensembles. This has been a weird year. The 500mb height anomalies for the winter to date look fairly Ninoish as I recall, but there’s been a whole lot of Nina looks as well. I think maybe this winter will go down as a warm neutral with some Nina hangover, but it has a lot of unique elements to it. Adding in the early SSW just complicates it all. Regardless, it’s worked out fairly well for us and even barring the unicorn HECS we’re hunting, it looks like our region will probably end up 75-125% of normal snowfall.

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don't think I've had a single Winter Storm Warning since 2016.

NYC didn’t have a winter storm watch once from March 96 til December 2000.   The events were that putrid that even at 48-60 hours not one warranted a watch.  They never had a watch in January 2000 because they went right to a warning.  

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42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny all of the debbing all winter long yet a good chunk of the posters in this subforum are slowly getting closer to avg seasonal snowfall if not already slightly ahead. By the time winter is over several will be scratching their heads saying to themselves "wow, I dont remember that winter and all of the snow....it looked terrible on guidance the entire season". 

There are a few we know will DEB every year unless it’s 2003, 2010, or 2014. Basically that once every 7 years kind of anomaly where we get 200% snowfall is all that can keep them happy. The other 85% of the time they will be miserable. 

But this year there are still pockets of mediocrity around our region and some of the debbing is from them. CAPE has every right to be frustrated for instance.

As for me I go with the flow. When the pattern looks good and I think we have a good chance of snow I’m saying it looks good.  Go back to last year, I was getting complaints that I was being too positive sometimes.  I wasn’t debbing in early December.  I thought that pattern was legit we just missed.  And I didn’t deb the early January storm, I was one of the few that saw more upside than a weak waa wave from a few days away.  Just wish the northern edge had been 25 miles north of where it was! 

But when I see things I don’t like I say that too.  If you need a safe space and don’t like the honest truth both good AND BAD then put me on ignore.  But I don’t think saying things look bad when they actually do look bad is debbing. That’s being honest. Debbing are the people that put a negative spin on everything or are never satisfied unless it’s a HECS. 

Btw I’m not jumping off yet. We had a bad run. It could flip back. And we have legit snow threats before the crap look.  But what are we supposed to do when a crap run of guidance comes it?  Just ignore it and don’t talk about it so people can be blissfully ignorant?  I don’t get the complaining about “talking about bad runs”. 

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I have no idea why the SE ridge is so persistent in the ensembles. This has been a weird year. The 500mb height anomalies for the winter to date look fairly Ninoish as I recall, but there’s been a whole lot of Nina looks as well. I think maybe this winter will go down as a warm neutral with some Nina hangover, but it has a lot of unique elements to it. Adding in the early SSW just complicates it all. Regardless, it’s worked out fairly well for us and even barring the unicorn HECS we’re hunting, it looks like our region will probably end up 75-125% of normal snowfall.

Agree on the retrospective, but with the soi mostly neutral to positive and the mjo cycling around 4-7 all winter the non nino features infecting the pattern made sense. I’m more confused to see a -soi mjo phase 8 and still not get the typical pattern response. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But I don’t think saying things look bad when they actually do look bad is debbing. That’s being honest. Debbing are the people that put a negative spin on everything or are never satisfied unless it’s a HECS. 

Your posts are well balanced psu.  I think you have to present the good and the bad.  

Just because I mention a negative does not mean I am cancelling winter threats out there in the long range.  But, discounting bad runs, or trends and sugar coating things is not cool, then you are biased. 

I think the purpose of this thread is the long range and the good and bad.  It is also a platform to ask questions about the long range, learn from one another and seek answers to things that are relevant regarding the weather patterns and drivers that guide the long range forecats for our forum.    

 

 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree on the retrospective, but with the soi mostly neutral to positive and the mjo cycling around 4-7 all winter the non nino features infecting the pattern made sense. I’m more confused to see a -soi mjo phase 8 and still not get the typical pattern response. 

I am going to bring over to this thread some good insights about the PAC and the evolution of the SSWE,  It seems to touch on some things you were talking about.  Does not answer everything but touches on some good theories.  I am going to look around today about the SE ridge you brought up a little while ago. 

 

   

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I think it is the poor performance in the long range and also the expectations for the winter that have combined to sour people.  I really do think that whatever happens the rest of the winter is unknown.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a gangbusters end and also wouldn't be surprised to see an early spring.  Extremes are really becoming the norm, IMO.

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1 hour ago, Jandurin said:

the question isn't whether i'll remember the snow, it's whether i'll remember the snow or rain MORE

the next few weeks will determine that

this is where i'm at.  we got one good snowstorm.  aside from that, there's been a lot of snow left on the table because of all the rainers.  let's see if the next couple weeks can turn the tide.  if not, then just bring on spring...at least there's a good chance it'll be lush.

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2 of those 3 are in the other thread.  The one in this thread is kind of approaching the near range edge of what I consider "long range".  But I hope people don't mistake the conversation and speculation I am having regarding the "long range" days 7-15 as having anything to do with our chances of snow from the 3 threats before that now entering the medium range.  

But at the same time... it is impossible to ignore the degradation of the pattern look week 2 right now.  Especially when I expected and predicted it would evolve towards more +PNA -NAO and eastern trough and it is going the exact opposite way right now on all guidance.   

Question... do you have any thoughts/opinions what might be driving the SE ridge?  With the SOI tanked and the MJO into 8 it's obviously not derived from the PAC tropical forcing.  Is it the downstream effect of the north PAC blocking ridge forcing the trough into the west...and if so why is that stuck there despite favorable pac forcing?  OR...is the SE ridge being caused by another forcing source and is blocking up the flow upstream and forcing the trough/ridge alignment out west to be where it is?  Any thoughts?

Probably PDO related like Bob has been saying.

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are a few we know will DEB every year unless it’s 2003, 2010, or 2014. Basically that once every 7 years kind of anomaly where we get 200% snowfall is all that can keep them happy. The other 85% of the time they will be miserable. 

 

I recall people even complaining in those great years listed above (albeit less so).  Some people are just never satisfied or feel the need to be downers.

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@C.A.P.E.  We were tracking the CFS a while ago.  lol  Maybe we are looking at the western trough wrong...CFS gets to a good look week 2-4 but it does it by retrograding the western trough west EVEN MORE...and then shifting everything west including the trough in the Atlantic.  There were a few times where I thought that might be a better way here than expecting progression...that just hasn't happened all year.  Of course the problem is the CFS does that by going absolutely berserk with nao blocking week 2 and that forces the chain reaction.  Nothing else has that look and the nao has been mostly a fail every time this winter.  

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@psuhoffman  courtesy 33andrain .  

 

I bolded some parts that I felt were interesting 

 

@MattHugo,

 

There was evidence in favour of the E to W transitional QBO stage supporting SSWs occurring, but not necessarily propagating all the way downward. 

 

I believe for that we needed a predominantly wave-2 driven vortex split event, instead of the mainly wave-1 driven displacement-then-split event that we saw. Reason being that the former drives a much faster response that would likely have outpaced the descending W QBO and established major easterly flow anomalies in the troposphere. The much slower 'drip-down' nature of the event we've seen instead has allowed the W QBO to become a blockade that's kept most of the negative zonal wind anomalies in the stratosphere. I have a feeling that the manifestation for a time of a very unusual three-way vortex split right after the reversal initiation may further have impeded the downwelling by distributing the negative zonal anomalies more widely, essentially making them more diffuse.

 

At the time of the SSW, part of the response was a cooling of the upper troposphere above the tropics, enhancing convection even where the base state doesn't support it. Alongside the negative zonal anomalies, the SSW-driven positive temperature anomalies have also been held in the lower stratosphere, keeping the upper tropical troposphere cooler than usual and allowing the convection to continue to behave in ways that don't tie in with the Nino base state (interference with the patterns the Nino base state otherwise drive being the scrambling of the tropical-extratropical processes that Tamara refers to). Climate change may have taken this even further than it would otherwise have gone via increased overall oceanic heat content, but that's a matter of debate - to me the stratospheric mishaps seem more important for this particular winter's turnout.

 

 

I think we can see a good example of the interference this coming week; the neutral ENSO MJO composites (top row) fit the ECM 00z much more than the Nino ones, despite AAM and GWO observations indicating that it would usually fit more to the positive ENSO composites;

 

nada_6_feb_mid.pngnada_7_feb_ok.png
nino_6_feb_mid.pngnino_7_feb_ok.png

 

GFS fits mostly the neutral P6 composite before seemingly jumping straight to something akin to the P8 neutral composite (see below, left) with little P7 response - probably due to how it stalls the MJO in P7 for a while; continued eastward propagation is needed to bring about the typical response to activity within a given phase of the RMM plots.

 

The negative NAO-related UK cold potential for late this month and into March depends on how well we can break free of the Nina-like interference and so bring about an MJO P8 response more typical of the Nino base state.

 

So more toward the right-hand composite than the left-hand one. Note how I'm saying 'more toward' here; the composites should never be taken too literally (ideally we'd have different ones for each possible combination of MJO phase, GWO phase and AAM tendency, but there simply aren't enough historical years of obs data to do this meaningfully!).

 

nada_8_feb_mid.pngnino_8_feb_mid.png

 

As you can see - the temperature regime across the UK will be extremely sensitive to how much the interference gives way.

 

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1 minute ago, jonjon said:

I recall people even complaining in those great years listed above (albeit less so).  Some people are just never satisfied or feel the need to be downers.

Ji famously complained that missing the "threats" late February and early March 2010 ruined that year.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E.  We were tracking the CFS a while ago.  lol  Maybe we are looking at the western trough wrong...CFS gets to a good look week 2-4 but it does it by retrograding the western trough west EVEN MORE...and then shifting everything west including the trough in the Atlantic.  There were a few times where I thought that might be a better way here than expecting progression...that just hasn't happened all year.  Of course the problem is the CFS does that by going absolutely berserk with nao blocking week 2 and that forces the chain reaction.  Nothing else has that look and the nao has been mostly a fail every time this winter.  

Yeah I saw that, and no I don't buy the big blocky look at this point. Once again that ship has sailed, and it was a ghost ship yet again I'm afraid.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably PDO related like Bob has been saying.

maybe, but the PDO doesn't look THAT hostile to me.  It's kind of neutralish imo with conflicting good (NE PAC warmth) and bad (warm pool east of Japan) signals.  Not discounting that possibility... there is obviously something I am missing.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

maybe, but the PDO doesn't look THAT hostile to me.  It's kind of neutralish imo with conflicting good (NE PAC warmth) and bad (warm pool east of Japan) signals.  Not discounting that possibility... there is obviously something I am missing.  

might be the gradient SST we spoke about , or maybe the extreme warm waters East of Aussie.  I know we mentioned that as well.  Bob spoke of the Waters East of Japan, to me the PDO looks Ok, not bad enough to cause a huge impact.  But, not sure.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

maybe, but the PDO doesn't look THAT hostile to me.  It's kind of neutralish imo with conflicting good (NE PAC warmth) and bad (warm pool east of Japan) signals.  Not discounting that possibility... there is obviously something I am missing.  

A combo of things. PDO early on was not favorable. The Nino was very late getting going, and still is probably more a warm neutral, plus it has not been well defined, and has not really coupled to the atmosphere, which was probably largely due to MJO on roids interfering. MJO and SOI are trending more favorable, but probably a lag effect. Also sometimes we have to accept that this shit is very complex- large scale fluid mechanics and heat transfer- and we just cant know.

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman  courtesy 33andrain .  

 

I bolded some parts that I felt were interesting 

 

@MattHugo,

 

There was evidence in favour of the E to W transitional QBO stage supporting SSWs occurring, but not necessarily propagating all the way downward. 

 

I believe for that we needed a predominantly wave-2 driven vortex split event, instead of the mainly wave-1 driven displacement-then-split event that we saw. Reason being that the former drives a much faster response that would likely have outpaced the descending W QBO and established major easterly flow anomalies in the troposphere. The much slower 'drip-down' nature of the event we've seen instead has allowed the W QBO to become a blockade that's kept most of the negative zonal wind anomalies in the stratosphere. I have a feeling that the manifestation for a time of a very unusual three-way vortex split right after the reversal initiation may further have impeded the downwelling by distributing the negative zonal anomalies more widely, essentially making them more diffuse.

 

At the time of the SSW, part of the response was a cooling of the upper troposphere above the tropics, enhancing convection even where the base state doesn't support it. Alongside the negative zonal anomalies, the SSW-driven positive temperature anomalies have also been held in the lower stratosphere, keeping the upper tropical troposphere cooler than usual and allowing the convection to continue to behave in ways that don't tie in with the Nino base state (interference with the patterns the Nino base state otherwise drive being the scrambling of the tropical-extratropical processes that Tamara refers to). Climate change may have taken this even further than it would otherwise have gone via increased overall oceanic heat content, but that's a matter of debate - to me the stratospheric mishaps seem more important for this particular winter's turnout.

 

 

I think we can see a good example of the interference this coming week; the neutral ENSO MJO composites (top row) fit the ECM 00z much more than the Nino ones, despite AAM and GWO observations indicating that it would usually fit more to the positive ENSO composites;

 

nada_6_feb_mid.pngnada_7_feb_ok.png
nino_6_feb_mid.pngnino_7_feb_ok.png

 

GFS fits mostly the neutral P6 composite before seemingly jumping straight to something akin to the P8 neutral composite (see below, left) with little P7 response - probably due to how it stalls the MJO in P7 for a while; continued eastward propagation is needed to bring about the typical response to activity within a given phase of the RMM plots.

 

The negative NAO-related UK cold potential for late this month and into March depends on how well we can break free of the Nina-like interference and so bring about an MJO P8 response more typical of the Nino base state.

 

So more toward the right-hand composite than the left-hand one. Note how I'm saying 'more toward' here; the composites should never be taken too literally (ideally we'd have different ones for each possible combination of MJO phase, GWO phase and AAM tendency, but there simply aren't enough historical years of obs data to do this meaningfully!).

 

nada_8_feb_mid.pngnino_8_feb_mid.png

 

As you can see - the temperature regime across the UK will be extremely sensitive to how much the interference gives way.

 

Interesting read... some of those point's I agree with 100%, like the interference regarding the MJO.  The connection to the SSWE is interesting, we kind of speculated before but this would imply the SSWE did actually hurt us because it caused the increased MJO activity but then we never reaped much benefit because of its failure to propagate fully.  UGH lol

Some of that I find more useful to right now but less so what is coming.  We are into phase 8 now as of today.  So why week 2 would be trending towards a phase 6 look is well beyond the typical lag effect.  I could see it if we were talking about the next week or so, but by day 10 we should be past any effects from a phase 6 that ended a few days ago.  What is interesting though is the idea that without propagation east the previous signal lags so perhaps that keeps us under the influence of a phase 7 regime.  But the euro as of yesterday did propagate the wave into 1 and still did not show a phase 8 response.  So this is all interesting but there are questions and gaps in some of that imo.  

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I saw that, and no I don't buy the big blocky look at this point. Once again that ship has sailed, and it was a ghost ship yet again I'm afraid.

The NAO issue might have something to do with the QBO and how it is moving since late November .

I also mentioned in that other post I did where the met stated the QBO might have halted the proper reponse from the SSWE to downwell in a typical manner. 

and he mentioned again, ( backtracking ) the unusual nature of the SSWE , how it was driven ( wave 2 versus wave 1 ) and the way the main vortex split into 3 may have as he stated diluted the response .  All very interestiing  

maybe just maybe a short bit more sudden wind reversal and then a recovery would have been better in my mind, but I am really reaching.

also think base state leading into to this winter,  December was horrible in terms of the SOI , so again what did that effect have.   

 

 

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