• Member Statistics

    15,858
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Waltzman
    Newest Member
    Waltzman
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just waking up and trying to catch up. We are still on track for the Feb 20+ epic mother of all unicorn grand finale to winter weather patterns here?

It will be a fanale 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just waking up and trying to catch up. We are still on track for the Feb 20+ epic mother of all unicorn grand finale to winter weather patterns here?

get ready for another day of people posting 384 hour maps saying how good the atlantic looks

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While @Bob Chill goes to sleep each night and dreams about fresh DMV pow pow, @showmethesnow and @psuhoffman go sneaking into the closet with their phone flashlight on low beam. They are secretly searching high and low for their favorite shorts and T-shirt’s as a preparation for an early spring. I hope you gents find a rabid groundhog hidden in your pile of old school Costco cargo shorts. :lol:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just waking up and trying to catch up. We are still on track for the Feb 20+ epic mother of all unicorn grand finale to winter weather patterns here?

0677A1F8-9274-41F4-B47A-D0EC7D21980F.thumb.png.addef65998d7be04c1c580c997b25913.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Scraff said:

While @Bob Chill goes to sleep each night and dreams about fresh DMV pow pow, @showmethesnow and @psuhoffman go sneaking into the closet with their phone flashlight on low beam. They are secretly searching high and low for their favorite shorts and T-shirt’s as a preparation for an early spring. I hope you gents find a rabid groundhog hidden in your pile of old school Costco cargo shorts. :lol:

Now if you are going to give me grief then get it right. I'm old school. I use a regular flashlight not my phone. ;)

p.s. Come on Camping Season. :D

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trying to catch up things dont look that bad for late Feb. Outside of day 10 on most guidance (the se ridge thing and AN 850s and 2m) the looks are overall fairly uniform with general BN stuff and lots of threats throughout. I dont see a whole heck of alot that has changed and I think that one or maybe 2 very anomalous days of AN SE ridge heights is skewing things a little bit. If it makes a difference I think the Euro is doing it's old trick of holding and overphasing energy out West again. It seems rather isolated irt AN temps at 850 flooding basically the entire Eastern US thru the full run. It's either scoring an epic win for itself or off base in the MR and LR yet again this season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bed and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

  • Haha 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bef and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

I was thinking the same thing reading guidance and comments today! He needs to re-cancel so the weather pattern works against him again! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biggest problem long range I see compared to better looks before is a combo of little things that add up. The biggest two are the trough out west is less positively tilted. It’s not really centered west of where it was but it’s not positively tilted so it’s pumping the ridge more instead of ejecting energy over the top and suppressing it.  

The 50/50 is more consolidated instead of a larger area of lower heights stretching back to our north. That combo creates too much space between the western trough and Atlantic one and so the ridge can pump more. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bed and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

You convinced me...grab your pitchforks and torches and meet me at DTs 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

 

GFS ENSEMBLES - The MJO has been all over the map the past week.  From off the chart to diving to the center to now a loop back..  whats next?  made famous.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Had a chance to read some of the overnight stuff here so wait....DT says epic winter coming and it was anything but epic. DT cancels winter and guidance goes berserk with epic pattern of all winter weather patterns for us. DT uncancels his cancel and his fabled Euro craps the bed and says this time I mean it winter is over. Lol....cant script this stuff.

I was thinking the same thing. It’s seemed like when he jumped on the bandwagon, everything went badly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said:

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

 

GFS ENSEMBLES - The MJO has been all over the map the past week.  From off the chart to diving to the center to now a loop back..  whats next?  made famous.   

Where did you get that?  Hasn’t updated on my source yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where did you get that?  Hasn’t updated on my source yet. 

On Noaa's site believe it or not

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where did you get that?  Hasn’t updated on my source yet. 

I think this stuff is what spooked Don S.

Moving back to seven from eight. 

I admit it has been a bizzare winter.  I mean the hell with how much snow falls,  from a modeling and association point of view,  this has to be the worse winter ever for results that go against what you would normally expect.  I think certain long range forecasters have stopped posting out of the boy who cried wolf saying.  

For all I know a  blizzard could strike in March but damn these models are having the hardest time.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually like where we stand with the Tuesday deal. GEFS has trended to a much more snowy look over its last 3 runs. I’d take 2/3 all snow for sat/sun/Tuesday/Wednesday with a little ice thrown in on Sunday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Might be time to fire up the lawnmower to make sure it runs. The spring grass is going to be obnoxious this year. First cut by March 13th is my guess after two weeks of 60 + temps

Your mower might sink 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trying to catch up. Did we recancel winter last night? And is the recancel before or after the 3 snow events in the next 6 days? Asking for a friend!

  • Like 3
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ji said:

get ready for another day of people posting 384 hour maps saying how good the atlantic looks

or you saying how horrible everything looks......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You know there have been 4 accumulating snow events in the last month for many in our sub. With a chance of another 2-3 in the next week. Some in the forum could very well hit climo by next Tuesday. But if you read the long range threads over the last month you’d think we haven’t gotten an inch and the winter has been a total fail. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.