PhineasC Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks cosgrove LOL nostalgia right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, there's a lot to like on the EPS for next week... Even with the big spread in tracks, many of the solutions get it done around here. Weenie maps will be out shortly. The clustering is pretty nuts for a 7-8 storm. Something definitely is happening next week, details TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: The clustering is pretty nuts for a 7-8 storm. Something definitely is happening next week, details TBD. Weenie handbook rule #9: The big ones are sniffed out early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to keep the D8+ deal in perspective a little. We just drilled down to fine details on an op run with more than a week to go. lol. Before we get to that period we still need to get through the current departing storm and 3 additional shortwaves embedded in the flow. The cascading effect of each feature greatly reduces accuracy as time goes on. The only guidance we should drill down with the details are the ensembles. Indeed, so to summarize, here's what we DO know: A. A big kahuna of moisture will likely be coming at us next Tues-Wed, and B. It will be cold to start Beyond we just don't know and are gonna have to be patient while all the chaotic activity sorts itself out. That fair to say? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: The clustering is pretty nuts for a 7-8 storm. Something definitely is happening next week, details TBD. Yea, it looks really good for now. 0z had more bigger hits but 12z just has more hits period. Many of the west tracks/mixed solutions are solid on the front end before ptype problems. Some are snow and sig ice. Not a bad run for a week+ away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it looks really good for now. 0z had more bigger hits but 12z just has more hits period. Many of the west tracks/mixed solutions are solid on the front end before ptype problems. Some are snow and sig ice. Not a bad run for a week+ away. Where is the R/S cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it looks really good for now. 0z had more bigger hits but 12z just has more hits period. Many of the west tracks/mixed solutions are solid on the front end before ptype problems. Some are snow and sig ice. Not a bad run for a week+ away. is there one member that dosent change lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: is there one member that dosent change lol? Yea, there more than just a few but all the big ones are mixed events from what I see. Some of the weaker solutions are able to track underneath. Unless I'm missing something I didn't see any of the larger ones take a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ji said: is there one member that dosent change lol? 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, there more than just a few but all the big ones are mixed events from what I see. Some of the weaker solutions are able to track underneath. Unless I'm missing something I didn't see any of the larger ones take a good track. This is a good setup for either a weak wave secs level all snow event or a bigger mixed event. Hard to get a big event all snow though. Kinda similar to PD2 setup but even that changed over and it took a perfectly timed/placed Arctic high to even keep it snow that long. VD2007 is a more typical way those end at our latitude if they become too amped up. If you want all snow root for a weaker wave. But there is room for a decent snow followed by big ice solution and that’s fun, especially if we’re protectong our snow pack from back to back weekend hits! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The positve trend the EPS had for snow for the past four days has reversed. I don't really think this is exciting , given it is a active 15 day period. But, maybe the best potential is after Feb 27. Certainly the EPS is not as enthusiastic as the GEFS. I am only using this tool as a guide and not gospel. Must be a mixture of events. As for screwing the mean, I did not look at indivdual members in regards to that. I know Bob spoke about a mix in the various members, versus all snow in his updates a little while ago. Certainly this can, and will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, frd said: The positve trend the EPS had for snow for the past four days has reversed. I don't really think this is exciting , given it is a active 15 day period. But, maybe the best potential is after Feb 27. Certainly the EPS is not as enthusiastic as the GEFS. I am only using this tool as a guide and not gospel. Must be a mixture of events. As for screwing the mean, I did not look at indivdual members in regards to that. I know Bob spoke about a mix in the various members, versus all snow in his updates a little while ago. Certainly this can, and will change. If you add 3-10" from CMD on N from today's event it looks pretty similar to the past few runs. IMO, it's rare to have the EPS show a 6+ mean areawide when there isnt a legit period on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 27 minutes ago, frd said: The positve trend the EPS had for snow for the past four days has reversed. I don't really think this is exciting , given it is a active 15 day period. But, maybe the best potential is after Feb 27. Certainly the EPS is not as enthusiastic as the GEFS. I am only using this tool as a guide and not gospel. Must be a mixture of events. As for screwing the mean, I did not look at indivdual members in regards to that. I know Bob spoke about a mix in the various members, versus all snow in his updates a little while ago. Certainly this can, and will change. Yeah not exciting at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 If you just look at the EPS mean through day 8 (midweek storm) looks like the mean is still increasing. Also, about 60% of the members are showing at least a moderate event (3 or more inches) in my quick count. (Disclaimer---I am still learning to interpret the ensembles; but it appears that the EPS is showing a much stronger signal for middle of next week than the weekend threat.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 i though the EPS run was a disaster. It never gets an -NAO. The Pac looks better but its still SE ridge centric but the Atlantic never get close to an -NAO. the D11-15 looks warmer. Not a good run imo...having these anomolies in Late Feb wont work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i though the EPS run was a disaster. It never gets an -NAO. The Pac looks better but its still SE ridge centric but the Atlantic never get close to an -NAO. the D11-15 looks warmer. Not a good run imo...having these anomolies in Late Feb wont work It's over dude. Almost became a good year but you know how it goes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's over dude. Almost became a good year but you know how it goes. somehow we went through another year(Dec-Feb) without a Greenland block lol. I mean...EPS took a step back right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: somehow we went through another year(Dec-Feb) without a Greenland block lol. I mean...EPS took a step back right? Depends on how you look at it. Is it showing a big fat red ball -NAO? Nope. Is the h5 mean conducive for snowfall? Yep. Is it slightly warmer than 0z? Yep. Does the Atlantic and confluence to the north look better at the end of the run? Yep. Are there 3 potential snow events in the next 10 days? Yep. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I may be one of the few people in here that doesn't even look at the models beyond 10 days. I just feel like everything is in constant flux and it's pretty much a guarantee things are going to change(sometimes drastically) by the time you get there. To each their own, I appreciate all your analysis. I personally just refuse to do it beyond day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I may be one of the few people in here that doesn't even look at the models beyond 10 days. I just feel like everything is in constant flux and it's pretty much a guarantee things are going to change(sometimes drastically) by the time you get there. To each their own, I appreciate all your analysis. I personally just refuse to do it beyond day 10. We're all here to discuss winter wx in the winter. D10+ gets a lot of attention for the sole reason that there's often no winter wx to discuss inside of 10 days. Not the case right now but has been for most of winter. If we didn't discuss D10+ this board would be crickets for long stretches of winter. I'd much prefer to discuss a huge D5 storm every single day and ignore everything else but that happens never so here we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ji said: i though the EPS run was a disaster. It never gets an -NAO. The Pac looks better but its still SE ridge centric but the Atlantic never get close to an -NAO. the D11-15 looks warmer. Not a good run imo...having these anomolies in Late Feb wont work All it would take is a small se adjustment to all the features and it’s great. I bet with soi mjo favorable we get that adjustment. Look at what happened this week coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 39 minutes ago, Ji said: somehow we went through another year(Dec-Feb) without a Greenland block lol. I mean...EPS took a step back right? Just hug the GEFS and pretend its as good as the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: All it would take is a small se adjustment to all the features and it’s great. I bet with soi mjo favorable we get that adjustment. Look at what happened this week coming up. It is literally noise. It's a mean @ D10+. There is no significant difference comparing it to the previous run. Ji is shooketh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Big storm inbound at 162 on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 It is literally noise. It's a mean @ D10+. There is no significant difference comparing it to the previous run. Ji is shooketh.Was comparing it to a few night ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Big storm inbound at 162 on GFS. I dont think this storm is suddenly going to disappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Big storm inbound at 162 on GFS. CAD weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 ....three systems in the next 6 days have to work through the area before we have real clarity on what is going to happen during the tuesday/wednesday timeframe. Everything is still on the table. The only thing that is probably locked in right now is that there will be a storm. Cutter, coastal, apps runner all on the table imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. Yeah, it's warmer. Shame. But, plot twist...it's 7 days away and get this...it will change like 387 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: My biggest fear came true on this run...not even a flake. Straight to ice. No, it didn't come true...why? Because it hasn't happened yet and we're 7+ days away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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