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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I like the look.  And it starts at night.  I'm cool with a thump and snow too and just like you said, I can see a path to more snow in the equation.  

Tuesday night?

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

2-4 inches of snow gets covered with this. Temps are in the 20s during the ZR along and west of 95

5k9se72.jpg

That's devastating down where people with no teeth live

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

2-4 inches of snow gets covered with this. Temps are in the 20s during the ZR along and west of 95

5k9se72.jpg

Shit

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

That's devastating down where people with no teeth live

enough ice and we'll all have no teeth

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's devastating down where people with no teeth live

lol- that's not very nice... but funny AF

Big ice rarely pans out but we're kinda due for one at some point. .5 - 1" of ice seems highly unlikely but if we get a solid coating of ice on top of a few inches of snow it will be a great event. I'm jonesing for a good glacier. 2007 was the last really good one unless I'm forgetting something

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Euro would be a disaster Tues-Wed .Yesterday was bad enough in a lot of areas in terms of downed trees and such. My folks out near Winchester still have no electricity. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro bringing the front end thump next week... you could see it coming well in advance. Nice trend. 

It's pretty much all thump... 850's hanging on then lift as soon as best precip is gone...its a classic 6-8 hour thump to drizzle/freezing drizzle type thing.   Bullzeyes DC this run with that feature, I get fringed by both lol 

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Just now, notvirga! said:

Euro would be a disaster Tues-Wed .Yesterday was bad enough in a lot of areas in terms of downed trees and such. My folks out near Winchester still have no electricity. 

I lost one of my big pine trees last night

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Ummmm its not really that much ice... at least not in the DC area.  By the time the mid levels warm the heavy precip is moving out.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ummmm its not really that much ice... at least not in the DC area.  By the time the mid levels warm the heavy precip is moving out.  

I'm not seeing the same thing as you? Do you have 3hr panels? 850s are retreating as the heavies move in. Looks like SN to ZR to me?

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

Here's the 850s at onset. The heavy stuff is over the next 6 hours. I'm seeing a lot of ice and prob some sleet. 

5zzTUmg.jpg

what does snow map look like?

askin for a friend - since the Euro is regaining its Kingship starting this weekend.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

Here's the 850s at onset. The heavy stuff is over the next 6 hours. I'm seeing a lot of ice and prob some sleet. 

5zzTUmg.jpg

Stephens City about to be gobbled up by Hong Kong Phooie

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ummmm its not really that much ice... at least not in the DC area.  By the time the mid levels warm the heavy precip is moving out.  

It's a lot of ice. 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

what does snow map look like?

askin for a friend - since the Euro is regaining its Kingship starting this weekend.

Might be catching some other frozen-ish stuff in there but the general idea.

Snow Euro Wed.png

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Might be catching some other frozen-ish stuff in there but the general idea.

Snow Euro Wed.png

Wxbell is a lot different with snowfall

pekIdmH.jpg

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ummmm its not really that much ice... at least not in the DC area.  By the time the mid levels warm the heavy precip is moving out.  

I thought I was looking at the wrong euro until you chimed in ty. Resembles yesterday's storm imo. Has some CAD but also appears to have alot less cold to work with this time and each run has shown less and less cold down to the surface. As you said gets scoured out verbatim before heavy rains move in. As far as a thump even up here I am above 0 at 850 almost right after precip moves in. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Wxbell is a lot different with snowfall

pekIdmH.jpg

For some reason, weather models doesn't have zoom 24 HR kuchera.  Your map looks spot on. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wxbell is a lot different with snowfall

pekIdmH.jpg

Man West Virginia gets the shaft for real...seeing that kind of isolation makes me go hmmm

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That Euro map is probably wrong but I'll take 7 inches on top of the 4 I'll get this weekend.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

That Euro map is probably wrong but I'll take 7 inches on top of the 4 I'll get this weekend.

Bob's is right.  Mine is including more frozen as snow.  Its 2-4 then ice.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Bob's is right.  Mine is including more frozen as snow.  Its 2-4 then ice.

Regardless, it would be great for you guys to have snow on snow.  While I'm fringed for now, still like the trends and in truth just want snow in the MA, as i know eventually, I'll get mine.  We got a couple inches Mon night, so i cant complain.  

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34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's devastating down where people with no teeth live

Hey ma look....

F8C1AC5A-ECB9-4629-83A7-F7E9F0AC07F5.jpeg

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not seeing the same thing as you? Do you have 3hr panels? 850s are retreating as the heavies move in. Looks like SN to ZR to me?

Hard to say without in between panels...but this is what I was seeing, and this is silly at this range but let's pretend its 6 hours away.  

EC1.thumb.png.ee0bec5513dfd764c20f9e0da36727ba.png

That was all snow...its close but the algorithm using temps at the end of the 6 hour period estimated snow, probably an isothermal profile.  

But look at the way the cooling at 850 stretches back to the SW, and when you look at the precip pattern on the next plot it looks like that is mirroring where the heavy precip is.  This is the kind of signature to me that indicates a thump where the heavy precip keeps the column cool and then as it ends we transition to ice. 

ec2.thumb.png.a723d5fabeeb1e4f4fe6857a5e65d2cc.png

The precip on this next panel indicates that towards the end of that 6 hour period the precip was pretty much over, just some spotty light precip around.  And the 850 line only moved to just north of the PA line...it could easily jump up there in a couple hours once heavy precip moves out.  Also...the heavy precip will be where the best cooling is and usually sets up along the WAA...once the WAA wins the precip shuts off..you almost never see that heavy area of precip SOUTH of the rain/snow line in this setup.  It's almost always just north and then you get the changeover and lighter precip.  

ec3.thumb.png.03151307d59e0f6fb99c63f16cd0784c.png

So somewhere in that second panel during the really heavy thump of precip it changes over...but my guess from the limited evidence is that wont happen during the heaviest precip...that as the precip moves out the temps will warm, but such an extreme thump as that woulid keep the column cool enough for a snow/sleet mix at least...and not freezing rain IMO until later.  Of course this is crazy for such range, and if you remove the extreme thump then all bets are off...but if the area does get that much precip in such a short time...near the boundary, its probably mostly snow/sleet, and less freezing rain.  

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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

somebody want to clear Ralph and PSU's cache

The problem with Ralph is we root for different things and have different climo. I think the euro looks pretty good/fun and Ralph hates it because the solution sucks for him

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