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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today)

Much of Maryland has been under a winter storm warning in 5 out of the last 6 march's so you shouldn't be convinced of anything yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

What makes you say that?

I guess I have a bit of consistency bias...that nothing has worked out all winter--and that a strong finish in March is just hard to believe. Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare! And we know the story on March snow...sometimes, but harder to come by. I could be very wrong about this, of course...I just don't like the idea of having to rely on March to save winter in Central MD.

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4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Much of Maryland has been under a winter storm warning in 5 out of the last 6 march's so you shouldn't be convinced of anything yet. 

For the cities it's only been a couple of those times (and last year doesn't count, lol 3 inches ain't a warning). Now higher elevations? Sure!

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We get more and larger snow events in March than we do in December. Especially recently. Punting march + Dec climo = 8 weeks of winter. Good luck working inside of that little box. 

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In 2017, I entered March with a seasonal snowfall total of 3.3" and finished at 13.3".  Last year, by the first of March I was at 7.3" and finished the year with 22.7".

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Winter is coming.

march.thumb.png.4d40554ada386c66be2f00e40062890e.png

 

 

Hour 384 is my favorite. If it was always hour 384, we would live in a snow globe.

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18 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, Judah Cohen tweeted today that FV3 becomes the U.S Operational model on March 1.

Plenty of digital snow tracking

Edit... into July

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46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare!

This is true of any week in any winter, really.  That certain time periods have more snow events compared to others is somewhat due to chance, somewhat also due to actual climatological factors I suppose.  But that doesn't preclude any time between December and March.  I remember in 2016, there was some discussion that we've had really good snows in early and late January, but none really around the 3rd week (maybe due to the fact that's the climatologically coldest time of year, and tends to be drier on average).  Then we got the blizzard with 20"+ on the Jan. 22-23.  Irony at its finest!

I've been here since summer of 2001.  Never saw a decent March snow at all until 2009.  Then we got on a relative March heater with an event in late March 2013, three solid events in 2014, another in early March 2015, and yet another in both 2017 and 2018 (those two took a bit of the edge off a couple of crap winters, too).  Heck, I saw good snow on my birthday (on the 25th) in back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014.  In fact, I'd almost argue that I've seen more snow events in March than December since I've lived here...though of course one of those December ones was a HECS in 2009!

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25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Hour 384 is my favorite. If it was always hour 384, we would live in a snow globe.

Somehow reminds me of a sign on the door of a bar when I was in college...it said, "at 2AM, everyone looks good!"  Same idea, perhaps!!:lol:

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Somehow reminds me of a sign on the door of a bar when I was in college...it said, "at 2AM, everyone looks good!"  Same idea, perhaps!!:lol:

She’s a 2 at 10 and a 10 at 2

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Ugh, Icon talk.  Anyway, the GFS is a rainstorm now, lol. As the Models Turn.    Way too early to be super worried about any of this.  Just keep the storm on the map and give me one good model that holds the cold or keeps it nearby.

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4 hours ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, Judah Cohen tweeted today that FV3 becomes the U.S Operational model on March 1.

Ruh-roh...lol That model has no common sense! I mean, are they really gonna put it out there like it is now? How will it be anymore reliable?

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Just now, Fozz said:

I believe the date is March 20... you can correct me if I'm mistaken.

         Yes, that is the current target.    

        

 

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Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter

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