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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Question—do we think this still has further upside potential? Trends obviously been great today, but are we done? I keep getting this feeling some further surprises may come to fruition. 

It's tricky. I'm a little skeptical of the euro qpf output for the trailing energy as it is. A range if 4-10" is already a significant event for what transpires in the upper levels. This isn't a classic miller A at all.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's tricky. I'm a little skeptical of the euro qpf output for the trailing energy as it is. A range if 4-10" is already a significant event for what transpires in the upper levels. This isn't a classic miller A at all.

It should be an interesting 18z, but really it’s probably time to just watch it unfold and enjoy it all. Can’t wait for a hopeful Cowboys victory / Jebwalk in the snow late tonight. 

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

I realize that the 12z parent NAM got everyone's attention, but it's a common rule that when the NAM parent and nest differ significantly, and the nest is line with other guidance, it shouldn't take anyone more than a half second to toss the parent NAM solution.

What about the 12z WRF-NMM?  This is based off the parent NAM correct?

wrf-nmm_apcpn_neus_48.png

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

It should be an interesting 18z, but really it’s probably time to just watch it unfold and enjoy it all. Can’t wait for a hopeful Cowboys victory / Jebwalk in the snow late tonight. 

Yeah I'm really looking forward to a Ravens victory myself. Oh wait.

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