clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The Euro actually adjusted the precip max pretty close to where the NAM had it. It just isnt as juicy. So happy everyone in the forum has a warning level event to share. It has been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually get the warning too. It doesn't really matter if your area is in a warning or not. It wont change the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Light snow has begun in Round Hill. 31/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Radar returns over Charlottesville are slightly misleading, but its been flurrying here for about a half hour now. 33/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Quasievil said: I know it's nowcasting time but has anyone looked at the 12Z Euro? Curious if it's upped it's totals in response to what the NAM thinks it sees or if it stays in line. @Quasievil 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Kuchera ftmfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It doesn't really matter if your area is in a warning or not. It wont change the outcome. I know, which is why I said in the previous post that I don't really care that I'm not in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Shout out to the reference to January 2010 yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Snowing here in Woodbridge. 34.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Flurries have begun. 2 miles north of Sterling. 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Light flurries in Montclair. It’s go time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: The QPF keeps moving up but hits the Balt City Brick wall Models are playing catch up. The warning snows will be across the entire CWA by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Stormpc said: Snowing here in Woodbridge. 34.2 mping that shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Light snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Started snowing (pixie dust) here in Augusta County at 12:20. Big fatties started mixing in around 1:10. Light snow here now with flakes of all sizes. 31 degrees. So satisfying to see it falling after tracking it for what seems like forever! Good luck to all in the subforum (including mby)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Much earlier start than was forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: I know, which is why I said in the previous post that I don't really care that I'm not in one. Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentredMan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I need the 18z nam to run now. The anticipation is killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 34.1/16 overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1.5 deg tilt DBZ's are sneaking across the bay. Expecting flurries soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 This is probably the last RGEM ensemble update for this storm. It stuck with the same general idea, but now with more snow. I figured out how to get probability plots for the whole storm rathern than just 24-hour chunks. I have to plot total precipitation, not just qpf as snow. I'm not going to show the 5mm plot, because at least 90% of ensemble members show everyone in this region getting at least 5mm of precip. Even PSU. Here's the 15 mm plot. Not all of that will fall as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, LeesburgWx said: I need the 18z nam to run now. The anticipation is killing me It’s going to come back down to reality. It can’t sustain such ridiculousness for that long. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple. I recall several nice events in which I've seen 5-6" from an event that only had an advisory. With some luck, this one could also join that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Pretty darn good model agreement for S MD to get pummeled. Good for Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, cae said: This is probably the last RGEM ensemble update for this storm. It stuck with the same general idea, but now with more snow. I figured out how to get probability plots for the whole storm rathern than just 24-hour chunks. I have to plot total precipitation, not just qpf as snow. I'm not going to show the 5mm plot, because at least 90% of ensemble members show everyone in this region getting at least 5mm of precip. Even PSU. Here's the 15 mm plot. Not all of that will fall as snow. Nice @usedtobe jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It’s going to come back down to reality. It can’t sustain such ridiculousness for that long. Trust me. Can't it tho? I mean it is the NAM. I have faith that the NAM is gonna NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If the 18z nam shows equal or greater than 12z I will make Ji an admin for 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Snowing here in Woodbridge. 34.2 light snow where im at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 34/23 Light Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 First flakes in Burke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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