yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is tucked. Big coastal but we rain in between front end and ccb. Good sign though because fv3 has been weak/sheared until this run. Crushes sne tho Snow to rain to snow is okay... as long as the most accumulated snow is on the CCB IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Hey band the term "north trend" too until we actually get one again, lolLast storm had a major north jump. Charlottesville went from 2-4” to a 1’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, attml said: For what it is worth the current Bay water temp is 43.9 degrees at Thomas Point Lighthouse. It was 59.4 degrees on 11/01/18. That is only a 15.5 degree drop in over 2 months. By contrast last year it was 33.1 degrees at Thomas Point Light on 1/6/18 and Round Bay (the widest point of the Severn River had frozen all the way across by 1/4/18 and their were people walking on the ice by 1/7/18). That is a 10 degree swing! If we have any marginally cold storms the bay being 10 years warmer could have an impact. Come on cold weather! 10 years of heat is gonna take a while to cool sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Your biggest fears are coming true Not gonna let me live it down, are ya? I left that meltdown in 2018...new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Snow to rain to snow is okay... as long as the most accumulated snow is on the CCB IMO It's a bad track and would be a bummer. Too amped leading in but it was a huge shift from all other runs and we're forever away from ops nailing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Been cleaning so. Missed the excitement but knew gfs was getting ready to spit out a fantasy snow. Fun to see. Wil it hold.. Probably not.. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 SW Virginia snows from Saturday morning to Monday afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Maps coming ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Maps coming ?I posted a map in the Digital thread, OP snow maps probably aren’t worth dropping here at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I liked the fact you could see sizable changes at h5 at hr 114- 120 ..nice ! Some issues off the pacNW coast visible at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Remember Thursday at 4pm when everyone had pretty much written off winter with a few people holding out hope for a switch after the 20th? That seems like an eternity ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Last storm had a major north jump. Charlottesville went from 2-4” to a 1’. That must have been 2 storms ago, at least. Last storm, Charlottesville went from forecast of 1-2" a day before only to end up getting 8-12". (12/9/18) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Don't need a deathband when its snowing at 21-22 degrees Fluff factor in full effect Yea man, storm personalities vary so much depending on temps/rates/dendritic snow growth etc. Some like paste bombs but my favorite will always be instant stickage high ratio fluff. Reminds me of my colorado years. Jan 2016 was amazing in that department. Beat all 3 09-10 storm totals in my yard but what made it really special was instant stickage and excellent ratios throughout. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Last storm had a major north jump. Charlottesville went from 2-4” to a 1’. just not enough of a bump north for most of us. I ended up with an inch and half in Opal, VA (Just south of Warrenton) and I'm about 55 miles north of CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 50 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Y’all go ahead and reel this one in. It’s a stepdown process. Where’s Chuck with that 84hr NAM? Still showing some blocking? It's all part of my master plan to build up the MA snow pack so that cold air masses just skate down from the north with no moderation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: just not enough of a bump north for most of us. I ended up with an inch and half in Opal, VA (Just south of Warrenton) and I'm about 55 miles north of CHO Right, but it was a 150 mile north bump in the last 36 hours, so it ended up helping the southern half of the subforum very much. Very tight gradient, though, you are correct on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 That must have been 2 storms ago, at least. Last storm, Charlottesville went from forecast of 1-2" a day before only to end up getting 8-12". (12/9/18)That’s the one I meant, just might’ve got the numbers slightly wrong. The closest reporting station to my dorm measured 12.3”, might’ve only been a 1-2” forecast beforehand, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 FV3 GFS is mostly rain, but it has the storm now. Pittsburgh to Boston gets clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 GEFS comes in weaker and less precip for next weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 cold on the gefs at the end. That is a stable triple trough alignment with high latitude blocking. That pattern can stick around a while. It's as hard to break down as a crap one that is stable, locked in, and fully supported by the global pattern drivers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: GEFS comes in weaker and less precip for next weekends storm. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Gefs looks less suppressive though. The height field relaxed some over the east. And there isn't like a ton of big NC snows in the members. It was just weaker with the system overall. If either the stj or NS systems trend stronger this time i think it hits. The flow isn't that suppressive. It will squash some weak sauce Vort but if it's amped coming into the east like last time (or most systems the last several months) it won't get forced under that much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs looks less suppressive though. The height field relaxed some over the east. And there isn't like a ton of big NC snows in the members. It was just weaker with the system overall. If either the stj or NS systems trend stronger this time i think it hits. The flow isn't that suppressive. It will squash some weak sauce Vort but if it's amped coming into the east like last time (or most systems the last several months) it won't get forced under that much. Regardless, it cut down on both precip and snowfall. Precip most notably. A bit surprising given the shorter lead and typical op "hive" clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: cold on the gefs at the end. That is a stable triple trough alignment with high latitude blocking. That pattern can stick around a while. It's as hard to break down as a crap one that is stable, locked in, and fully supported by the global pattern drivers. Is that the fabled 'ridge bridge'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that the fabled 'ridge bridge'? Connect the blues in the northern plains and yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that the fabled 'ridge bridge'? Not the one that we've talked about a lot recently. It was the Scandinavian to AK ridge with the tpv trapped under it and wobbling all over eastern Canada. Also responsible for prolific snow during a raging +nao when we shouldnt have gotten much snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 If the full latitude trough and towering +pna/-epo ridge verifies there could be a monster storm in the cards for the east coast or Appalachians sometime later this month. Ens are going that way and now ops are starting to show it in fantasyland I'm looking forward to the first op run showing h5 closing off in the deep south and going haywire with some sort of extreme solution. Fv3 isn't that far off from the idea. Need leads to shorten and the look to hold so maybe later this week. Might get a weenie hall of fame op run here shortly 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that the fabled 'ridge bridge'? But it’s close. Here is the 500 and you can see where the cold is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Anyone extrapolating the NAM tonight? I’ll see myself out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Anyone extrapolating the NAM tonight? I’ll see myself out Lol wouldn’t be the end of the world. I will say this caught my attention just in the essence that I’ve seen quite a few people diss the Canadian here lately. The Canadian nailed my 14” storm back in early December down this way so... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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