Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: When ya say "subsidence"...what do you meam? Sinking air. The oppostite of lift (and precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 And it's a SNE bomb... great XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ggem is no storm...prob good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maestro wondered about how we can get little while south and north get a lot. Lol 12/26/10 right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I’ll take it. Not proud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maestro wondered about how we can get little while south and north get a lot. Lol After the past month if it goes down like the 00z it's going to be very ugly in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 So annoyed....the ns screwed us on dec 9 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maestro wondered about how we can get little while south and north get a lot. Lol What would we want that third SW from the TPV to do? Phase in on the backside? Verbatim, you’d think we would get some snow as the low heads NE though. I’m fine with SNE getting bullseyed but would be great to get on the board for meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: After the past month if it goes down like the 00z it's going to be very ugly in here I bet we get an inch maybe 2. Good enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: I’ll take it. Not proud In reality , ground truth would be alot worse than depicted I would imagine around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I bet we get an inch maybe 2. Good enough Lol while SNE gets 1 to 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I’ll take it. Not proud Am I seeing the same run as some of these people? I’d happily take it. It’s not like the south scores that much more. 3-5” in DCA would be great. Solid temps pretty much everywhere. Close to warning level. I’d be bummed in Charlottesville though. 1-2” won’t cut it after the footer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Isn't the 0z GFS similar to 12z EURO here? Missing us and hitting NE harder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FV3 looks like it has a primary into KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: What would we want that third SW from the TPV to do? Phase in on the backside? Verbatim, you’d think we would get some snow as the low heads NE though. I’m fine with SNE getting bullseyed but would be great to get on the board for meteorological winter. We really dont want it at all honestly. H5 closes off north of us because of it. If it has to exist we want it to be slower and dig deeper. As is I'd be totally happy with it but its something worry about. That kind of progression can skip over us if it breaks wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 30 hours of crap snow. Potential is there though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Lol while SNE gets 1 to 2 feet I guess. Still time and you never know. Little shift and we get more. Mid levels look solid. It’s ok...I’m desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol while SNE gets 1 to 2 feet I never understand why people compare DC to SNE and get bent out of shape when they score and we get less...my average snowfall is about 17-20” while they’re 2-3x that (or more). If I got 1” while a place 15 miles away got 1-2’ then that’s another story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Northing wrong with this for the moment... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Richmond, VA is now a snow town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol while SNE gets 1 to 2 feet Chances of this being the final outcome are slim to none but In these set ups we ussually end up high and dry. I Think the GFS tends to spread out precip the further you go out in time. As depicted It would be a kick below the waist lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: FV3 looks like it has a primary into KY Thump to ice to dryslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Rather see it south of me than north. That can easily pull north..maybe not easily but I still think needing ticks north in that set up is easier. Maybe I am nuts. I am nuts but will take anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maestro wondered about how we can get little while south and north get a lot. Lol That's not what you would call a lot on this run...See, I didn't understand how the south gets more before the low bombs too late and hits areas north. Does the south get all the moisture predominantly the southern stream first? (Hence the high totals there), while the north gets the high totals from the late phass? And really dude? Ain't like I asked a dumb question...simply learning is all. I'm not naive to our failures here (it's just the details of such I'm learning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Thump to ice to dryslot. Take that too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: FV3 looks like it has a primary into KY Yea, i like the fv3 more than the gfs. Thats a good setup for a good front end thump. Cad would minimize damage from rain if it flips and it's safer than a strong ns shortwave dropping in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Thump to ice to dryslot. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We really dont want it at all honestly. H5 closes off north of us because of it. If it has to exist we want it to be slower and dig deeper. As is I'd be totally happy with it but its something worry about. That kind of progression can skip over us if it breaks wrong It sort of reminded me of a Miller B as I watched it unfold in terms of us getting stuck in the middle of everything. An OP won’t get this kind of stuff right at this range but something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Link? https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It sort of reminded me of a Miller B as I watched it unfold in terms of us getting stuck in the middle of everything. An OP won’t get this kind of stuff right at this range but something to keep an eye on for sure. It's too similar to boxing day. The southern wave on that storm was strong and should have hit us no problem but that strong ns wave couldnt have been timed worse and the rest is history. Just 3 days out we were still square in the game but then the wheels came off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts