showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait seriously? So it pounded Raleigh, went off the coast, then turned up? Troughs going negative tilt. Something runs to our south and off the coast then gets caught by the trough to the west going negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Vigorous southern slider pounds NC then moves off the coast before northern energy phases with it, trough turns negative, tracks north to the benchmark. Is that even possible? Lol (because something that pounds Raleigh and pounds north...would have to pound us too, right? Whereas just Raleigh and a whiff here...would be a whiff north as well!)Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait seriously? So it pounded Raleigh, went off the coast, then turned up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 To be clear the foot in Raleigh was the December storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Wow...smh Had to be a rare occurrence to fail THAT badly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Storms usually hit north of us first in a pattern change. This would fit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wow...smh Had to be a rare occurrence to fail THAT badly... Rare? Happens far to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Rare? Happens far to often. Notice I said THAT badly...as in having north, south, and east and still a miss. Misses to the north OR south are more common than what happened there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Rare? Happens far to often. Yea, every miller B or hybrid that digs deep enough can produce nightmare results. Maestro is still in innocence stage of the learning curve. We were all there once. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, every miller B or hybrid that digs deep enough can produce nightmare results. Maestro is still in innocence stage of the learning curve. We were all there once. I'm not naive to the fact that we can miss easily...I remember that storm...just didn't remember the south making out that well that time. I wanna see more maps from past misses that look exactly like that...to see how often that specifically happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Notice I said THAT badly...as in having north, south, and east and still a miss. Misses to the north OR south are more common than what happened there! Notice I said that it happens far to often? And I meant it. Extreme cases too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention That ain't where I'm at...I'm not naive to the fact that we will miss...I was just talking about the exact dec 2010 situation. I didn't know that in particular had happened that many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention I wish we could pin this as a headline on the forum. Would help to keep expectations in check for a few posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: I wish we could pin this as a headline on the forum. Would help to keep expectations in check for a few posters. Low expectations don't equal no disappointment. A miss is still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 D15 EPS is a good look. Low heights centered over the east, -NAO building, +PNA, Aleutian low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, every miller B or hybrid that digs deep enough can produce nightmare results. Maestro is still in innocence stage of the learning curve. We were all there once. The term Miller B is not permitted to be spoken at our dinner table. It stresses me out so much I lose my appetite. :-) Seriously I hope we get a well modeled MECS without any surprises. Like PD II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 42 minutes ago, frd said: I really have to read Judah's blog tomorrow, I really don't see this SSWE producing outcomes like 2005-06, but he did say make no assumptions. Also, it appears he is just using the GFS model ? He is one of the worst talking heads. He throws out everything and the kitchen sink each winter then spins like crazy later. I don't care what he says. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: The term Miller B is not permitted to be spoken at our dinner table. It stresses me out so much I lose my appetite. :-) Seriously I hope we get a well modeled MECS without any surprises. Like PD II I'm tellin ya. I know its a way for us to snow, but heartbreak far outweighs hits for all of us in the jip zone. Just have to hope for the earlier transfers, or really late transfer to jip Boston. I typically don't root against anyone not getting snow, but friggit. Its our turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Talking about from looking over the individual members separately? Looking at the means I thought we saw a good improvement at 500 and especially the mslp. This is a case where the mean is misleading. As we get closer a mean pressure can look better because of a convergence on a general track and amplitude. So by losing members that had a really flat solution it will make the new consensus better. But if that consensus is no good for us and if lost a minority cluster that was NW and had a good solution (but wasn't impacting the mean slp plots much because they were removed from the majority region of low pressure and outnumbered) it's actually a bad run. EPS moved towards a more amped overall solution but late developing for us and lost some members from the tucked in camp that blasted us. Now if future runs continue to trend more amplified then it could become better again but this run itself was a slight step back from 0z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention That's why I wish we could cash in early in the pattern. Then most (not ji) will chill out and not make this place a dumpster fire with every bad model run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This is a case where the mean is misleading. As we get closer a mean pressure can look better because of a convergence on a general track and amplitude. So by losing members that had a really flat solution it will make the new consensus better. But if that consensus is no good for us and if lost a minority cluster that was NW and had a good solution (but wasn't impacting the mean slp plots much because they were removed from the majority region of low pressure and outnumbered) it's actually a bad run. EPS moved towards a more amped overall solution but late developing for us and lost some members from the tucked in camp that blasted us. Now if future runs continue to trend more amplified then it could become better again but this run itself was a slight step back from 0z imo. Figured that might be the case. Most times I would do a quick flip through of the individuals to get a sense of agreement between then and the mean. But seeing as I have no vested interest in this storm as I will be out of town I just haven't spent the time digging into it that I normally would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Figured that might be the case. Most times I would do a quick flip through of the individuals to get a sense of agreement between then and the mean. But seeing as I have no vested interest in this storm as I will be out of town I just haven't spent the time digging into it that I normally would. That's right, only thinking of yourself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: That's right, only thinking of yourself. When Vegas is on the table snow seems to take a back seat. Doesn’t mean he can’t root for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Not to put more emphasis on snow maps but good to see totals continue increasing in the LR which tells me the pattern change is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: He is one of the worst talking heads. He throws out everything and the kitchen sink each winter then spins like crazy later. I don't care what he says. He sells the snake oil. Seem to be lots of buyers on twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 If nothing else, the gfs is noticeably less suppressive at h5 d4-5. Not a bad thing considering its been the most suppressed model last couple days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If nothing else, the gfs is noticeably less suppressive at h5 d4-5. Not a bad thing considering its been the most suppressed model last couple days Surface looks more like the EURO. Snows are further north into KY at 138 and reaching near DC at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Snowing at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Happy hour delivering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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