MD Snow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Anybody else worried about suppression? The FV3 has been hinting at it for its last couple of runs. 2 southern sliders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I like this look of the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I agree with previous posts today about snowmaps and their limited usefulness but i really like meteogram output. Gives a concise snapshot of statistical probability at longer leads, timing of the potential event and also gives a defined range of possibilities. 18z gefs meteo shows a majority of at least a trace but only 3 decent hits. Best chance we've had by far since early Dec though 00z increases those hits a lil bit ETA: I see you used GAI... I used DCA. Just noticed it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 e6.. We fringe In all seriousness... snow mean was upped a decent bit, especially through day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: We need to take advantage of these threats before the real pattern change. A good winter snows in marginal situations....we got a bonus week next week when it was suppose to be an epic torch. If we get to jan 20 still shutout it will be a disaster imo Ji, you really need to look up the definition of disaster. disaster (dĭ-zăsˈtər, -săsˈ-) ► n. An occurrence causing widespread destruction and distress; a catastrophe. n. A grave misfortune. So this is a disaster. And this. And this. But this? Not so much. For what a normal person considers a disaster they normal bring in this for relief. Or this. Or this In your case. This is probably more appropriate. Or this. Or this. And yes. Probably even this. 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 39 minutes ago, Cobalt said: e6.. We fringe In all seriousness... snow mean was upped a decent bit, especially through day 10 I prefer e29 though this ensemble member is probably why the mean jumped a good amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Nice disco from LWX this morning about next weekend: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some upslope showers may linger into Thursday along the Allegheny Front, but chances definitely begin to decrease compared to Wednesday. Behind this, a cold, strong area of high pressure will be building across central Canada and into the Great Lakes region through Friday. So, Thursday and Friday certainly look to remain dry at this point, with highs probably not getting out of the 30s for much of the region. For the weekend, the pattern becomes active once again. A few features need to be watched. Strong high pressure continues to build east, into eastern Ontario and western Quebec. This high pressure looks to be 1040mb+ in strength, meaning it will likely pack some seriously cold air. Meanwhile, across the CONUS, three separate upper-level features will traverse the U.S. Friday through Sunday. The first will be a shortwave exiting the desert southwest, the second will be moving out of Canada into the Great Lakes region or northeast U.S., and the final will be a second shortwave moving out of the western U.S., which will act to kick the first two out. Now, all of this being said, some wintry weather will be possible across the area due to the combination of all of these factors. Latest deterministic guidance continues to show some sort of surface low developing over the southeast and moving towards the region, and some ensemble members also support this as well. However, the timing and location of each of these features will make all the difference. Uncertainty is very high at this point that we even see anything, so this is just something to monitor at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looking over the EPS and the look for the possible storm around the 13th has degraded. High pressure to the north and west is coming in much stronger so we are seeing a suppressed and somewhat progressive low. 500's tend to favor this as the flow flattened somewhat to the south and we are seeing higher heights to our NW. Snowfall means on the other hand have increased through the 14th to where we see 1 1/2 inches through the cities. This can be attributed to 3 very nice hits through the general region. So though the means have back slid somewhat it does seem that the EPS sees the possibility of everything coming together for a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looking at the EPS mslp it would suggest a very active period from our day 13th storm through and beyond the end of the extended as we see a continuous parade of individual member low pressures showing in the east and in the Atlantic. The one distinct threat that we have been following (19th-20th) continues to show and the signal has gotten even stronger on the mslp. At 500s we see some minor changes here and there and may have degraded just a touch IMO. But they still support the possibility of storm through that time period. Snowfall means through that period have upticked as well from the 12Z. Guesstimate of an 1/2 to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 The 00z GFS 9s trying to troll me for the latter half of MLK weekend. But I'll wait until a week out to hunt for my flamethrower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looking at the 5 day mean (day 11-15) the general overall pattern on the EPS generally remains the same. About the only difference we are seeing that might be worth mentioning is that we are seeing the PV coming in stronger as well as also we see a slight adjustment of its placement closer to Greenland. These changes have us seeing the pv intruding more so into the NAO domain. But at this range the differences are minor and can be attributed to being noise more then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I will save Ji the trouble. The GFS is an epic disaster. The worst I have ever seen. Have no idea how we can live with this. This winter is a complete FAIL. This hobby sucks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Now for everyone else that isn't named Ji. Actually really like what I see. About the only downside is that the Jan 13th storm is extremely suppressed and progressive which is what I have been expecting to see with that feature all along. Everything else shows quite a bit of promise despite the lack of snow showing up on the maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I will save Ji the trouble. The GFS is an epic disaster. The worst I have ever seen. Have no idea how we can live with this. This winter is a complete FAIL. This hobby sucks. I can never tell on this forum anymore - sarcasm? Cold and dry? warm and wet? eta: should have waited... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I can never tell on this forum anymore - sarcasm? Cold and dry? warm and wet? eta: should have waited... I am a slow typer. Should have just posted both comments together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I will save Ji the trouble. The GFS is an epic disaster. The worst I have ever seen. Have no idea how we can live with this. This winter is a complete FAIL. This hobby sucks. Jan 18.....985mb slp at the benchmark middle-late January and rain back into the Appalachians. Epic fail. Eta: After the 13th threat. Strong signal for a big storm showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I still fully expect the gefs to flip to the putrid look the eps had while the gefs said a good pattern was coming...it's what the models do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 985mb slp at the benchmark middle-late January and rain back into the Appalachians. Epic fail. I see 3 opportunities in a matter of 5/6 days. And not piddling events either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I still fully expect the gefs to flip to the putrid look the eps had while the gefs said a good pattern was coming...it's what the models do Ji, quit hacking other's accounts. You do know that is against the law, Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 One of the best practices to utilize in forecasting is always trusting a models thermals after truncation /s All jokes aside, it's certainly pegging to be an active period upcoming for the east coast beginning Jan 18th onward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Ji, quit hacking other's accounts. You do know that is against the law, Right? Lol I'm just talking about the volatility period we are in now. Chuck and Ji a true fairytale story 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol I'm just talking about the volatility period we are in now. Chuck and Ji a true fairytale story 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: One of the best practices to utilize in forecasting is always trusting a models thermals after truncation /s All jokes aside, it's certainly pegging to be an active period upcoming for the east coast beginning Jan 18th onward. Honestly that look the 18th through and beyond the extended is drool worthy at 500's. When the the first storm on the 18th started showing up I had pretty much resigned myself to it being a rainer and setting us for what follows but the GFS suggests that may not be so much the case. Could be an epic stretch if it hits on all cylinders. But !2 days + away so lets see where it goes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Honestly that look the 18th through and beyond the extended is drool worthy at 500's. When the the first storm on the 18th started showing up I had pretty much resigned myself to it being a rainer and setting us for what follows but the GFS suggests that may not be so much the case. Could be an epic stretch if it hits on all cylinders. But !2 days + away so lets see where it goes.It’s tough to not like what is being advertised with respect to the long wave pattern. The models are going to be a little bouncy during the next week with the transition taking place, but expect them to settle more beginning next weekend. There are no shortage of s/w’s moving through the PAC and onshore the CONUS. After we establish a better thermal regime across the central and eastern US, it’s going to come down to just timing everything out and seeing if we can get phasing to occur. I wouldn’t rule out a northern stream digger as well. PNA is going to push positive and the wave amplitude could be pretty significant at times. PSU brought up 2010 and 2013 as examples, and agree that’s a way we can score in upcoming pattern. I think we see a min of 6 viable changes rest of winter with probably a couple near misses thrown in with Miller B’s. Southern stream ripe and will not stop. It’s just nice to seeing a PAC transition to a more favorable east coast setup in the long term. This past system for y’all was a major slap in the face. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s tough to not like what is being advertised with respect to the long wave pattern. The models are going to be a little bouncy during the next week with the transition taking place, but expect them to settle more beginning next weekend. There are no shortage of s/w’s moving through the PAC and onshore the CONUS. After we establish a better thermal regime across the central and eastern US, it’s going to come down to just timing everything out and seeing if we can get phasing to occur. I wouldn’t rule out a northern stream digger as well. PNA is going to push positive and the wave amplitude could be pretty significant at times. PSU brought up 2010 and 2013 as examples, and agree that’s a way we can score in upcoming pattern. I think we see a min of 6 viable changes rest of winter with probably a couple near misses thrown in with Miller B’s. Southern stream ripe and will not stop. It’s just nice to seeing a PAC transition to a more favorable east coast setup in the long term. This past system for y’all was a major slap in the face. . What is being advertised in the extended has about as much promise as I have ever seen in the last 20+ years of tracking. And I think there are fairly strong signs that we could see this extended for quite a period of time if not through the rest of winter. But what models show and what the actual reality is quite often never meet so let's see where we go from here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Honestly that look the 18th through and beyond the extended is drool worthy at 500's. When the the first storm on the 18th started showing up I had pretty much resigned myself to it being a rainer and setting us for what follows but the GFS suggests that may not be so much the case. Could be an epic stretch if it hits on all cylinders. But !2 days + away so lets see where it goes. Exactly! I would hope nobody thinks those thermals are even close or should even be looked at tbh. My post above was to tongue in cheek and a distant jab at Ji and Chuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Exactly! I would hope nobody thinks those thermals are even close or should even be looked at tbh. My post above was to tongue in cheek and a distant jab at Ji and Chuck Starting to get a touch concerned about that period. At least as concerned as you can be for something that is 12 + days out. Flight from Vegas comes back on the 19th and am starting to wonder if that may be an issue. Really don't want to be stranded in some airport for an extended period of time waiting to be able to fly into BWI. And with the signals growing stronger with what looks to be an active period centered on that time I have to wonder. Of course I could always fly back a little sooner but i would hate to cut our trip short. Then again, I guess I could stay a day or two longer in Vegas which wouldn't be such a bad thing but of course then I would be missing out on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Fv3 for this weekend looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Starting to get a touch concerned about that period. At least as concerned as you can be for something that is 12 + days out. Flight from Vegas comes back on the 19th and am starting to wonder if that may be an issue. Really don't want to be stranded in some airport for an extended period of time waiting to be able to fly into BWI. And with the signals growing stronger with what looks to be an active period centered on that time I have to wonder. Of course I could always fly back a little sooner but i would hate to cut our trip short. Then again, I guess I could stay a day or two longer in Vegas which wouldn't be such a bad thing but of course then I would be missing out on snow.I fly in the 18th, so I feel your pain. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Look at 6z gfs after 240. 3 closed 500 lows with great tracks. FWIW, it does seem to be a trend this year to get strong 500 shortwaves. If we ever get some cold air and that continues, eventually we’ll cash in with a big storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Look at 6z gfs after 240. 3 closed 500 lows with great tracks. FWIW, it does seem to be a trend this year to get strong 500 shortwaves. If we ever get some cold air and that continues, eventually we’ll cash in with a big storm.Weve been saying that since november 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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