pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs washed out the wrench shortwave that the euro has near the lakes and this vort panel is decent. Bridge that gap between NS and STJ and maybe just maybe. Oh and yeah replace that LP that was muckin up the NS with an H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I suspect there should be some nice hits in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Fv3 has nothing next weekend but a monster d12+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 has nothing next weekend but a monster d12+ Let me know when I'm being fringed on consecutive runs and then we know it's getting serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 has nothing next weekend but a monster d12+ I’ve missed the blues over us. Also, signs of a great pattern are fantasy day blizzards. It’s happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Fv3 has nothing next weekend but a monster d12+ Bob, I hope you are coming over to the force and not the dark side any longer. I will miss when you tormented the frail weenies on the edge of despair. I hope we get realy busy tracking soon. Everything falling into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Bob, I hope you are coming over to the force and not the dark side any longer. I will miss when you tormented the frail weenies on the edge of despair. I hope we get realy busy tracking soon. Everything falling into place. I'm in a better mood now that there's something worth tracking but I won't have any confidence in this winter producing until it produces something. Guidance is hinting that after next weekend it might suck for a few days or a week before a meaningful change really asserts itself. Makes sense. Step downs are typical when the hemispheric pattern is undergoing sig changes. The pac jet wont go away easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 has nothing next weekend but a monster d12+ It’s a day off but EPS has a signal for a coastal a day or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Not a bad look, of note the warm SSTs off the SE coast, maybe can be tapped into for a Miller A in Feb The #2 area is nothing to sneeze out, wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Fv3 has nothing next weekend but a monster d12+ Looks like a traffic jam starting in the Atlantic.... Block it up baby! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 From Don S. I like the research he did on precip, and makes me feel better we will not just have cold but oppurtunities for snowfall as well. Granted he is talking NY City or nearby , but it still gives me more confidence that an active weather pattern continues this Jan to March . From Don S. over at 33andrain: <<< Finally, New York City's precipitation to date has surpassed 0.50" with today's rainfall with cities such as Allentown, Newark, Philadelphia, and Poughkeepsie having even higher precipitation to date. The January-March period could be wetter than normal. Since 1972, there were 7 prior cases to 2018 where New York City picked up 60" or more precipitation (none prior to 1972): 1972, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2007, and 2011. Five (71%) of those cases had above normal precipitation in the following January-March period. Only one saw much below normal precipitation during that period. In short, the turn to cold that appears increasingly likely after mid-month will likely be accompanied by opportunities for snowfall. >>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm in a better mood now that there's something worth tracking but I won't have any confidence in this winter producing until it produces something. Guidance is hinting that after next weekend it might suck for a few days or a week before a meaningful change really asserts itself. Makes sense. Step downs are typical when the hemispheric pattern is undergoing sig changes. The pac jet wont go away easily. January 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Ji wanted me to let you all know that the 18z gfs is a disaster in the long range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ji wanted me to let you all know that the 18z gfs is a disaster in the long range No pattern change at all. Can even complain that the end is in sight. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: No pattern change at all. Can even complain that the end is in sight. Uh oh What if next week is the pattern change then we change again on the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No pattern change at all. Can even complain that the end is in sight. Uh oh but yea i was almost too distraught over the op to notice that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: but yea i was almost too distraught over the op to notice that. Wait that looks good. It does right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Wait that looks good. It does right? Ji just wants the op to spit out big fantasy snows so he can post on fb to his adoring fans. There's a bunch of jokers that see 60 degrees at 370 hours and panic 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wait that looks good. It does right? Yea but I'm worried my 600 hour extrapolation of the srefs look awful. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Let me know when I'm being fringed on consecutive runs and then we know it's getting serious. Its 90% rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Let me know when I'm being fringed on consecutive runs and then we know it's getting serious. Its 90% rain tbh it makes no sense for it to be rain, especially with the 850mb temps being well below freezing in mid-January, and a 975 low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: but yea i was almost too distraught over the op to notice that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Sure does seem the -NAO wants to be a consistent feature on the LR guidance. lines up well with the weeklies, monthlies, and seasonal forecasts for end of Jan and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It would really suck to have an ideal pattern and still be above normal temps..that might be enough to just make us shut the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Serious question...do we ever want to see a huge negative departure on the ensembles over us at LR? That far into the future, wouldn’t that signal very anamolous cold which likely wouldn’t be stormy? I also find the temperature anamoly maps in the LR to not be a good indicator of what to expect....H5 is a better predictor I think but curious what PSU and others think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I'm just glad I'm not on record predicting an epic winter published in a widely distributed paper read by 100s of thousands of local Loudoun residents....whew...sucks to be that guy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Serious question...do we ever want to see a huge negative departure on the ensembles over us at LR? That far into the future, wouldn’t that signal very anamolous cold which likely wouldn’t be stormy? I also find the temperature anamoly maps in the LR to not be a good indicator of what to expect....H5 is a better predictor I think but curious what PSU and others think. I agree with that but that shows a decent positive departure. Not sure we want that either. Need Goldilocks look. Maybe just average to slightly below. Just my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Serious question...do we ever want to see a huge negative departure on the ensembles over us at LR? That far into the future, wouldn’t that signal very anamolous cold which likely wouldn’t be stormy? I also find the temperature anamoly maps in the LR to not be a good indicator of what to expect....H5 is a better predictor I think but curious what PSU and others think. No, we don't want the core of the cold overhead. Best place is in between. I like looking at the mslp panels and seeing hp sprawled to the north. Living on edge is how most of our events work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It would really suck to have an ideal pattern and still be above normal temps..that might be enough to just make us shut the blinds. He used the 318 temps panel to refute my 384 h5. Lol. We're just messing around so... but yea it's likely that after our first foray into chilly air next week we have to endure a 3-4 day period of more puke airmass before the cold loads up enough to press and engulf the eastern US. By day 16 the cold is starting to make progress but around day 13 when he posted its in the middle of the puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Something between 354-384 850 temp anomaly on GEFS looks workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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