Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Icon shows the rain snow line over dc at the end but temps are well below freezing. Sleet or zr would be more likely but as always... getting ahead of myself... Killing bunnies man....what did they ever do to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The Jersey shore got crushed. Sunny skies back here along I-95. ouch. dreamcrusher. ok....back to working on snowmobiles....:). I have a hunch I may get to use them soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Updated from Euro...pretty ideal and continues to look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Gefs and eps increasing the number of big ticket solutions. Gefs seems to favor all or none. Eps is better in that regard with a fairly substantial cluster of minor events in the mix. For our tracking purposes it's pretty simple. Shortwaves phase and amplify or they dont and get squished. Ops wont have the northern stream figured out until Wed at the earliest and that's a stretch. Trends with the southern wave can be watched from longer leads. Like right now for instance. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ops wont have the northern stream figured out until Wed at the earliest and that's a stretch. Trends with the southern wave can be watched from longer leads. Like right now for instance. Lol Why is that? Why are NS waves more difficult to model than SS waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL that looks just like 2-23-89 almost across the board at H5 across the nation If I am remembering that right I was in NJ at the time about 15 miles south of Philly and we were expecting 6-10" of snow and ended up with wind and flurries. Atlantic City got like 18" though. Coastal scraper with a crazy tight back gradient across NJ. 18+ at shore and nothing at Philly. We would not like a repeat. The beaches have done well enough lately. Frankly we are way overdue for a storm where NYC rains and we get snow. Those seemed way more common years ago. Not like every year common but not super rare. But it's been a while. Eta that's partially why their snowfall avg has been going up while ours has been dropping a bit. We used to get some storms every couple years that would track up the coast in a northerly enough track that D.C. And especially west of 95 in the western mid Atlantic was favored and NYC would have rain issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Why is that? Why are NS waves more difficult to model than SS waves? They move MUCH faster than southern stream waves and originate and travel through areas with limited data (satellite data only). When dealing with split flow you'll notice that the vast majority of the time that changes in the northern stream are behind model volatility while the southern stream remains relatively stable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: They move MUCH faster than southern stream waves and originate and travel through areas with limited data (satellite data only). When dealing with split flow you'll notice that the vast majority of the time that changes in the northern stream are behind model volatility while the southern stream remains relatively stable. A good recent example is the euro dropping the lakes shortwave interference idea. Just a few runs ago it was a big problem. Now that problem mysteriously vanished. But it could easily pop right back up or things line up better and models show a phased big hit. Problem is you cant trust the northern stream until you get inside of d4-5. Since we still have 8+ days lead time, dont fall for any traps yet. Every run will show a different evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 @Bob Chill perfect pov on where we're at. The stj has been just about perfect for our purposes all fall/winter. If that remains and we alter the PAC jet such that cold is in the neighborhood it's just a matter of time before one of these (or more) phase up and we get one of those monster solutions to happen imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yeah. Not much to talk about for awhile it seems. Then don’t post. Or you’ll find that your posts won’t be showing up. You don’t seem to want to contribute anything useful. Take it to banter 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A good recent example is the euro dropping the lakes shortwave interference idea. Just a few runs ago it was a big problem. Now that problem mysteriously vanished. But it could easily pop right back up or things line up better and models show a phased big hit. Problem is you cant trust the northern stream until you get inside of d4-5. Since we still have 8+ days lead time, dont fall for any traps yet. Every run will show a different evolution Thanks for the explanation Bob. GEFS also shows a signal around 1/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 More interaction between the streams on the Euro. Better ridge out west too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Snow into Eastern TN/Western NC at 144 on Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Thanks for the explanation Bob. GEFS also shows a signal around 1/20. I'm really liking the way ens are shifting for next weekend but it's a tricky setup followed by another (hopefully brief) hostile period. If we score next weekend it will be lucky bonus snow. My expectations are low but it's something to track. The trend last few days is a stronger hp to our north. Too much of a good thing is very possible. We'll know by midweek if we are in the game for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Snow into Eastern TN/Western NC at 144 on Euro. Bring it home. Need snow into kY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Better look at 500's for the 13th storm. eta: should see this come north somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looks like the heaviest precip stays over the Eastern Shore. Gets kicked east but nice improvement at the 500 level. SV snowmaps has 1-2” for DC...2-4” just east of DC. 4”+ on the eastern shore. 1” line at IAD..sorry Ji. eta: looking at it again, really nice trend at the 500 level. Good runs at 12z overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Better look at 500's for the 13th storm. eta: should see this come north somewhat. Yeah, it's definitely north. Snow into WVa at 150. Into DC at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Looks like the heaviest precip stays over the Eastern Shore. Gets kicked east but nice improvement at the 500 level. SV snowmaps has 1-2” for DC...2-4” just east of the DC. 4” on the eastern shore. Descent stream interaction on this run brings it north. Kicker out west is keeping it progressive though. More spacing would open the door to a bigger event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Bring it hone. Need snow in kY This is your storm that you finally get whacked on! I feel it this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Looks like the heaviest precip stays over the Eastern Shore. Gets kicked east but nice improvement at the 500 level. SV snowmaps has 1-2” for DC...2-4” just east of DC. 4”+ on the eastern shore. Hate that weatherbell lags compared to other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Looks like the heaviest precip stays over the Eastern Shore. Gets kicked east but nice improvement at the 500 level. SV snowmaps has 1-2” for DC...2-4” just east of DC. 4”+ on the eastern shore. Just a bit too much of a squish from the baby pv. That can easily change. Good euro run imo. Very close to the promised land. I'd be happy with anything honestly. Serious withdrawal right now 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looks like the heaviest precip stays over the Eastern Shore. Gets kicked east but nice improvement at the 500 level. SV snowmaps has 1-2” for DC...2-4” just east of DC. 4”+ on the eastern shore. 1” line at IAD..sorry Ji. Baby steps. Euro now shows frozen into our area in <7 days. GEFS and Icon support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is your storm that you finally get whacked on! I feel it this go around. Just want to see some accumulating snow. Even 1 inch. Beggar mode 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Descent stream interaction on this run brings it north. Kicker out west is keeping it progressive though. More spacing would open the door to a bigger event. Yup, I think the things to watch will be the kicker out west and the granddaughter PV (as Bob alluded to above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Euro sounds like good news for now. Plenty of time to root for a more norther trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 H5 vort panel at 138 sure looked like the ns was ready to fully dive in. Odd how there is only interaction when it looked like a phase was imminent....am I looking at it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: H5 vort panel at 138 sure looked like the ns was ready to fully dive in. Odd how there is only interaction when it looked like a phase was imminent....am I looking at it wrong? The only hiccup if compressed flat flow out in front. Couldnt amplify. Jack up heights in front just a little and its a warning event. Column is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: H5 vort panel at 138 sure looked like the ns was ready to fully dive in. Odd how there is only interaction when it looked like a phase was imminent....am I looking at it wrong? Not sure models will get this right day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I like the trend on the GEFS Ive been waiting to see some similarities between gfs/euro/eps as they all have been pretty conflicting past 7-10 days. Finally think the pattern change is a foot. The mean ridge out west is showing some stability and the pac fire hose is finally getting blunted. Might take some time to get the lower level temps to cooperate and recover from the pac onslaught but I think we’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. As bob said, NS is tougher on models at med-long leads. Just keep the southern stream adding fuel to the fire and something will catch... eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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