showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Gfs lookin better then 0z . Better height rises out ahead . Should be decent hit . Looks like we lost thermals this run but the storm is still there so that's what's important What else is new. A model war between the GFS and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Know it is probably getting lost with people following the potential Jan 13th system and the Jan 17/18 window but I think the one we should really be keeping an eye out for is the possible system around the 20/21st. The setup leading into this window has shown much promise since it popped up in the long range and the look continues to improve on both the GEFS and the EPS. If you are looking for a WOOF!!! this has the look and feel. But, model runs in the extended so take it for what it is worth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 We are tracking. Life is good. Snow to ice. Roger that. Thermals are troubling this run so ops normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looking at the end of the long range pattern on the EPS and believe it or not it looks even better. Like the general overall look in the PAC better. Seeing better ridging into Greenland. Stronger PNA and EPO. Better heights over top in Canada. 5 day Mean trough is set up at neutral on the Mississippi compared to a slight positive on the previous run. Seeing a little stronger height builds over the pole. The look at this point would really be hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looking over the pole on the EPS and it looks as if it is flirting with the idea of 3 way bridging between the EPO/PNA ridge, the Greenland ridging, and the ridging extending out of Russia. Would love to see what the analogs would have to say about that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Gfs lookin better then 0z . Better height rises out ahead . Should be decent hit . Edit: Looks like we lost thermals this run but still not a bad hit for many . The storm is still there so that's what's important Seeing a pattern.....those that phase are tucked lows which would yield thermal issues...the guidance that misses the phase are weak sauce. Not sure we want a phase unless we thread the needle with timing and location irt the phasing. I mean...I will take my chances if we want something bigger but at this point I'm pulling for the weak sauce honestly just to get snow for most. A phase could still be a s-r type event however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: 1) The NS runs interference and we have a weak and suppressed system running to our south with minimal impact (inch or two at best) through the DC/Balt corridor. This is/has been the solution I have favored all along and I think is the most likely outcome. 2) The NS stays out of the way giving the southern low some room to amplify and come north somewhat. This scenario probably puts us into a moderate event of 2-4, 3-6 inches type of deal. 3) We see interaction and /or phasing between the two streams and the low strengthens and pulls up the coast. This is the potential SEC/MEC scenario with 6-12+ possible if we see a clean phase. Lesser amounts if we see a partial or dirty phase. Unfortunately for you Big Dog chasers a clean phase is also the least likely at this time. The general setup and timing argue against it. I mostly agree with this. Also think most should be pulling for #1 the way the winter has gone. I'm sure Ji would be fuming but I will gladly take an inch or two of fresh powder to blanket the ground and walk away thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I mostly agree with this. Also think most should be pulling for #1 the way the winter has gone. I'm sure Ji would be fuming but I will gladly take an inch or snow of fresh powder to blanket the ground and walk away thrilled. Or snow to ice to dry slot. Can live with that too. All rain would be sadness at a high level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 @stormtracker there is never an issue or problem with a modeled rain storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Good morning everyone! Should be a fun week(s) of tracking ahead. 6z GFS manages warning level snow in the DMV (this Saturday). Inside 10 days! For real. Purples and pinks on the clown map. Whats going on in this world!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 06z GEFS big precip signal. Also a little south of the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: @stormtracker there is never an issue or problem with a modeled rain storm..... nope. almost always an over performer when its liquid and the thermals are not a factor. This one has potential to be at least some frozen as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: @stormtracker there is never an issue or problem with a modeled rain storm..... Correct. If it shows a rainstorm at D9, everything, down to the location of every droplet will be modeled correctly for that storm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looking at 6z GFS and FV3P0 - The evolution isn't that bad. Have the HP pressing a little more and we probably go bigger front end thump/mix/drizzle. Or have the primary hand off to a coastal right off Hatteras and we could even get in on CCB on the back end. Would probably also stay snow longer that way. Will be interesting to see if 12z runs start come around to this new GFS look. Remember, CMC had nothing at 0z and 0z EURO was a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Correct. If it shows a rainstorm at D9, everything, down to the location of every droplet will be modeled correctly for that storm. I am glad he called you out to let you know about this little know fact. After all, it isn't like someone repeats this earth shattering epitome run after run, day after day, winter after winter. Oh wait.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Enthusiastically agree with the excitement here. For the first time this winter, we notice humungous low pressure crashing from the Pacific into the California coast but crashing slowly so that a nice ridge forms from Idaho south just as the AO drops and we enjoy surges of Canadian air flooding the East. For Jan13 and Jan20, we see classic evolution, yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Know it is probably getting lost with people following the potential Jan 13th system and the Jan 17/18 window but I think the one we should really be keeping an eye out for is the possible system around the 20/21st. The setup leading into this window has shown much promise since it popped up in the long range and the look continues to improve on both the GEFS and the EPS. If you are looking for a WOOF!!! this has the look and feel. But, model runs in the extended so take it for what it is worth. Did someone say January 20th lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the pole on the EPS and it looks as if it is flirting with the idea of 3 way bridging between the EPO/PNA ridge, the Greenland ridging, and the ridging extending out of Russia. Would love to see what the analogs would have to say about that possibility. SNOW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 49 minutes ago, Ji said: @stormtracker there is never an issue or problem with a modeled rain storm..... I've seen you moan that a rainstorm wasn't as wet as modeled...heck I've moaned about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 right on cue opened MSN this morning at work...scrolling headline "Snow Possible this weekend in DC"...that's the equivalent of starting a thread. I think it was a local affiliate WJLA perhaps..I refused to click on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Did someone say January 20th lol Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: right on cue opened MSN this morning at work...scrolling headline "Snow Possible this weekend in DC"...that's the equivalent of starting a thread. I think it was a local affiliate WJLA perhaps..I refused to click on it. that was there last night about the same time DT came out with his "if you were a subscriber, you would have know i have been talking about the possibility of Jan 12/13 storm for over a week now" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 That looks like low pressure on the NC coast to me. Haven't seen an h5 look like this for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Did someone say January 20th lol Chuck says Eastern US warming and nasty pattern ahead though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: right on cue opened MSN this morning at work...scrolling headline "Snow Possible this weekend in DC"...that's the equivalent of starting a thread. I think it was a local affiliate WJLA perhaps..I refused to click on it. Storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Storm cancel? ha. we can do that well enough on our own..we are second to none in cancelling winter anything and everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: that was there last night about the same time DT came out with his "if you were a subscriber, you would have know i have been talking about the possibility of Jan 12/13 storm for over a week now" Hold up....in his 'ALEET' he clearly stated this is a nuisance type deal and nothing big. So I guess that is subjective to how someone defines 'big' and 'nuisance' where he can still claim he nailed it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hold up....in his 'ALEET' he clearly stated this is a nuisance type deal and nothing big. So I guess that is subjective to how someone defines 'big' and 'nuisance' where he can still claim he nailed it? He always finds a way to save face. Has he ever admitted to being flat out wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: That looks like a low on the NC coast to me. Haven't seen an h5 look like this for a while. If you believe the strat progression and retrogression of the pattern that look could even improve further and extend deep in Feb. Looks like the strat event keeps going and the pattern should continue to improve. SOI negative today yet again, Daily contribution to SOI calculation -4.33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Our afd is interesting. At this time, Sat and Sat night appear the best time frame for any precip with snow the most likely p-type given strong upper confluence and sfc high pressure over the Northeast and southern Ontario and Quebec regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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