yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 looks like 3-5 for DCA... i81 corridor/C MD/N MD gets crushed on IWM snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 It's that damn sleet that kills. BUT, I mean..with the way this winter has gone so far, I'd buy that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, yoda said: looks like 3-5 for DCA... i81 corridor/C MD/N MD gets crushed on IWM snow maps Temp issues with that track. mid levels will warm to cause mixing but that happens for about 80% of all good coastals the MA gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, but omg jinx it why don't we let's wait until after the 12z suite at least given we've already started in here? LOL feel free not to start a thread too... just, if the euro comes in hot like the GFS did, expect this thread to become heavily about the weekend vs long term. just my two, very unimportant and cheap, cents. back to lurking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: So when does the FV3 take over again? I mean I know it can still be accurate and have wins but how much stock do we even put into the “old” GFS at this point? It was supposed to replace the GFS in early February, but the shutdown is going to ruin that plan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 CMC looks like a hit for the eastern parts of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 It will change 50 times. But the general look is solid. HP placement better and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's that damn sleet that kills. BUT, I mean..with the way this winter has gone so far, I'd buy that right now. Come on man. Weenie rule #6. GFS has a warm bias. Shave a few degrees off the surface and mids. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I like this position a lot more than some strung out POS or hoping a NS SW saves the day. Definitely weaker with that feature. Stout HP pushing a little more and we get a quicker transfer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: I like this position a lot more than some strung out POS or hoping a NS SW saves the day. Definitely weaker with that feature. Stout HP pushing a little more and we get a quicker transfer. And its not some 1030-1032mb HP.... its in the low 1040s on this GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Fv3 is a better track. Lighter on the qpf but all snow. I'll gladly take either unreliable gfs. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, yoda said: CMC looks like a hit for the eastern parts of the LWX CWA Yep, a bit different evolution with a later phase but big step from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 To my eyes....FV3 stays all or mostly snow at DCA. Quicker to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Some snow with a few inches of sleet would not bother me at all... It would stick around forever and make a nice base for our snowpack to buid up :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 After this panel it phases and bombs the NE. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 CMC is on board now with the general evolution of the storm. Track of the low is further south than the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 okay guys... during model runs, lets cut back on the banter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Come on man. Weenie rule #6. GFS has a warm bias. Shave a few degrees off the surface and mids. Not crazy at all to say this, especially with a stout airmass like that in place. Lord almighty it's good to see that beast up to the north locked in place. IF there is a storm this weekend, we will get SOME frozen out of it regardless with that airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cutting back on the strength of the NS shortwave makes a big difference. there is no way thats going to change over to rain with a 1043 high is it? i guess the surface low could kill the mids but keep it cold at the surface:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is a better track. Lighter on the qpf but all snow. I'll gladly take either unreliable gfs. and its not at day 10. another reason to smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Yea, Fv3 is money. Warning event and all snow. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: To my eyes....FV3 stays all or mostly snow at DCA. Quicker to the coast. Do u have a link friend? Gov site on shutdown apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Do u have a link friend? Gov site on shutdown apparently. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: there is no way thats going to change over to rain with a 1043 high is it? i guess the surface low could kill the mids but keep it cold at the surface:( Sleet or zr probably. We've had a number of these types of events over the years. General rules of HP strength and placement would imply more snow than anything else. Let's worry about QPF and let the 1040HP have it's way during game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ji said: if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...oh what a party we'd have--ken beatrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is a better track. Lighter on the qpf but all snow. I'll gladly take either unreliable gfs. Dr No is licking his chops...this is where he likes to crush weenie optmism that occurs between 11am and 1pm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GFS would imply a 4-8" front side thump south to north across our area then mixing and another 1-2" on the backside. Great run. Everyone should sign up for that. Now we wait for the Euro to break our hearts and give Boston 3 feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Dr No is licking his chops...this is where he likes to crush weenie optmism that occurs between 11am and 1pm My guess is the euro is still a disappointment but makes a clear move towards the GFS twins. 12z has the icon, gfs twins, and CMC all looking the same. Usually means the euro meets halfway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Looks like Mr./Mrs. @Scud is angling for another timeout 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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