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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Looking at overnight and morning modeling, the potential system in the gulf, regardless of development, looks like it could bring a widespread beneficial rain to the area. Outside of a few areas east of the Triangle, this has been an underwhelming tropical rainfall season, obviously, and these systems are the ones we rely on during the dry summer months so if we can get this thing in the region I suspect some areas can make a good dent in recent rainfall deficits

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36 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

12z Ukie is bringing the hammer Sunday for eastern parts of NC/SC.Gulf low right up the coast.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019101612_102_480_220.png

I'm grateful for the rain we got today, but we need a good soaker to fill some of these ponds...

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6z NAM continues to show some nice rains over the SE. The 6z GFS has joined the party and has shifted its precip shield farther west to give many in Ga, SC, and NC good amounts (~1" from Atlanta - Greenville - Charlotte - RDU) . Sharp cutoffs going into S.VA. 

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Looking ahead to Tuesday... RAH

QPF is anemic on the latest model runs and 
the trends have been going in that direction in the last several 
runs. We will carry a chance of showers, but QPF will be limited to 
most likely less than 0.10.

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Halloween is getting closer (within reasonable model range). Looking like the kids will be wearing coats over the costumes. 

6z GFS at ~ Trick or Treating time (next morning many areas below freezing):

 

jjjj.jpg

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5 hours ago, NCsandhills said:

I'm getting married outdoors in Asheville on Nov 4th...how's it looking for me?

:snowing::snowwindow::shiver::sled:

Bank on it.  Snow on the wedding day is abundant good luck!

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Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though

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28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though

What about temps?

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1 hour ago, Jessy89 said:

I don’t expect the GFS to be accurate this winter either


.

Wont stop the yootoobers from using it for clickbait though.

Halloween is looking a bit nipply though and I think the GFS at least has that cold shot right.

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3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Wont stop the yootoobers from using it for clickbait though.

Halloween is looking a bit nipply though and I think the GFS at least has that cold shot right.

“Did I say nipply?”

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRycQWxxV8Zx5D9pKXrpdT

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15 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

I just want our first freeze..  Looks like we are going to be behind schedule in Raleigh.

Our 1st frost came on Nov 20 last year. I am hoping it comes a bit earlier this year.

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13 hours ago, Wow said:

Euro and GFS agreeing on a strong Greenland block for early Nov

Euro @ 240

281hAuz.png

GFS @ 240

bl6nqY9.png

Would be nice but I honestly can't buy it, I think I've become a complete cynic when it comes to cold around here. I think this winter will end up a repeat of last year without the early Dec storm. We've been above average for so long it doesn't seem like there's any pattern that can deliver below normal for more than a random day or two.

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18 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Would be nice but I honestly can't buy it, I think I've become a complete cynic when it comes to cold around here. I think this winter will end up a repeat of last year without the early Dec storm. We've been above average for so long it doesn't seem like there's any pattern that can deliver below normal for more than a random day or two.

I agree with your overall point, but less than two years ago we had a generational 10-day cold spell in NC at least.  We've had three or four equivalent warm spells though.. 

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I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32..  it was crazy.  Couple years ago I think.  The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it!  (and it rarely freezes as it is)

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32..  it was crazy.  Couple years ago I think.  The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it!  (and it rarely freezes as it is)

It was at the tail end of December 2017 and the beginning of January 2018.  RDU set their record for most consecutive hours below 32F:  Just under 10 days.  Some areas of the  Pamlico/Albemarle sounds froze.  Got down to 0 F at my house in Wilson, which is quite an accomplishment.

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I think we may have a chance at our first freeze Monday morning. Given a favorable HP placement, light winds, and low DP this is a VERY favorable setup for maximum radiational cooling. Most models over-do nighttime temps at this range in these setups as well. This wouldn't be much behind our long terms average first freeze, either. Would be interesting to get a freeze before a frost if that came to fruition!

monday12z.png

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Has anyone checked out the forecast discussion for this week? GSP is using some pretty ominous wording for this front on Thursday. Looks like it could get nasty.


.

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1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

Has anyone checked out the forecast discussion for this week? GSP is using some pretty ominous wording for this front on Thursday. Looks like it could get nasty.


.

Yeah, Thursday is looking spooky! But a lot can change in 3-4 days!

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Random but does anyone else think Halloween is a storm magnet holiday? Seems the days surrounding 10/31 almost always feature something interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if plateau counties in my state see some wrap around flurry action. Even if there's phantom in nature...par for the course given the timing.

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