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About *Flash*

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  1. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Update: Greatest this century...
  2. Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Yeah, we officially hit a 50° temp swing @ BNA yesterday. I've been doing some Excel magic going through all the CF6's; honestly, it's going to take a while to go through each one, but I can verify the temp spread is the greatest this decade by a wide margin...
  3. ^^ Agreed. At this time yesterday, I was thinking about making a jog up to Elizabethtown. Now I'm not sure where to go; SE VA would be quite a drive for the amounts in question. Still, I do have permission from the better half to chase the history so I got that going for me.
  4. Second straight day we've seen the low track a more favorable route. Weaker QPF profiles with a weaker/faster/more southerly tracked low could mean slightly better potential for those in middle TN near the KY border/upper plateau. Also, those counties may have a slightly more advantageous ETA than east TN though I caution anyone feeling optimistic we're talking nickles and dimes (i.e. tenths of inches) here. Personally, I'm setting my expectation level to 'surprised' if I see any stickage in White Bluff/Dickson county. If you're a middle TN resident, interpret the trends as an uptick in the potential you'll see frozen precip falling from the sky. Note: OHX put out an excellent morning discussion. Worth the read...
  5. Low track seems better this AM, but trends seem to favor a classic cold air chasing moisture setup. *Yawn* Pretty remarkable we're this close given the climo. WPC maybe a bit too bullish for I-40 north counties. A token inch in April would be awesome, but gut says...
  6. Yeah, that Miller B hybrid trend could transpire. Crazy how often the mystical KY/TN rain/snow line makes a case as a legit phenomenon. Gut says middle TN north of 40 could see some brief mixed/snow shower activity a la 3/20/18, but that's about it. More fun & games it appears for central/east KY. I know we often say it this time of year, but where the heck was this pattern a few months ago? This winter is going down not as a pattern fail, but a timing fail. Somehow coming away with half the snow received during winter 2015-16 makes little to no sense. But that's the power of one perfectly tracked storm. I'm sure I'm not the only one who thought Louisville was pulling from our 1/22/2016 experience with that deformation band a few weeks ago. For those in east TN, I imagine the odds are a bit more in your favor for accumulation. We'll be rootin' for ya in these parts. Best guess though is a trip up 75 or 81 is the safest bet at this point.
  7. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Awfully quiet in here. How 'bout that 'moderate risk'? Anyone in middle TN ready for some microburst action (*sarcasm*)? Honestly, not the biggest fan of microbursts. It's not that I don't appreciate the phenomenon; it's just that I have to answer a ton of questions on what they are (gets old after the 2nd or 3rd attempt). Plus, you can't chase them unless PM hail shafts are your thing.
  8. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    TWC storied up my footage: https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/watch-as-first-time-storm-chaser-spots-likely-tornado-in-alabama (not exactly my first time chasing, but whatev Still, feel a tad moronic for tackling this from the north, but based on other footage I've seen, I most likely would have run into rain curtains instead of the hail core green. Plus, these storm clusters would eventually make an odd voyage to the southeast. At any rate, if you're a Tennessean chasing down in Alabama...don't go about this like I did, especially if your tracked cells are taking the classic SW --> NE route. #lessonlearned Side note: Prior to my pitstop in Athens, I had pulled into the Elkmont Welcome Center off I-65. Boy...if I had stuck around for a little while...that EF-2 narrowly missed the Saturn I rocket: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201803202359-KHUN-NOUS44-PNSHUN
  9. Stat of the Day: So far this month, BNA is -0.2° below normal with mean highs/lows of 59.2° & 38.6°. Compare this to LAST month where we blowtorched our way to a +8.4° month with mean highs/low of 59.7° & 40.6°. Assuming the trend holds, this will be only the tenth time March finishes cooler than February (1890-1892, 1899, 1926, 1930-1932, 1999). The greatest negative correlation? 1932...when February finished 51.5° before plummeting to 44.4° the month after. ~ CF
  10. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Thanks, Jeff! It's rather remarkable how different Alabama's 65° is compared to Tennessee's 65°.
  11. Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

    Intercepted my first tornado yesterday. Apologies for the poor vid quality. Due to a potpourri of post-storm tech issues, I had to download this from FaceBook live just so I could get something up for the masses to see. Later on, I'll post some follow-up thoughts concerning what I learned from the experience. Wasn't nearly as prepared as I thought.
  12. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Scored a few token inches early Monday. The ruler measurement at the end was taken on top of my vehicle where snow first started sticking/had least resistance to melting. One of those weird snows where you had around an inch on the ground, maybe 1.5" on tree branches...and then more on patio furniture, outdoor tables, rooftops, etc. Either way, all the snow was gone by 11 am. Should have done a melting time lapse instead
  13. Rooting for you guys in central Indiana. My wife and I do a Nashville (TN) to Nashville (IN) B&B snowchase if we can thread the needle. Always fun monitoring the weather outside my home state (where we'd be lucky just to crack 6" seasonally). :/
  14. Early February Hyperactivity

    Gotcha. Thanks for the reply. It's been tough in TN this winter with so much UL convergence shredding systems apart. Generally I gotta a 3" in <3 hour rule, but willing to flex a bit if trends flip more favorably.
  15. Early February Hyperactivity

    Looking to snowchase from Nashville, TN but not sure when/where to go. Was thinking central IL Tuesday or Indianapolis Wednesday. Any thoughts/guidance is appreciated.