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*Flash*
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About *Flash*
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Useful Weather Links - Tennessee Valley Style
*Flash* replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong thread, but does anyone have any good resources/links pertaining to future PDO behavior? -
Check out 7:09 am yesterday at my station in White Bluff. That's a 2.62"/hour rainfall rate. Crazy rains coming out of Hurricane Sergio remnants. While I ended up with 4.07" total, somehow BNA (40 miles east of me) only received 1.03". On the bright side, for locations northwest of metro who had missed out on past tropical moisture, they got 'caught up' yesterday.
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Yeah, I like how those BN temps retrograde, beat down the ridge, and open the door for blocking in the D10-14 range. Positive signs heading into November, but we'll see if they hold. Interesting to note how the latter image kinda falls in line with CPC's DJF temp anomaly forecast...
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Ran some #'s this morning. BNA at +13.0° for the month as of 10/12 (+8.4° from the warmest October on record, 1919). Projecting out for the rest of the month, there's a real chance we finish the month somewhere between +3.0°-4.0° going -3.0°-4.0° the rest of the way. Really puts the pattern change in perspective.
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Yeah, I drove into work thinking about this. Fingers crossed Michael is 2018's version of Opal. While I'll have to do some research to see how Opal impacted the pattern, all I know is the months after Opal (i.e. November 1995-March 1996) went a longgg way in getting me hooked on weather.
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It’s a solid run if you like stark color changes and rapid rates of de-leafing. I’ve been in middle Tennessee the past 26 falls and I’m expecting this one to be among the top ‘0 to 60’ we’ve ever seen in that span.
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30's!!! Seriously, this will probably modify into 40's as we draw nearer, but still...big changes are goin' down either way.
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0z GFS at 500 lookin' good. GEFS not far behind. Still hard to get too excited about anything 240 hours out; however, there's a shot hope arrives next weekend. I am fairly strict about my first #PSL. Maybe I'll get lucky and go after church on Sunday, October 14.
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Nice to see the omega ridge broaden and flatten by mid-month. Really anytime you're stuck in a warm pattern thanks to some type of ill-placed cross-polar flow (be it ridging or troughing), you want to see tamer anomalies indicative of more mobile features. I think this take is realistic in the sense it captures the gradualness of change and how our road to seasonal norms starts with cool fronts, not cold fronts. Also, I want to see that southwestern blue disappear. While the W3 look is clearly superior to W1, I'd hate to see a 10/1-6/1954-esque omega ridge yield into some tropically-induced rex block/southwest flow keeping the torch alive. Still think whenever we do turn cool, it's going to turn cool quickly, in part, due to the lack of modification potential by early October standards. Furthermore, you gotta factor in the year's temperature narrative, specifically the sudden transitions between seasons. As we all recall, we went winter to summer in late April so perhaps we'll do the reverse 6 months later in late October. Kinda has a romantic symmetry to it if you ask me. Then again, we're about weather here, poetry be darned. All I know is: these upper 80's are fueling my S.A.D. I'll take any semblance of fall at this point.
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Public Information Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 301 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 ...September 2018 has been unusually wet and stormy... As of today, Nashville has received 6.90 inches of rain so far this month. This makes September 2018 the 7th wettest September on record at Nashville. The wettest September on record was in 1979 with 11.44 inches of rain, and the second wettest was in 2009 with 11.08 inches of rain. Crossville has received a whopping 10.59 inches of rain so far this month. This makes September 2018 the wettest September ever at Crossville. The previous wettest September was in 1989 with 9.00 inches of rain. In addition to the heavy rainfall, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms affected parts of Middle Tennessee over the past week. These storms spawned an EF0 tornado in Cannon County on Monday September 24, and an EF1 tornado in Fentress County on Tuesday September 25. Both of these tornadoes were the first on record to affect each of those counties in the month of September. Historically, September is the least likely month for tornadoes across Middle Tennessee. In fact, prior to the two tornadoes this week, only 9 tornadoes have been known to have touched down during the month of September in Middle Tennessee. ~ Shamburger
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I agree. Great stuff, John. Cool Septembers are hard to come by for BNA. In fact, only 4 Septembers in the last 25 years crack the top 40 coolest. Interestingly, those 4 cases all saw meh to terrible DJF's. 1) September 2011 2) September 1994 3) September 2001 4) September 2003 Pretty sure for most us know how winters 2011-12, 1994-95, 2001-02 turned out. 2003-04 was the epitome of meh for middle Tennessee. To John's point, I concur...one can't make a winter weather forecast based on September/October. As DT reminded us in his latest weather vid, what really matters this time of year is cold air development in Canada and high soil moisture content over our region's cP belt (i.e. midwest/Great Lakes). Believe or not, the current western trough in conjunction with a wetter eastern half may end up being our friend a few months from now.
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Yeah, if you want to go contrarian...you could say the 'fall balk' modeling is attributable to a lack of grasp on Super Typhoon Trami. The PNA, for instance, has no idea what it wants to do. Perhaps the battle will be more contested than one-sided in the weeks ahead. However it shakes out, I can handle rainy days and slightly AN compared to what we had last week. Sure want to believe hope exists in week 3/4, but I think we all know counting on long term verification is like going for it on 4th and 15+. May need help from special teams to get out of this jam...
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I concur. If you like early season skiing in the Rockies and/or Aleutians storms pumping up that +PNA, cheers. For here, I'm more optimistic than I was this time last week. All that early season snow and cold up in Canada has to move at some point. Model blends hint at the first fall front/trough rotating through before month's end. Tomato, Tamato if it's September 28 or October 4...as long as we can kiss the 90's/upper 80's goodbye. Local cool downs rarely feel gradual...and next month looks like it may play the part. Speaking of Euro Ensembles, let's hope Florence doesn't reloop back into the Carolinas next week. I imagine % are low, but still...unsettling if you're a weather weenie in the SE forum.
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Beckham-esque.
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Just catchin' up here. Interesting to see the continued theme of ridge magnitude being underestimated. Curious as to how far west/south trends will go. Lost 105.44-105.64 in week 1 of my fantasy football pro league, a fitting metaphor for my area with respect to the precip shield. Will take bonus cloud cover holding down temps on a busy outdoor weekend. On a separate note, anyone have a good resource where analogs can be accessed based on track?