*Flash*

For posterity...

SPC states the predictability is too low at this point. We shall see what happens. On a separate note, if you would have asked me one month ago March would finish 4-5° above normal with only a handful of statewide reports (3/14/24 was our only semi-active day), I would have cited nonsense. A remarkably quiet month!

Speak of the devil. They did it again. Another eastward shift!

Yeah, I knocked on wood with that post. Slight and marginal risks expanded eastward overnight. I’m not worried though, at least right now. If that slight risk encroaches into western middle, my antennas will elevate.

Bam Wx put out an informative long term forecast yesterday. He suspects the rapid ENSO evolution could result in a stormy April. Things look relatively tame and seasonal for most of our viewing areas until then. Of course, the same can’t be said for areas west and northwest of our state.

DT has been down for the past month since the consensus Feb forecast busted (understandable given his locale). His X account has been an exhibition to his spiral of late. On a separate note, I was reminded of a localized 3” snow event that took place 3/11/17 in western middle TN in the heels of a blowtorch January/February. As much as I want one last Hail Mary pass, the gut feeling is the refs are on the sidelines about to call the game. No more time on the clock for this winter though maybe for 2500’+?

March 2007 was very warm, akin to 2012. A year later in 2008, we had a notable snow event March 7-8. About half a foot in my current locale! One of those winters saved by the bell at the last window of opportunity.

Here’s rootin’ for some wintry mischief in Monterey later this month. Just need one more snow in the air moment and I’ll be good ‘til next winter.

Jet stream and better dynamics to our northwest. Not going to complain.

I brought home a new NOAA weather radio yesterday much to the joy of my now 6-year-old daughter, Evy, who has a legit storm phobia. Also picked up James Spann's Benny and Chipper book. After the 12/9/23 event*, we're going into the next season fully prepared, lol. *I kid you not: She was so impacted by the tornadoes that day, she told me just last week the date the last tornado in our county hit (I.e. 12/9/23). Apparently, she was listening in the backseat when I was livestreaming damage reports the following day.

A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage.

If the Euro Weeklies are going warm, I'm going to expect a cold snap. I believe in Murphy's capacity to thwart and troll spring breaks in our region.

I can appreciate this reference. Rivera's career ERA (2.21) will soon be the average snow total for most of our respective locales. P.S. It's a shame he never won a Cy Young. He deserved it in 2005.

Season snowfall to date. I imagine our part of the world won't see much adjustment on the 2023-24 seasonal snowfall maps. Easily could have been worse when you consider locations to our immediate northwest and, of course, the southern mid-Atlantic down through the Carolinas. The blues in Minnesota are also telling.

I concur with both you guys. I tend to think if a cold shot verifies, it will be too late for the valleys. Kinda in that awkward in-between phase where severe talk makes more sense for the majority but winter is still on the board for elevations partially immune to climo. While it would be great to have one more system to track, I agree with you Carver and others who have hinted at this winter clinching a passing grade depending on here you live. Had anyone told me on 12/1/23 my backyard would see 9" of snow for the winter (above average by 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 standards), I would have taken that and run. Quantity-wise, I prefer winters that produce a trackable winter storm per month on average, granted beggars can't be choosers. Sure seems to me that March is trending more towards lion than lamb. As long as the pattern doesn't become too dry and benign, I'll take it.