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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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4 hours ago, griteater said:

94/42 now at ATL at 5pm

93/56 at CLT

No end in sight in the long range with the summer warmth. Yuck 

You have to go back to 2006 to find a September that was below normal in Charlotte.

Back in the '80s and '90s I used to always do my fall lawn renovation during the second week of September. That changed in the mid 2000s.

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16 hours ago, griteater said:

94/42 now at ATL at 5pm

93/56 at CLT

No end in sight in the long range with the summer warmth. Yuck 

Yeah, this is old already. A week ago GSP had no 90s in it's forecast, now it is all 90s through end of next week! This September picking up where last Sept left off. Last year we had to wait till Oct 12 to see any cooldown, I REALLY hope that doesn't happen again, but no signs of it right now. SO FRUSTRATING!!!:maphot::thumbsdown:

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11 hours ago, Eric said:

You have to go back to 2006 to find a September that was below normal in Charlotte.

Back in the '80s and '90s I used to always do my fall lawn renovation during the second week of September. That changed in the mid 2000s.

Ha, yeah Eric I was just talking to my neighbor yesterday about how October is the new September.  It's been rough everywhere since 2007

 

MpCjGtJ.png

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37 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah, this is old already. A week ago GSP had no 90s in it's forecast, now it is all 90s through end of next week! This September picking up where last Sept left off. Last year we had to wait till Oct 12 to see any cooldown, I REALLY hope that doesn't happen again, but no signs of it right now. SO FRUSTRATING!!!:maphot::thumbsdown:

It really does suck, but as bad as it is, I hate the super long days of full sun and heat that you get in June/July even worse.  At least we are closer to relief now  

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ATL forecast of 98 Monday! 

Looks like most models showing small cool down, but still above average for next weekend. GFS shows bigger front FINALLY pushing through on the 21st, and bringing a better feel. PLEASE, FOR ALL THAT IS DECENT!

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

ATL forecast of 98 Monday! 

Looks like most models showing small cool down, but still above average for next weekend. GFS shows bigger front FINALLY pushing through on the 21st, and bringing a better feel. PLEASE, FOR ALL THAT IS DECENT!

We also need a tropical system to break the horrible drought! I think James Shetley would agree!

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

ATL forecast of 98 Monday! 

Looks like most models showing small cool down, but still above average for next weekend. GFS shows bigger front FINALLY pushing through on the 21st, and bringing a better feel. PLEASE, FOR ALL THAT IS DECENT!

Don't hold your breath for that (2 weeks out).

 

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There are benefits.....it is much easier to kill my lawn for reseeding when it is bone dry.  And I was able to open up a mile or so of atv trails yesterday on the tractor without sliding around in mud.  Beyond that, this is miserable!  I just hate to rely on a tropical system to break the pattern because we all know how bad the inland flooding can be across the hill country.

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But we just had a tropical system. But instead of pulling down cooler air it it's getting hotter.  :axe:I'm not personally in a drought and have enjoyed the drier weather, BUT, I need a cool down!!!

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

But we just had a tropical system. But instead of pulling down cooler air it it's getting hotter.  :axe:I'm not personally in a drought and have enjoyed the drier weather, BUT, I need a cool down!!!

Speaking of a tropical system.  Appears that little tropical wave west of Africa has potential. 

Both long range  GFS and Euro show it entering the Northern Caribbean.  Much like Dorian. 

GFS showing landfall in FL as a Hurricane. 

:guitar: Tropics might not be finished yet.

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If we lock in the SER again and sweat through October I think at least 70% of this board will need some sort of mental therapy.  The long range models are just not good at predicting pattern changes.....ever.  #trustbroken

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14 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

If we lock in the SER again and sweat through October I think at least 70% of this board will need some sort of mental therapy.  The long range models are just not good at predicting pattern changes.....ever.  #trustbroken

Hopefully the 6Z GEFS is not good in the LR (2m temp anomaly for days 12-16):

 

aaaa.jpg

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Once again it will end up being a crap fall foliage season because of late heatwaves.

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

What a suck fest this month is turning out to be.  I would just settle for 80's!  Good grief....as someone stated above, this pattern is bad for upcoming leaf season too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

Yeah this stinks out loud. That SER has basically been a fixture going on a couple of years now. The last period of any respectable below normal temps in the East was Jan 2018, and that was really just the first two weeks of Jan. That's the longest stretch of below normal we've had in many years. Other than that we get a front to cool us down to normal or a little below for a couple days and its right back up. Meanwhile,  the upper midwest and northern Rockies have been consistently below normal for a couple years. I know the planet doesn't care, but it would be nice if us in the east could get a reprieve for at least a few months. 

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14 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Hopefully the 6Z GEFS is not good in the LR (2m temp anomaly for days 12-16):

 

aaaa.jpg

The only saving grace is that +1 degree C is equivalent to 59 L and 80 H by the end of this timeframe in Charlotte.... :axe:

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7 hours ago, Tarheel17 said:

The only saving grace is that +1 degree C is equivalent to 59 L and 80 H by the end of this timeframe in Charlotte.... :axe:

Yeah, we're already getting temps in 80s/60s while we're in a bad pattern. In July this would be at least 90s/70s.

Last year we started to see some foggy nights in mid/late September. We kept the higher dew point, and with the longer nights allowed the air to saturate. Looks like we might see more foggy nights this year...   

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6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, we're already getting temps in 80s/60s while we're in a bad pattern. In July this would be at least 90s/70s.

Last year we started to see some foggy nights in mid/late September. We kept the higher dew point, and with the longer nights allowed the air to saturate. Looks like we might see more foggy nights this year...   

And that may be the only moisture your lawn sees as well unless the tropics come through for us.  I didnt get a drop from Dorian in the Triad.

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17 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not one drop of rain the whole of September, through today! And the last week or so of August, so deadly dry around here! Plants are dying everywhere! Temps in the 92-96 range everyday also isn’t helping! Normal high is 84

Day 16 without a drop if rain here. Local corn crops are drying up. 

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GFS continues to show nice cool down for much of the area by 25th through the end of the run, we're talking  70s/50s for s good chunk of the board, with 60s/40s higher elevation. Would feel fantastic but let's see if it holds. Been showing for several days now. BTW check out the heat urban islands on that model, you can pick out every city with noticeably warmer night temps, especially ATL. 

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Well the GFS lost the idea yesterday but thankfully shows a cool down still coming after the 25th, with a reenforcement at the end of the month. Still way out there, but the 25 is 11 days out. If we can get it inside a week I'll feel a lot better about maybe getting that cooldown we all need. 

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well the GFS lost the idea yesterday but thankfully shows a cool down still coming after the 25th, with a reenforcement at the end of the month. Still way out there, but the 25 is 11 days out. If we can get it inside a week I'll feel a lot better about maybe getting that cooldown we all need. 

Look to the upper midwest at 6-7 days out and see if its really there.  Then all we need to worry about is breaking down the ridge.  I fear we are already seeing some familiar battle lines drawn.

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On 9/7/2019 at 10:14 AM, griteater said:

Ha, yeah Eric I was just talking to my neighbor yesterday about how October is the new September.  It's been rough everywhere since 2007

It's getting tiresome having to constantly read about the "Upper Ridge" in the NWS AFDs.  It seems like it's now a year-round occurrence.

Friday morning I was checking out the webcam at the Jackson Hole Golf & Tennis Club and I noticed frost on the putting green and driving range and a dusting of snow on the peaks of the Tetons.  Would love to have a house there to escape the Southeast heat.

601779494_JacksonHoleGolfTennis091319.thumb.jpg.3a4fed5b9b5ecdd3861abcf17c00c781.jpg

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1 hour ago, Eric said:

It's getting tiresome having to constantly read about the "Upper Ridge" in the NWS AFDs.  It seems like it's now a year-round occurrence

 

Yeah, something about the dominant large scale pattern has led to this for an extended period of time, going on years. Others on here can better speak to it, but it's obvious and there's no sign of change. I keep holding out hope it would change or flip to a western ridge pattern for awhile but this may indeed be the new normal.

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