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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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What is stunning to me about the charts above is that we ended up with 2018 being a near record Sept for heat....while we were having record annual rainfall amounts during a fall when we couldnt find a dry weekend anywhere and begging for it to stop raining.  That to me is even more impressive than this year.

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On 9/17/2019 at 7:40 PM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

GFS continues to show second cool off after 25th, but now it's very brief and builds the heat right back in through the beginning of Oct. Big time trough out west with some bona fide cold coming but ridge in the East just won't go away for more than about 48 hours. Anyone know what the driving forces have been for the trough west/ ridge east that has been almost the exclusive pattern the past couple years? 

Welp, after another day of runs the post 25th cool down is now completely gone and the heat continues to build through the end of the run. The 18z GFS wants to push a pretty big front across country the first week of Oct, though verbatim, I'm not sure it would make it past the mtns. Enjoy the next few days fellas! 

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7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Welp, after another day of runs the post 25th cool down is now completely gone and the heat continues to build through the end of the run. The 18z GFS wants to push a pretty big front across country the first week of Oct, though verbatim, I'm not sure it would make it past the mtns. Enjoy the next few days fellas! 

6z GFS is more positive. It now shows a couple of cool downs and then warm ups. Better than all warm; which some earlier runs showed. **Precip is still not good across the SE.  

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

6z GFS is more positive. It now shows a couple of cool downs and then warm ups. Better than all warm; which some earlier runs showed. **Precip is still not good across the SE.  

Starting to feel like fall of 2016.  Hope we don't start seeing the wildfires like we had that year.  Remember the all the smokey days?

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25 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Starting to feel like fall of 2016.  Hope we don't start seeing the wildfires like we had that year.  Remember the all the smokey days?

I sure do. We need rain. I dare say we need a tropical system. Otherwise we might have to wait for the November storms to start.  

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Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

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2 hours ago, CADEffect said:

What sucks most is that there is no where in the United States that has normal temps through December. per CPC

The CPC can’t even get their 7 day and 14 day temp and precip maps right! I wouldn’t put much stock or worry in their 90 day outlooks! The Eastcoast above normal precip , is already verifying wrong!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

The CPC can’t even get their 7 day and 14 day temp and precip maps right! I wouldn’t put much stock or worry in their 90 day outlooks! The Eastcoast above normal precip , is already verifying wrong!

Have you or others started looking at seasonal models yet? CSFv2 ect...

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I've always hated these maps. The passing eye would think 'scorcher' but in reality, a 30% probability is just as likely not to verify.

What do they use for their data to back this claim? balloons?

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GRRRRRR!!!!   After tomorrow, about all we could hope for over the next 10 days is a back door cold front or CAD.

For Friday September 27 - Thursday October 03: Analysis of today's mean 00Z 500-hPa height field during Week-2 depicts much better agreement between the ECMWF and GEFS models compared to earlier this week. Both models suggest an amplification of the upper-level pattern, with anomalous positive heights centered over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, an expansion of anomalous negative heights over the western CONUS, and stronger anomalous positive heights over the central and eastern CONUS. Over parts of the Northeast and eastern Maritime Canada, some disagreement is evident in the model guidance, with the GEFS showing a stronger negative height field extending into the central Atlantic.

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I needed a break in the action and fortunately had to travel to Aspen CO this weekend.  The weather is stunning!!  60s and 30s, beautiful days.  And we had snow flurries from a passing cloud yesterday at 12,000 feet going over Independence Pass.  I'll do whatever dance, ritual or sacrifice to the memory of John Denver that I need to do to bring this weather home with me to the Southeast.  

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On 9/19/2019 at 1:50 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I've always hated these maps. The passing eye would think 'scorcher' but in reality, a 30% probability is just as likely not to verify.

Even better is the experimental 12.5 month forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec 2020.  The good cheer never ends.

 

image.png.57b9eb8aebd0b46d488ae836160e33b3.png

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Why is it we're getting the biggest solar wind flareups in September lately?

2017- 760 km/s

2018- 758 km/s

2019-872 km/s

Could be coincidence,,could be some sort of new cycle.

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We might "see" some precipitation Monday night/Tuesday morning!!! :whistle:

 Latest run 
of the NAM is showing enough air mass moderation for some virga 
possible across the northern zones. 

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10 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Why is it we're getting the biggest solar wind flareups in September lately?

2017- 760 km/s

2018- 758 km/s

2019-872 km/s

Could be coincidence,,could be some sort of new cycle.

This is likely the culprit - https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/14/equinox-cracks-in-earths-magnetic-field/

"The northern autumnal equinox is <only a week away>. That means one thing: Cracks are opening in Earth’s magnetic field. Researchers have long known that during weeks around equinoxes fissures form in Earth’s magnetosphere. Solar wind can pour through the gaps to fuel bright displays of Northern Lights."

"This is called the the “Russell-McPherron effect,” named after the researchers who first explained it. The cracks are opened by the solar wind itself. South-pointing magnetic fields inside the solar wind oppose Earth’s north-pointing magnetic field. North and South partially cancel one another, opening a crack. This cancellation can happen at any time of year, but it happens with greatest effect around the equinoxes. Indeed, a 75-year study shows that September is one of the most geomagnetically active months of the year–a direct result of “equinox cracks.”

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

The vegetation is about as dry as it gets around here at the moment.  Here's the latest soil moisture map.  No relief in sight over the next 15 days with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation expected.

Oe8xKEm.gif

It's just unbelievable. September has always been a dry month, but this is just getting ridiculous. If we don't get a pattern change or a tropical system around here we are going to be talking about forest fires before too long. At some point, something's gotta give! 

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The averages at GSP for October 5th are 76/54. TWC shows 78/56 for that day. Pretty sobering to think we're looking at a possible significant Fall front with a major cooldown and we'd still be above average. I wonder if below average (for more than a random day or two) will ever happen again? :wacko:

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Talk on the other board about the Euro showing no cooldown and the GFS only showing CAD type cooldown as opposed to FROPA. If it doesn't cool down soon I think I'm literally going to curl up in a ball and cry. 

 

Edit: just checked out the GFS, looks like the 12z is better at bringing the cool air down on the 5th still , then reenforcing the cooler air thereeafter, whereas the 6z has a small cooldown but then less cool after. Still looks like it wil be cooler thatn now either way, but not sure if "Fall" is on the way yet or not. 

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Bring on the drought of 2019... Hopefully the change to cooler includes an active coastal pattern for a soaking rain. Rain associated with frontal passages is not going to cut it. Need soaking-type rains now.

Drought.png

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1 hour ago, NRVwxfan. said:

Per James Spann. Euro ensembles are on board with a big cooldown. 

I dont see how it cannot cool down.  Shorter days quickly limiting heating, sun angle getting lower to reduce efficiency of heating, and there's going to be 4 feet of snow on the ground along the Canadian border! 

Look at the bright side, if this keeps up we may be on the firing line for some epic winter storm tracks!

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I didn’t expect to hit 96, with only around 12 hours of sun! I guess when the ground has turned hard as concrete, cracked and parched, there’s no soil moisture whatsoever left to retard heating! I guess September record heat is better than October snow!? But I’m sure we can still pull it off! :(

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