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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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21 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah, something about the dominant large scale pattern has led to this for an extended period of time, going on years. Others on here can better speak to it, but it's obvious and there's no sign of change. I keep holding out hope it would change or flip to a western ridge pattern for awhile but this may indeed be the new normal.

It can’t last through the next 6 months, that’s not possible,  like having a + NAO for the 3 months of winter, correct??

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We do get a break this week.

from RAH:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... Much cooler and drier Wednesday through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend over the weekend. High pressure is expected to extend into NC/SC from the north Wednesday through Friday. It will be much cooler and drier with very noticeable drops in both temperature and humidity expected. Sunny days and clear nights are forecast Wed-Fri, lows in the 50s. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The normally cool spots over the Piedmont will have some mid-upper 40s. The ridge aloft will build back into the region from the west over the weekend. This will allow the surface high to remain nearly stationary over our region Sat-Sun. A gradual warming trend will begin Saturday with highs in the 80s, after lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs Sunday should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with dry weather to continue. &&

**Those cooler spots are places like Sanford and Roxboro. 

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I will take this.....and even after a warm up there looks to be a chance at another cooler period later this month....its not crazy to see 90's in Oct here unfortunately but overall this pattern is not bad for Sept ( at least in NC )

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
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21 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

Being from NY, i am enjoying the extended summer. I always felt (living up there) that summers were way too short. 

With that said, I am not enjoying this dry spell. 20th day in a row with no rain IMBY

Fall is normally beautiful here. If we're lucky we can get 4-6 weeks of open window weather.  

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42 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

Being from NY, i am enjoying the extended summer. I always felt (living up there) that summers were way too short. 

With that said, I am not enjoying this dry spell. 20th day in a row with no rain IMBY

I'd love to think summers were too short!

It really is amazing that going north just 500 miles can be the difference between endless winters and endless summers. Crazy to think such a short distance makes that much difference. 

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Rainfall doesn't look to improve anytime soon. From the afternoon AFD from Raleigh...

Other than a stray shower pre-dawn Wednesday 
across the western zones, precipitation chances will remain near 
zero through the period with high pressure jockeying into place 
overhead. The next chance of appreciable rainfall holds off until 
early to middle of next week thanks to the approach of a cold front 
from the northwest. 

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Rainfall percent of mean over the past month

7GEEVAs.png

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

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GFS continues to show second cool off after 25th, but now it's very brief and builds the heat right back in through the beginning of Oct. Big time trough out west with some bona fide cold coming but ridge in the East just won't go away for more than about 48 hours. Anyone know what the driving forces have been for the trough west/ ridge east that has been almost the exclusive pattern the past couple years? 

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56 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

GFS continues to show second cool off after 25th, but now it's very brief and builds the heat right back in through the beginning of Oct. Big time trough out west with some bona fide cold coming but ridge in the East just won't go away for more than about 48 hours. Anyone know what the driving forces have been for the trough west/ ridge east that has been almost the exclusive pattern the past couple years? 

Really sounds like our last 2 winters 

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The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes). 

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29 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes). 

Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct.  We are not going to get off the hook easy this year.  

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15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct.  We are not going to get off the hook easy this year.  

I hear this every year and every year we blow it out of proportion (at least in my eyes). The SER was killer this time last year and yet for KAVL we're only averaging 1 degree above our mean for all of September last year. By the end of this week, I'll guarantee that it will be at or below our mean for September 2018. I get that each backyard is different but I also know every September in the South continues the dog days of summer to the point that we become weather weary. I agree with FallsLake above, eventually (sooner than later) it will give and this will all be an afterthought.

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^^Yeah, I've seen it hot (90s) into early October (..like last year). I've also seen it get cool (no AC needed again) after the first week of September. The last two Septembers have been warm; and last October was warm into middle of the month, but then the dam broke and fall finally arrived:

 

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1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I hear this every year and every year we blow it out of proportion (at least in my eyes). The SER was killer this time last year and yet for KAVL we're only averaging 1 degree above our mean for all of September last year. By the end of this week, I'll guarantee that it will be at or below our mean for September 2018. I get that each backyard is different but I also know every September in the South continues the dog days of summer to the point that we become weather weary. I agree with FallsLake above, eventually (sooner than later) it will give and this will all be an afterthought.

I understand what you're saying, but using last September,  one of the warmest on record for many, is not a great benchmark. Plus averaging this September compared to last year doesn't tell the whole story. The highs this month have been way higher then the highs for September last year. The average highs in AVL this September have been nearly 5 degrees higher than last, resulting in 8 days it has reached 90 or higher through the first 17 days, compared to a monthly high of just 87 last year. The only reason the averages are closer to last year is bc the lows have been closer to normal, but most people are reacting to the highs. And this is just AVL.  Yes, it will eventually cool off, but most of us hate bringing summer into October. Even if we go below the mean for last year, that will be little comfort for most. Regardless,  looking forward to these next couple of days!

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I understand what you're saying, but using last September,  one of the warmest on record for many, is not a great benchmark. Plus averaging this September compared to last year doesn't tell the whole story. The highs this month have been way higher then the highs for September last year. The average highs in AVL this September have been nearly 5 degrees higher than last, resulting in 8 days it has reached 90 or higher through the first 17 days, compared to a monthly high of just 87 last year. The only reason the averages are closer to last year is bc the lows have been closer to normal, but most people are reacting to the highs. And this is just AVL.  Yes, it will eventually cool off, but most of us hate bringing summer into October. Even if we go below the mean for last year, that will be little comfort for most. Regardless,  looking forward to these next couple of days!

We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before. 

 

 

avg.png

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1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before. 

 

 

avg.png

Gotcha, yeah, don't remember 1980.

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Some numbers for the period of Sep 1 - Sep 17

Asheville: Avg Mean Temperature is 3rd hottest in 151 year record.  Avg High Temperature is #1 hottest

Greenville-Spartanburg: 2nd hottest in 136 year record

Charlotte: 3rd hottest in 141 year record

 

N7RpVf1.png

 

7EjSwCc.png

 

FD1MUCT.png

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25 minutes ago, griteater said:

Forecast highs here for Friday have gone up from upper 70’s to low 80’s. Sounds about right for this summer 

Wait till the Arctic blasts and highs in the 30s, turn into highs in the low 50s in January, that’s my favorite! :(

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Some numbers for the period of Sep 1 - Sep 17

Asheville: Avg Mean Temperature is 3rd hottest in 151 year record.  Avg High Temperature is #1 hottest

Greenville-Spartanburg: 2nd hottest in 136 year record

Charlotte: 3rd hottest in 141 year record

 

N7RpVf1.png

 

7EjSwCc.png

 

FD1MUCT.png

Good stuff. It's interesting to see so many sequential years for AVL. Especially 1925, '26' 27. 

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5 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before.

I well remember the July 1980 heatwave.  It was miserable staying in a room with no air conditioning at the Green Park Inn in Blowing Rock with temperatures in the low 90s.  The only respite from the heat was an excursion to the top of Grandfather Mountain where even there the temperature was around 80°.

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57 minutes ago, Eric said:

I well remember the July 1980 heatwave.  It was miserable staying in a room with no air conditioning at the Green Park Inn in Blowing Rock with temperatures in the low 90s.  The only respite from the heat was an excursion to the top of Grandfather Mountain where even there the temperature was around 80°.

Yeah that was a warm one.  I remember some brutal JV football practices in August.  Winter of 80/81 was one of my least favorite growing up in 70’s/80’s.  From 76/77 thru 87/88 we had good winters with some good storms except one: 80/81.  We had 1” of snow in January, a minor ice storm and sleet storm on April 1.  That winter was a bad anomaly back then.  Today that would be epic lol 

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3 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Good stuff. It's interesting to see so many sequential years for AVL. Especially 1925, '26' 27. 

Amazing how warm 1925 was; must have been awful in those pre-AC days looking forward to Fall relief and getting a face full of high summer.

Also, amazing how soupy last year was at Asheville.

 

 

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