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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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So for many of us, Friday is the transition day. The front will come through early in the day, The farther north you are in the SE, the earlier you'll see the cool down (..or dew point drop). Specifically for RDU, we'll see dew points drop from the mid 60s early in the day to mid 50s by 6pm. High temps will still reach the mid 80s but drop into the upper 70s with the lower dew points by 6pm (..it'll be a nice evening for a walk).   

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Forecast has changed a little for here. They took next week's chance of showers out. Another week of dryness looms.

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Is it too early to start looking for a fantasy -NAO?  From the CPC 8 - 14 day forecast.

One feature being closely monitored is the potential for ridge development over the North Atlantic south of Greenland (shown by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles). Should this feature develop, this would teleconnect well with increased troughing across much of the Eastern CONUS.

Nothing could go wrong here could it?

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11 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Is it too early to start looking for a fantasy -NAO?  From the CPC 8 - 14 day forecast.

One feature being closely monitored is the potential for ridge development over the North Atlantic south of Greenland (shown by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles). Should this feature develop, this would teleconnect well with increased troughing across much of the Eastern CONUS.

Nothing could go wrong here could it?

I personally think this would be a great time (moving towards winter) for a trough pattern to set up across the east. I've always been in the camp of (wanting a) east coast trough in early/mid October, ridging from late October into mid November, and then a trough pattern in late November / early December. My thinking is the pattern that occurs around Thanksgiving can be a signal for the winter. This goes along with our past (half) joking about not wanting a Halloween storm or SC November snow.       

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Seeing some highs in the upper 20's this week in the northern Rockies and northern plains for the first time this fall.  Hopefully the we see a flip in the troughing and the death of the SER soon.  

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Like a broken record, SE ridging keeps the storm track above us with coastal development too far offshore to get significant rain into the lee of the Apps. This has the markings of a significant drought for much of the Southeast. The areas of severe drought have continued to expand. With no significant change in sight, I would look for that to continue.

DROUGHT2019.png

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Still no drought relief on the 12z GFS but man is that a stout trough digging in at the end of the run! Would be our first chance at frost in some areas if taken verbatim...

Temps.png

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9 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Like a broken record, SE ridging keeps the storm track above us with coastal development too far offshore to get significant rain into the lee of the Apps. This has the markings of a significant drought for much of the Southeast. The areas of severe drought have continued to expand. With no significant change in sight, I would look for that to continue.

 

18z looks different

oaW7FiZ.png

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4 hours ago, gman said:

Looks promising.image.gif.03f2b94287f31021a47ee61b22344be3.gif

 

Personally I would love this outcome. But man that is a skinny strip of precip. One shift south or north and I'm crying the blues while others are celebrating. **wish it was more widespread...

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Euro at day 5/6 looks better today but we need a couple more ticks NW to get the mountains/foothills a little more.Let's hope this chance works out this time.
 
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019101100_135_480_220.thumb.png.f6151ac0ab85d9bdc2618ffe15dbaa9b.png
Perfect! We're already anticipating the NW shift.

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20 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Perfect! We're already anticipating the NW shift. emoji16.png

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Haha if this was a winter storm this map would be right where you'd want it the triad! :lol:

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25 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS WHAT ARE YOU ON FOR HALLOWEEN?!?!7f4768d7d6466749e00a0eb8ba7b38b7.jpge64d917be3e3559f2f49268639be73ff.jpg

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That wouldn't be surprising for the higher elevations, but for Kentucky that would be a little early.

The nice thing is we're in a totally different world from two weeks back.  

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That wouldn't be surprising for the higher elevations, but for Kentucky that would be a little early.
The nice thing is we're in a totally different world from two weeks back.  
Here are the dewpoints...a83605e775b82fd4b9d341a6e42dcb91.jpg

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RAH used the frost word. They're highlighting "normally colder locations"; which I'm not.  But maybe places in central/eastern NC like Sanford, Roxboro, and even Rocky Mount could see something.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... As of 224 PM Tuesday... Quiet, cooler weather in store for central NC Thursday through Saturday, and even dry weather most of Sunday. The main weather story during this time will be temperatures, with a cold Canadian high settling over the Carolinas by Friday morning. While Thursday morning will see lows in the lower 40s, it will be even chillier Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s possible, and even a few patches of frost possible in the normally colder locations. Otherwise, look for gradually moderating trend over the weekend as the high moves off to our east. The next noteworthy wx system will be a plume of tropical moisture progged to lift NE out of the GOM and cross the Carolinas early Monday morning through the day Monday. That will provide the first of two rain opportunities early next week. The second rain opportunity will be associated with a cold front progged to cross the area on Tuesday.

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As someone else, said "what a difference a couple of weeks makes."  After this week's cool shot, looks some more cooler weather next week and around Halloween plus some rain opportunities too.  Love seeing the "Below Average Temp. Forecast" for the SE.  I'll take it after that brutal September!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

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Last couple HRRR runs looking better for  the GSP -CLT-GSO-RDU corrider  putting down .75'' -1.00'' in 8 to 18 hours.Sharp cutoff on both sides with only a few tenths so we'll see how it goes.

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