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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Well its cold today, but mostly rain, if its going to be cold I want it to snow, no snow come on warm temps.

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Thanks CR, but most of the blame I'm reading is attributed to the EPO and MJO.  Sounding like they are core and without them we cannot count on other indices to pull us through. 

The MJO is forecast to get into the cold phases, but the models seem to keep a SE ridge.  Either they are wrong, or the MJO has become irrelevant.

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On 2/9/2019 at 7:45 AM, mwp1023 said:

Pear and Cherry trees are starting to bloom and the Maple trees are budding.  Looks like an early spring

If the climatic trend continues the peach crop will eventually be impacted by not enough chill hours to produce fruit. Some southern areas have had issues with this in the last few years.

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4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The MJO is forecast to get into the cold phases, but the models seem to keep a SE ridge.  Either they are wrong, or the MJO has become irrelevant.

I'm sure it will be irrelevant in the cold phases. That's the way this winter has been. After the first half of December the pattern has been horrendous and I wouldn't expect that to change at this point.

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Since we have nothing else to talk about, thought I'd mentioned the Canadian for next week. Maybe it'll sniff out this wedge!

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png

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FV3 continues it’s med range cold wedge bias. It has a similar precip setup next Tues, but the HP is much weaker at onset (1038 vs 1026-ish). Regular ol’ GFS has something there too, more of a slider look but with cold air trying to ooze over the mts rather than a CAD signature.

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FV3 toyed with it and another for the 21-22 at 6z.  So we have hints from the Euro, Fv3, GFS and the Canadian that something could be up around the 20/21 timeframe.

 We shall see.

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55 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

FV3 toyed with it and another for the 21-22 at 6z.  So we have hints from the Euro, Fv3, GFS and the Canadian that something could be up around the 20/21 timeframe.

 We shall see.

12z FV3 Continues the theme...

 

 

sn10_acc.us_ma-1.png

zr_acc.us_ma.png

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Looks to be two systems around 2/19-2/22. The first one could *potentially* establish lower heights, allow HP to build over NE and leave a frontal boundary in the gulf. System 2 develops along the boundary then we have miller A vs. B. What could wrong?

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17 minutes ago, WSchew said:

Looks to be two systems around 2/19-2/22. The first one could *potentially* establish lower heights, allow HP to build over NE and leave a frontal boundary in the gulf. System 2 develops along the boundary then we have miller A vs. B. What could wrong?

Yep, more ice would fall with the second system. Lots could go wrong with this setup, but I'm glad to see the potential.  We're getting to the end of the season and need to see something materialize very soon.    

This is at hour 240 (with ice still occurring):

 

aaaa.jpg

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s a great look for NC/SC Piedmont! 

This far out, it is a good look. The problem is...it is the 8-10 day conundrum, which we cannot get past. Tomorrow, it will be gone again. GRRR...

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10 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

This far out, it is a good look. The problem is...it is the 8-10 day conundrum, which we cannot get past. Tomorrow, it will be gone again. GRRR...

Well at least it's not just the FV3 on board this time, there's actually some support from the globals.  Something watch, but yea wouldn't surprise me at all to see it go poof! 

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3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

 

snku_acc.conus.png

I feel like we've seen a ton of these maps this year and, well...we know what happens. Even verbatim, this would do nothing for I-85; this is all west of apps/ north of I-40 stuff. 

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I'm fine with the map fizzling out if all it ends up is showing a massive amount of ice here which would be devastating. No one needs that.

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1 hour ago, Snow haven said:

ya'll are just gonna be disappointed again! I'm not looking at anything unless its 2-3 days out :huh:

Problem is we're running out of time. This is the end game. Maybe have three weeks left to get a decent storm. Time to throw in the chips....

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7 minutes ago, airborneheel said:

Good God. Can you imagine 37 inches in Alabama?

Not a snowball’s chance in hell. Wish I could add more. SER will win out. No way the cold push even makes it to Alabama imo 

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1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Clown Map :facepalm::drunk:

gfs_asnow_seus_38.png

It amuses me that even with biblical snow in Alabama, it still shows a harsh Wake County gradient.  Cold Rain would approve.

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On 2/7/2019 at 5:40 PM, BK Rambler said:

Maybe because there was such a consensus for a cold and stormy winter in the South and East from so many that we respect and we got teased by the cold November and the early December big dog in NC.  A lot of people scoff at the Old Farmers Almanac but they've done better than most for this season - no disrespect to the bustees - it's definitely an art more than a science still.

 

old-farmers-almanac-winter-2019-twsnow-forecast-1000x678-min.jpg

 

Yeah all the "certainty" and general bullish calls is certainly apart of why. I'm a realist and know what to actually expect...which in general is worst case scenario  but one would think  given all the bullish calls, it wouldn't have been this bad.

4 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I feel like we've seen a ton of these maps this year and, well...we know what happens. Even verbatim, this would do nothing for I-85; this is all west of apps/ north of I-40 stuff. 

Was wondering if it was just me  but  as I said this the other day,  i don't think i've ever seen so many fictional cad/winter events in the long range than i have this year.....yet none of them have actually materialized which is quite remarkable. That has helped in adding to my frustration of this year too. It's nothing new to see fantasy storms never materialize but damn....You would think that at least ONE of the 100 that have been shown the past two months would actually verify. 

1 hour ago, WSchew said:

Someone please drop some ensemble maps in lieu of the clowns above.

Not even worth it, zero support on the 18z gefs..at least in terms of temps.  There was actually more on the 12z run but still not a lot. 

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