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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can regenerate precip on a stalled system with spokes of vorticity going around the ULL...the precip just tends to be more localized as already mentioned. We saw this in march 2001 in spots in NH that got around 40 inches. 

The other way is to basically have completely separate waves along a stalled frontal boundary and in that case, the precip shields would remain much more robust...but then you are almost talking about more than one storm even if the snow is nearly continuous. 

Just north of my new location...I think Epping, NH was official jack.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can regenerate precip on a stalled system with spokes of vorticity going around the ULL...the precip just tends to be more localized as already mentioned. We saw this in march 2001 in spots in NH that got around 40 inches. 

The other way is to basically have completely separate waves along a stalled frontal boundary and in that case, the precip shields would remain much more robust...but then you are almost talking about more than one storm even if the snow is nearly continuous. 

That's what I was thinking in my head too, but you do run into the separate systems if you can get the baroclinic zone to rebound. Hard to do that without a significant pause in the precip.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's what I was thinking in my head too, but you do run into the separate systems if you can get the baroclinic zone to rebound. Hard to do that without a significant pause in the precip.

Another way is an inverted trough. Rays favorite. But if you can get one to occur in the waning parts of a legit storm, it can add a lot. It's how PVD to ORH did so well in the 2/14/62 storm and I'm pretty sure at some point late feb '69 storm had one or two. 

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1882 ?  ...

Yeah, agree with Scott ... barring 'getting lucky' between now and then with one of these flat wave deal ...looks like the large scale tries to get more interesting nearing the first of the year.

I rather like the PNA attempting to rise smartly through there...though as far as the GEFs nightly indices, that's pretty new ...also, talking nearing the end of week two so biding time.

As far as the SSW... still prevalent in the modeling but keep in mind, two important distinctions need to be made of that:  

is it down-welling ...

two weeks to twenty days for the average -AO correlation..

also as Will hinted ( I think it was..) we still also have to determine where the cold conveyors decide to align.  I think of that as like a weeble wobble ... if the mid latitudes are in such a phase, it may weeble instead of wobble in our favor on this side of the hemisphere.  However, even if it weeb's Europe-Eurasia first... as 2007 demoed when that epid -AO upended the warmer than normal January, the waves realigned and eventually established sloppy seconds over here and we got some corrective activity going.  Lots and lots of moving parts with that.

 

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43 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Slamming the telegraph tapper in rage. :lol:

Funny...how would he know Worcester beat him so handidly? A telegram arrives in the mail some 10 days later...aunt Hilda laments the death of the crops in waist high drifts...scooter rips the telegram in two pieces and kicks a rooster lol

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7 hours ago, cut said:

Wasn't the forecast for like double that?

yes, I lived in Bristol Ct at the time and picked up a quick 8 inches...right on the northern extent of the better snow......forecast up til that morning was 15-20, something didn't phase together I guess and a 24 hr event turned into a 6 hr one

 

still a solid hit and it snowed briefly 3/hr

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, there aren't many ways to really get that done. Stall the system and remain in the narrow moisture flux is definitely one. 

But historical tales of widespread 4 ft monster blizzards are most likely exaggerations of our typical blockbusters. The extreme totals happen on a much more localized scale. March 1888 and February 1969 are likely the upper bounds of what a nor'easter can produce on a regional scale before petering out.

And that's about the only similarity.  1888 dumped all its snow in a far shorter time than 1969, had far more wind, and gave some folks near-zero cold as well - can't think of another New England event that approaches that trifecta - maybe the 1978 OV blizzard could compete.  '69 was Boston's "Hundred hour storm" and had temps not all that far below freezing (unless one was on the Rockpile.)  If given a choice between the two, I'd say "Surprise me!"

From what I've read, 1717 was something like 4 storms, 2 moderate and 2 big, in less than 2 weeks.

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5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

We should have expected this. We got spoliled last month. There was no way to go wire to wire. We'll all survive

 


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

 

It's very disappointing for the ski resorts, not everyone can take off or go up a weekend this month, was planning on next week but it's looking :(

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