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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

I would just say that it's always a plus to see it on the cold side because if any model is going to be warm in the mid levels it's the HRRR and NAM

Hrrr is usually the crusher of my dreams. Nice to have it wintry for once. Who knows at this point though.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at my grid forecast, they're giving me 7-13". I'll still call this a win with 5" with a little sleet and freezing rain. That initial snow is going to be everything. As others have stated once you get snow and if it's heavy, it many times overcomes slightly above freezing mid level temps to stay all snow.  

I was genuinely surprised to see 7 - 13 for us as well.  Consistency between Blacksburg and RAH is unusual.  We are at the point where RNK, AKQ, and RAH meet.  AKQ has 3- 5.

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1 hour ago, msuwx said:

Well, been pouring through all available data for hours now, and it all depends on the temperatures 5-9k feet aloft for much of the region tonight into Sunday morning.

NAM really warms temps in those layers later tonight....some other models do not. 

The NAM often does well in this situation, but I'm more hesitant than normal this time. Makes a massive difference in ground accumulations, especially around CLT-RDU corridor. 

 

I wonder if the intense precip rates   could offset that warming somewhat or delay it? 

Speaking of those intense rates, most of the models are now  showing enough heavy precip/cooling for a several window of very heavy snow or sleet across ne ga...maybe as far south as athens, before going back to sleet/freezing rain (mainly north of 85 until after 09z) overnight tonight as the warm nose aloft moves in. (just for reference it's all snow/subfreezing at 06z but warms to  plus 3c at 750mb on the fv3 near cornelia at 09z). There does appear to be some dynamical cooling at play here with very intense precip rates and cooling occuring at the same time. ...in fact the 06z run  it keeps it as sleet for areas like gainesville to hartwell for the duration of the storm after 03z.  Would be quite the accumulation of it if that happens. 

 i sure envy the upstate/western nc. The rates are going to be insane. 

HRRRSE_prec_radar_024.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, packfan98 said:

@griteater have you had a chance to look at the 6z euro?  I’m curious if there were any changes, especially with the transition lines. Thanks!

For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there.

Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.   

91AzmtB.gif

Hqd8tey.gif

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I wonder if the intense precip rates   could offset that warming somewhat or delay it? 
Speaking of those intense rates, most of the models are now  showing enough heavy precip/cooling for a several window of very heavy snow or sleet across ne ga...maybe as far south as athens, before going back to sleet/freezing rain (mainly north of 85 until after 09z) overnight tonight as the warm nose aloft moves in. (just for reference it's all snow/subfreezing at 06z but warms to  plus 3c at 750mb on the fv3 near cornelia at 09z). There does appear to be some dynamical cooling at play here with very intense precip rates and cooling occuring at the same time. ...in fact the 06z run  it keeps it as sleet for areas like gainesville to hartwell for the duration of the storm after 03z.  Would be quite the accumulation of it if that happens. 
 i sure envy the upstate/western nc. The rates are going to be insane. 
HRRRSE_prec_radar_024.png&key=8260904eca61b8d3806fce858541d2a9fc6e8e99c36bc3d2944c29e6faceb961
 
 

GSP’s discussion page doesn’t give much hope for snow south of 85 and they are not sure if frozen gets to advisory criteria. Your post gives me hope. Thanks for the informative posts for your neck of the words. That would bode well for me in S of 85 in SC.


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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there.

Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.   

91AzmtB.gif

Hqd8tey.gif

Thanks grit, to me that looks improved...keeps 850s around clt through most of the storm. Nws still has me over a foot of snow total. Hopefully the colder models win out here.

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there.

Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.   

91AzmtB.gif

Hqd8tey.gif

CMC for the win? Looks just like it. LP wise

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Hi all, I am more of a lurker here (for a decade or so lol).  I generally keep quiet because my expertise in a far different field and I just enjoy reading.  I did have a noob question, that is both for general knowledge purposes and also with an eye for my personal situation.  As a native New Englander who now lives about ten miles from RDU airport, the only things that really bother me in NC about weather are tornadoes and ice storms.   I have read a good bit about ice storms, but am unsure the extent to which the icing in this storm will have impacts.  From a layman's perspective, I understand snow, sleet, and freezing rain in general.  That being said, I have read estimates from model runs ranging from .10 to .70 inches of icing.  As I understand it, it is when the icing hits .25 the problems start and by .50 there are pretty widespread power outages around here.  Assuming this is correct, why has there been so little said about the icing potential of this storm in the Triangle?  Is there something with the expected mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain in this that would minimize that risk for trees, powerlines etc.  The only thing in 13 years in NC that has caused significant time without power here for us is ice storms.  It is something I never appreciated as a New Englander before moving south.  Thanks in advance for any replies and enjoy the snow :)

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The 0z Euro has heaviest snow in Greensboro from 6am to 2pm with snowfall rates in the 1.5-2" per hour range at peak, if we can stay snow until the heaviest banding comes through, I will be more than content.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018120800_41_480_216.thumb.png.8bb43445b9b07c50ea404aad533ab892.png

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2 minutes ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

10-16" is my computer generated forecast in Mooresville, seem legit, or too high? 

 

(it actually shows 9-15" for concord also) 

Sleet line stops at Statesville usually. 4-7" would be a good call. 

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16 minutes ago, griteater said:

For some reason, I don't see the 06z and 18z runs on weathermodels now...not sure what's going on there.

Here's the 06z Euro run on Vista with the 850 low, then the second map is the sfc temps. It's north of an ideal track for northern upstate into CLT but it tries to bring wet snow/sleet in that area with heavy dynamics as it rolls thru.   

91AzmtB.gif

Hqd8tey.gif

Grit, do you have this animation with 850 temps?

Thanks,

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Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

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6 minutes ago, ander420 said:

Hi all, I am more of a lurker here (for a decade or so lol).  I generally keep quiet because my expertise in a far different field and I just enjoy reading.  I did have a noob question, that is both for general knowledge purposes and also with an eye for my personal situation.  As a native New Englander who now lives about ten miles from RDU airport, the only things that really bother me in NC about weather are tornadoes and ice storms.   I have read a good bit about ice storms, but am unsure the extent to which the icing in this storm will have impacts.  From a layman's perspective, I understand snow, sleet, and freezing rain in general.  That being said, I have read estimates from model runs ranging from .10 to .70 inches of icing.  As I understand it, it is when the icing hits .25 the problems start and by .50 there are pretty widespread power outages around here.  Assuming this is correct, why has there been so little said about the icing potential of this storm in the Triangle?  Is there something with the expected mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain in this that would minimize that risk for trees, powerlines etc.  The only thing in 13 years in NC that has caused significant time without power here for us is ice storms.  It is something I never appreciated as a New Englander before moving south.  Thanks in advance for any replies and enjoy the snow :)

I'm no expert by any means and we do have a few here.   Although models were showing it yesterday the NWS has only released a real threat notification early this morning as more of the shorter range models began to show a decent hit of zr.   That said I doubt we see more than .20 accrual in the RDU as indicated so don't get too wound up about numbers like .70  Also, we will not have 2m (ground level) temps below freezing for that long and even then we are talking 31 degrees or so.  All said I suspect there will be some power outages in the area.  Hopefully for not long duration.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

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8 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

What are you looking at? The soundings isn’t really under 32 the entire storm across the Upstate. 

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2 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea HRRR definitely impressive.  Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back.  Keeps the line much further south.  Big model battle going on. 

You don't even flip back on Sunday afternoon/evening?

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Just now, mstr4j said:

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

Our cold air flip to snow/sleet is totally dependent on when the lowlevel NE jet gets cranking from the pressure gradient tonight. The models have it quickly going from nothing to 40/50knots. The hi-res models are now showing it cranking earlier.. flipping the upstate to sleet by midnight.

Just checked the RAP... it is lock step with the Hrrr in flipping the upstate over to sleet around midnight, and dropping surface temps to below freezing shortly after. 

Here's an image at midnight from the rap.

RAPSE_prec_ptype_017.png

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3 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

What are you looking at? The soundings isn’t really under 32 the entire storm across the Upstate. 

image.png.339f6d178bbc6a6d6b480431401023d5.png

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7 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea HRRR definitely impressive.  Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back.  Keeps the line much further south.  Big model battle going on. 

Northern end looks like mainly snow running through the hourly soundings

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3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Nope.  Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm. 

6772FD75-0DA7-4372-8E8B-9555C50C969F.png

Thanks Gun.  RDU looks to be hanging on to sleet at that time so better than frz rain

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7 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Nope.  Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm. 

6772FD75-0DA7-4372-8E8B-9555C50C969F.png

snow sounding

AerQdCa.png

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