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stormtracker

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

that weather.us site shows widespread 4"+ from north of richmond throughout much of the region.  general qpf of 1-2" and more towards the shore.  significant increase from 0z especially across the northern tier where upwards of 8"+ is showing now.  i don't know how it calculates the snow totals so that may be high end, but needless to say, a nice run.

Are you looking at the snow depth maps?  I've found that the Euro snow depth maps on weather.us tend to be overdone, especially in events with marginal temps.  You're probably better off using Kuchera ratios.

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I have a feeling they use 10:1.

yea i took the totals with a grain of salt.  the general qpf amounts are certainly more expansive than earlier runs.

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1 minute ago, cae said:

Are you looking at the snow depth maps?  I've found that the Euro snow depth maps on weather.us tend to be overdone, especially in events with marginal temps.  You're probably better off using Kuchera ratios.

kuchera ratios for the euro aren't available on weather.us i don't think

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

yea i took the totals with a grain of salt.  the general qpf amounts are certainly more expansive than earlier runs.

The Kuchera ratio map was posted on page 30 by supernovasky and nj2va towards the bottom of the page

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

The Kuchera ratio map was posted last page

Actually has the same snowfall for DC as the snow depth map. Thanks though, I'd missed that.

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29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Feel better now? Lol Would love to have the level-headed PSU back...the nailbiter one was strange, lol

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

As in January 1996?  I would take ⅓ of that.  That was a fun storm. 

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The best part of the Euro going boom...it’s NOT 10 days away!! Man I’m stoked. The OBS thread gonna be wild. 

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

The best part of the Euro going boom...it’s NOT 10 days away!! Man I’m stoked. The OBS thread gonna be wild. 

First threat all year that actually trended in a POSITIVE direction inside of 48 hours, lol

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

 

2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

As in January 1996?  I would take ⅓ of that.  That was a fun storm. 

Hey, in March, the equivalent may be 1/3 of it (although even half of it isn't impossible in March...but perhaps that's just my snow greed talking, lol)

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

P.S. Ah, I gotcha. Hey it happens...personal issues AND snow tracking ate a bad combination (especially for complicated minds like ours, lol). I pray it works out, whatever you were dealing with :)

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Hey, in March, the equivalent may be 1/3 of it (although even half of it isn't impossible in March...but perhaps that's just my snow greed talking, lol)

Considering some us had well over 2 feet in 96 we are talking like 8-12 inches. That would be a HECS for March in my book. 

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Interested to see NWS' take on this run.  So far, they remain very unimpressed.  My zone forecast has gone down again, now down to just 1-2" accumulation through tomorrow night.

Yeah, there's conservative and then there's conservative.  They may well turn out to be right, but they may also be very, very wrong.

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I think the last Euro Run hoists the watch criteria on the next update. It brings in the accumulations with a 12 hour period in locations closer in tonthe beltway—I.e western Loudoun on back. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was some other stuff going on personally that had me a real mess the last week. Stuff way more important to me then snow but I'm sure it bled over.  That's why I cut way back on posts the last day of two. I realized I was full tilt and a mess. Sorry about that. But it's ok now...both the personal thing and the weather! 

Btw the progression here is very similar to 96.  Not exact it all comes across further north initially.  But where the h5 and slp ends up is close.  Of course ground truth late march isn't going to look like January even if it's a repeat which I'm not saying just noticing the similarities.  

 

I'd like to see the winds get cranking like Jan 96.  It was a blast in the overnight Sunday, Mon. morning around these parts.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

I think the last Euro Run hoists the watch criteria on the next update. It brings in the accumulations with a 12 hour period in locations closer in tonthe beltway—I.e western Loudoun on back. 

Watches unlikely before 12z tomorrow.

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Does this still have some potential for folks to hit double digit totals? Assuming it depends on banding of course and where it sets up (MoCo/HoCo anyone). :lol:

I guess my question is can this juice up anymore on future runs or we maxed out at this point? 

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If the Euro verifies IMBY (which I think is a long shot), then I may actually reach climo. Never thought that would happen.

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Pitt upgraded their watch to a warning for the mountains

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
319 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

MDZ001-WVZ512>514-200330-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.180320T2100Z-180321T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0005.180320T0900Z-180322T0000Z/
Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD,
Grantsville, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons,
Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley
319 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected overnight into Tuesday
  morning then a break before heavy wet snow Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 12 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 14 inches. Ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch are expected by 1pm Tuesday afterward all
  snow is forecast.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Eastern
  Preston, Western Tucker and Eastern Tucker Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
  impossible, including during the morning commute on Wednesday.
  Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
  Power outages and down trees are possible from the wet snow as
  well.

 

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Does this still have some potential for folks to hit double digit totals? Assuming it depends on banding of course and where it sets up (MoCo/HoCo anyone). :lol:

I guess my question is can this juice up anymore on future runs or we maxed out at this point? 

I don’t think there’s going to be a wholesale increase in precip over the average ~1.5” we’re seeing in all the guidance. But there are always bands in a CCB like what’s depicted on the euro. Throw in the time of year, mixing scenarios tomorrow, plus elevation and it’s a recipe for a big range of totals across the region. But yes, I think areas near the PA line could see double digits.

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