CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, DiehardFF said: What do they show? I work for AMR New Haven and of course I work friday night and saturday day. GF works for new haven fire. Check it out under mesoscale models. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: I definitely agree regarding the ceiling All I can really say for now...kind of perplexed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I apologize in advance for stealing all your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: DT has all rain ORH lol Nah. Looks like maybe an inch or 2 of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. It would be the crowning achievement in the cities history if it ever did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So i get 4"? not 24"? k, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: All I can really say for now...kind of perplexed. Quick shutoff after midnight kills the high ceiling. If we ripped from 21z to like 12z Saturday like some models had a day or two ago, I could see justifying a 6-12'' forecast east of ORH. But if it's just 6-8 hours of slushy snow, even if it's heavy, the ceiling is probably 5-6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Nah. Looks like maybe an inch or 2 of slop. He’s terrible . His maps typically are always wrong over New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 How all NAO's are not the same: https://phys.org/news/2018-03-deadly-blizzards-lash-europe-air.html?utm_source=menu&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=item-menu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The mesoscale models that Scott referred to are really bullish for the hills. ORH pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: How all NAO's are not the same: https://phys.org/news/2018-03-deadly-blizzards-lash-europe-air.html?utm_source=menu&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=item-menu Yea I was going to post this earlier. The dearth is cold air is bc it’s all pooled in a diff hemisphere...And then the Pacific flow takes care of any chance of building some of our own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea I was going to post this earlier. The dearth is cold air is bc it’s all pooled in a diff hemisphere...And then the Pacific flow takes care of any chance of building some of our own... Just bad luck...Not sure there is any way to predict that nuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: The mesoscale models that Scott referred to are really bullish for the hills. ORH pummeled. Probably still horse $hit here. Notice a theme amongst guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably still horse $hit here. Notice a theme amongst guidance? Even our German friend shafts C CT/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Even our German friend shafts C CT/MA. I mean, talk about thermal biases all day, but when push comes to shove, you would like to see at least one stray determinitic run of any guidance slip, fall and land on a relatively snow solution for eastern areas...it makes me want to tell mother nature to take that block and shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 We spent a lot of time tracking this. I’m generally in a wind hole so unless it snows it’s a bs event to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 You can only explain away suck for so long...I mean, I'm glad the storm materialized....but whoof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like 00z. Not good. I'm not expecting a single flake and this puts me at 6+.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, talk about thermal biases all day, but when push comes to shove, you would like to see at least one stray determinitic run of any guidance slip, fall and land on a relatively snow solution for eastern areas...it makes me want to tell mother nature to take that block and shove it. Yeah that's one thing that's standing out. We all get that the snow maps are crap in marginal situations but you'd think once in a while one of them would go crazy that isn't named NAM. Its amazing the set up and it just so happens to come on the heels of a +4F to +8F month when there's no cold air anywhere close. It's not like fresh Arctic air of teens is lurking just north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, rnaude241 said: I'm not expecting a single flake and this puts me at 6+.... lol My bar is set for 3-5". Seems reasonable given what I am seeing today. High end would be 10", low end would be 0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can only explain away suck for so long...I mean, I'm glad the storm materialized....but whoof Dude... you have been thinking big storm since November, you are getting a big storm, a couple of degrees difference and you would have a new career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: The mesoscale models that Scott referred to are really bullish for the hills. ORH pummeled. 800'-1000'+ in N ORH county could get buried .. prob like a 25% scenario, but if those areas are able to stay mostly snow and the low lvl warmth is overdone look out IMO for areas nw of 495 with some elevation it all comes down to the magnitude of the low lvl warm air that gets entrained into the circulation ..In the upcoming 18z / 0z runs, I would be watching the magnitude / depth of this warm layer closely .. personally I think it continues to tick a little cooler but I have my doubts that it will be enough to cause an earlier transition period to snow. I mean as it is, a lot of the meso models have elevated areas N of ORH as snow before flipping to rain after ~12z tmrw morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It seems like we should have a g2g on top of Wachusett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Dude... you have been thinking big storm since November, you are getting a big storm, a couple of degrees difference and you would have a new career. I wish I could determine on which side of the globe the cold would take up residence following PV disruption. Weak spot for me, and I won't pull any punches...I messed that up, and it will probably be the difference btwn a blizzard or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's one thing that's standing out. We all get that the snow maps are crap in marginal situations but you'd think once in a while one of them would go crazy that isn't named NAM. Its amazing the set up and it just so happens to come on the heels of a +4F to +8F month when there's no cold air anywhere close. It's not like fresh Arctic air of teens is lurking just north of the border. I don't know for sure, put one thing to keep in mind is that most algorithms will not accumulate any snow above a certain temp. This may be a situation where Kuchera actually works a bit, because the formula for a 35 +SN scenario would still spit out 6:1 ratios. But if the GFS has 40, that formula will finally spit out a 0 snow ratio. That's the upper bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish I could determine on which side of the globe the cold would take up residence following PV disruption. Weak spot for me, and I won't pulls any punches...I messed that up, and it will probably be the difference btwn a blizzard or not. That’s the thing. If the strat splits and the bulk of the pv ends up in Europe we’re doing a 2011-12. Impossible to ever know months ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Heading west to catskills from ASH Any weenies wanna go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading west to catskills from ASH Any weenies wanna go I know Diane would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just looking at stuff quickly: Look at Euro hour 30... you think that cluster of lows arcing around the benchmark should consolidate just east of the Cape. Then at hour 36 it abruptly jumps > 150 miles to southeast of the benchmark. Without that abrupt jump southeast, we'd have a nuke blizzard. I wish I could dismiss it, but the 0z Euro and most guidance today does the same jump. Why is it making that jump? I think it's what I posted early this morning/last night: the bulk of vorticity is southeast of our ULL... vs. 4/97 when the bulk of vorticity circled north and even northwest of our ULL. Is there a chance this depiction could evolve? I think so, and the hi-res models (3k NAM, HRDPS, even 6z-12z RGEM shift) hint that we could get a closer consolidation. But this is getting close. Could every model (Euro, GFS, CMC in particular) continue to be blind to the thermals and dynamic cooling? Sure, but would be more confident if at least 1 model (in addition to NAM) somehow overcame the thermal issues with a big snow hit in eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading west to catskills from ASH Any weenies wanna go I'd be there in a heartbeat lived nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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