CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Must have less forcing over everywhere but se mass s ri after say 20-21z? More like after 00z. But that was better than 00z, so you have that. Also, that is assuming the QPF field is right. H7-H5 fronto tends to be a bit north of what the QPF says, so keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The WRF ARW2 and NMM are rather scary for the coast. Yikes. In regards to QPF and snow fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Heh... it's awesome how there's like the crowd physics that goes on at the same time as the physics in the model(s)... They don't always process the same outcome - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, DiehardFF said: In regards to QPF and snow fall? Well more like wind and CF. For once, the snow is sort of second place to me. However, they smoke the ORH hills, which makes sense to me instead of that bizarre euro map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: yesterday was my day to sht up the thread, i guess today is yours? lol. People from Worcester Eastward will most likely cry at DT (WX Risk) latest snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well more like wind and CF. For once, the snow is sort of second place to me. However, they smoke the ORH hills, which makes sense to me instead of that bizarre euro map. The Euro looks like it torches 925 for ORH until there isn't much qpf left for there. Not saying I believe it, but I think that is what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: The Euro looks like it torches 925 for ORH until there isn't much qpf left for there. Not saying I believe it, but I think that is what it is doing. Yeah at one point it's cooler at 925 on the Cape compared to ORH due to that. But that is only if the model is correct with the forcing. If intensity and placement is off, so will the thermals. Plus, it's talking 0.5C vs -1C. That is not much and small nuances will easily change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks like 00z. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is my snowfall map. I don't think I've ever been so scared in my life making a map I am really leaning towards the dynamic cooling side of things happening and happening quickly. The degree of upward vertical motion is through the roofs; as seen from bufkit profiles so flipping to snow we would see rates 3-5'' per hour and maybe some thunder. such a tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Harv nailed it per euro..several inches ORH hills...lame east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That’s two runs in a row that euro jacks se mass. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Harv nailed it....several inches ORH hills...lame east. Instead of the Beast from the East, we can call this the Least in the East**except for big wind. big wind will be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Instead of the Beast from the East, we can call this the Least in the East**except for big wind. big wind will be big. I think we can toss the 97, 92 idea east....just a matter of whether we can steal several inches near the end. Very disappointing event imho as far as snow goes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just getting in to look at models for the first time. The GFS would lay down several inches of snow in E MA. Sounded worse than it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Harv nailed it per euro..several inches ORH hills...lame east. Well, I'm East and it's not lame. Northeast its lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Well, I'm East and it's not lame. Northeast its lame. You can have 5" of slop... lame nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wouldn’t be selling the mesos. Euro has struggled mightily . No one can feel confident making a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can have 5" of slop... lame nuisance. 6-8" but who's counting? On top of 2-3" of rain and 40-50 mph winds. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 My take on the Euro (...seeing as everyone clearly wants to know...) is that it's heavy rain ...then, light wet snow.. .then... mist .. everywhere... OH, and giant gray-green terrifying abyssal walls of N. Atlantic death sending off seismic waves as they rumble up and over causeways and shore roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 6-8" but who's counting? On top of 2-3" of rain and 40-50 mph winds. Sign me up. I was only speaking to the snowfall aspect. 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 6-8" but who's counting? On top of 2-3" of rain and 40-50 mph winds. Sign me up. 6-8" is south of you, but who's caring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Just getting in to look at models for the first time. The GFS would lay down several inches of snow in E MA. Sounded worse than it was. The NAM is pretty sweet too? So is 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. Yeah, things don't look nearly as bad as they sounded on the phone. Still pretty up in the air on snowfall totals. And even the evolution of this storm. People heavily weigh euro though, and that wasn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. Fall River/ New Bedford = Snow capital of Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. DT has all rain ORH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. Yea, I said the same thing at 00z....something off there, but I think the ceiling for snow in the east has lowered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I said the same thing at 00z....something off there, but I think the ceiling for snow in the east has lowered. I definitely agree regarding the ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well more like wind and CF. For once, the snow is sort of second place to me. However, they smoke the ORH hills, which makes sense to me instead of that bizarre euro map. What do they show? I work for AMR New Haven and of course I work friday night and saturday day. GF works for new haven fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty sure fall river isn't going to quintuple the ORH snow total. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This reminds me of that marginal, nasty forecast last April 1 that I blew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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