#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The reality is that the distribution curve is shifted to sit on our snowfall forecast. So if you picture a bell curve, or something similar, there is a tail that is well below zero. But since you can't get negative snowfall (unless someone steals it), it comes out as 0. Omfg, I'm dying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Codfishsnowman would delete his account I like the Fall River jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Codfishsnowman would delete his account Springfield and NE Jersey, also pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Once you get out of death valley and come up in elevation in a bit, this has the markings of a very memorable storm. Hope folks out here have their gennies on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Once you get out of death valley and come up in elevation in a bit, this has the markings of a very memorable storm. Hope folks out here have their gennies on standby. We no Genny. Just manning up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'd hit this for a forecast if I just had to rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I looked at that too. Some consensus snow crashes SE after 21z. Also, looks pretty juicy right at 00z when that ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd hit this for a forecast if I just had to rip and read. What up with the new "GFS"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Kinda still looks like $hit east.. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kinda still looks like $hit east.. ugh What does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On the 12z RGEM, 20z is the time for the changeover at my house (850 temps plummet). The accu. precip before that is in between 1.25 to 1.5 in. When precip stops, I have 3 to 3.5 inches liquid equivalent. I still think 1-2 inches of LE equivalent of paste is possible for the coastal plain after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Codfishsnowman would delete his account Only a deuce for the Hipster on that as well. Seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: What does Snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Based on the new data-we have to be careful...slight trends south and a bit colder......If this trend continues today with new data, this will mean a quicker changeover to snow in the northeast and to points east and may mean boosting totals a bit. Far from etched in stone...but this is the way it looks like right now. Big Time Heavy Wet Snowfall all areas west of the Hudson Valley/NY area to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Also, subtle changes in wind direction from ENE to more NE at 18z could bolster a faster changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: What up with the new "GFS"? No run since 2/26... Or at least nothing I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Snow potential. Oh well I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: Oh well I'll take my chances Tough final call....may have to dangle my weenie into the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kinda still looks like $hit east.. ugh Yeah nail-biter of a forecast... I don't think any model at the moment verbatim depicts warning level snowfall Bos-metrowest, but there are 2 huge caveats: 1) thermal profiles are at least partially underestimating dynamic cooling, and this is an extremely good scenario for that 2) potential to bomb out closer and longer stall, which is clearly still in flux within 24 hours of go-time That high ceiling low floor again. Areas along southcoast bordering RI went from maybe 1-2" to > foot in 6z vs. 12 HRPDS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 WPC thinks the NAM is too cold in the BL, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 TWC is rip and reading clown maps as their official snowfall forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Codfishsnowman would delete his account lolol so used to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: TWC is rip and reading clown maps as their official snowfall forecast They sent Seidel to Montauk. Not a bad spot to be in for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 WPC thinks the NAM is too cold in the BL, fwiwDid they give reasoning or just a known bias?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro gonna bring us all back to reality as we come off the NAM high lol....at least out West of the River anyway. The Euro is gonna be a disappoitment for most if I had to guess...just my gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Also, subtle changes in wind direction from ENE to more NE at 18z could bolster a faster changeover. For cp , that maybe when things flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM rips gusts to 60mph inland. Gonna be wild with the snow flying and plastering to everything tomorrow afternoon/night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Why would it be too cold? It makes sense to me. What's the alternate?GFS? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ya The euro Litchfield libations hacked the thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM rips gusts to 60mph inland. Gonna be wild with the snow flying and plastering to everything tomorrow afternoon/night Hmm, 78 PSM? 55 EEN, we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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