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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How all NAO's are not the same:  

https://phys.org/news/2018-03-deadly-blizzards-lash-europe-air.html?utm_source=menu&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=item-menu

Yea I was going to post this earlier. The dearth is cold air is bc it’s all pooled in a diff hemisphere...And then the Pacific flow takes care of any chance of building some of our own...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, friedmators said:

Even our German friend shafts C CT/MA. 

I mean, talk about thermal biases all day, but when push comes to shove,  you would like to see at least one stray determinitic run of any guidance slip, fall and land on a relatively snow solution for eastern areas...it makes me want to tell mother nature to take that block and shove it.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, talk about thermal biases all day, but when push comes to shove,  you would like to see at least one stray determinitic run of any guidance slip, fall and land on a relatively snow solution for eastern areas...it makes me want to tell mother nature to take that block and shove it.

Yeah that's one thing that's standing out.  

We all get that the snow maps are crap in marginal situations but you'd think once in a while one of them would go crazy that isn't named NAM.  

Its amazing the set up and it just so happens to come on the heels of a +4F to +8F month when there's no cold air anywhere close.  It's not like fresh Arctic air of teens is lurking just north of the border.

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

The mesoscale models that Scott referred to are really bullish for the hills. ORH pummeled.

800'-1000'+ in N ORH county could get buried .. prob like a 25% scenario, but if those areas are able to stay mostly snow and the low lvl warmth is overdone look out 

IMO for areas nw of 495 with some elevation it all comes down to the magnitude of the low lvl warm air that gets entrained into the circulation ..In the upcoming 18z / 0z runs, I would be watching the magnitude / depth of this warm layer closely .. personally I think it continues to tick a little cooler but I have my doubts that it will be enough to cause an earlier transition period to snow. I mean as it is, a lot of the meso models have elevated areas N of ORH as snow before flipping to rain after ~12z tmrw morning. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Dude... you have been thinking big storm since November, you are getting a big storm, a couple of degrees difference and you would have a new career.

 

I wish I could determine on which side of the globe the cold would take up residence following PV disruption. Weak spot for me, and I won't pull any punches...I messed that up, and it will probably be the difference btwn a blizzard or not.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's one thing that's standing out.  

We all get that the snow maps are crap in marginal situations but you'd think once in a while one of them would go crazy that isn't named NAM.  

Its amazing the set up and it just so happens to come on the heels of a +4F to +8F month when there's no cold air anywhere close.  It's not like fresh Arctic air of teens is lurking just north of the border.

I don't know for sure, put one thing to keep in mind is that most algorithms will not accumulate any snow above a certain temp.

This may be a situation where Kuchera actually works a bit, because the formula for a 35 +SN scenario would still spit out 6:1 ratios.

But if the GFS has 40, that formula will finally spit out a 0 snow ratio. That's the upper bound.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish I could determine on which side of the globe the cold would take up residence following PV disruption. Weak spot for me, and I won't pulls any punches...I messed that up, and it will probably be the difference btwn a blizzard or not.

That’s the thing.  If the strat splits and the bulk of the pv ends up in Europe we’re doing a 2011-12.  Impossible to ever know months ahead of time.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Just looking at stuff quickly:

Look at Euro hour 30... you think that cluster of lows arcing around the benchmark should consolidate just east of the Cape. Then at hour 36 it abruptly jumps > 150 miles to southeast of the benchmark.

Without that abrupt jump southeast, we'd have a nuke blizzard.

I wish I could dismiss it, but the 0z Euro and most guidance today does the same jump.

Why is it making that jump?

I think it's what I posted early this morning/last night: the bulk of vorticity is southeast of our ULL... vs. 4/97 when the bulk of vorticity circled north and even northwest of our ULL.

Is there a chance this depiction could evolve?

I think so, and the hi-res models (3k NAM, HRDPS, even 6z-12z RGEM shift) hint that we could get a closer consolidation.

But this is getting close. Could every model (Euro, GFS, CMC in particular) continue to be blind to the thermals and dynamic cooling? Sure, but would be more confident if at least 1 model (in addition to NAM) somehow overcame the thermal issues with a big snow hit in eastern SNE.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What I feel like we are seeing occur is the northern stream s/w is so strong it rips around the base of the closed off ULL and that tugs what would normally be a great closed ULL S and E with it and pulling all the best dynamics with it.

 

Just now, wxsniss said:

Just looking at stuff quickly:

Look at Euro hour 30... you think that cluster of lows arcing around the benchmark should consolidate just east of the Cape. Then at hour 36 it abruptly jumps > 150 miles to southeast of the benchmark.

Without that abrupt jump southeast, we'd have a nuke blizzard.

I wish I could dismiss it, but the 0z Euro and most guidance today does the same jump.

Why is it making that jump?

I think it's what I posted early this morning/last night: the bulk of vorticity is southeast of our ULL... vs. 4/97 when the bulk of vorticity circled north and even northwest of our ULL.

Is there a chance this depiction could evolve?

I think so, and the hi-res models (3k NAM, HRDPS, even 6z-12z RGEM shift) hint that we could get a closer consolidation.

But this is getting close. Could every model (Euro, GFS, CMC in particular) continue to be blind to the thermals and dynamic cooling? Sure, but would be more confident if at least 1 model (in addition to NAM) somehow overcame the thermal issues with a big snow hit in eastern SNE.

My post from an hour ago that fell on deaths ears.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Just looking at stuff quickly:

Look at Euro hour 30... you think that cluster of lows arcing around the benchmark should consolidate just east of the Cape. Then at hour 36 it abruptly jumps > 150 miles to southeast of the benchmark.

Without that abrupt jump southeast, we'd have a nuke blizzard.

I wish I could dismiss it, but the 0z Euro and most guidance today does the same jump.

Why is it making that jump?

I think it's what I posted early this morning/last night: the bulk of vorticity is southeast of our ULL... vs. 4/97 when the bulk of vorticity circled north and even northwest of our ULL.

Is there a chance this depiction could evolve?

I think so, and the hi-res models (3k NAM, HRDPS, even 6z-12z RGEM shift) hint that we could get a closer consolidation.

But this is getting close. Could every model (Euro, GFS, CMC in particular) continue to be blind to the thermals and dynamic cooling? Sure, but would be more confident if at least 1 model (in addition to NAM) somehow overcame the thermal issues with a big snow hit in eastern SNE.

I said the same thing...need to see at least one blizzard model.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said the same thing...need to see at o least one blizzard model. 

Ray look at 12z gefs individual members

A couple turn the lights out in SNH /NE mass even w the warm thermals

12z gfs had best 850's i seen on any global and the flip was faster and ooo So close to much faster

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