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January Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Canadian gets precip in here on Sunday. ....but it's a mix, even with 850 temps at -5c!  Ugh

I guess a better place to start than with rain.

Just saw it Mitch. Looks like precip is still on Monday from what I saw. I can double check. Either way, looked like sleet with a warm layer probably somewhere between 850 and 700mb given the southwest component of the winds. A very dicey period on the horizon. GFS looks icy north of Rt 50. 

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just saw it Mitch. Looks like precip is still on Monday from what I saw. I can double check. Either way, looked like sleet with a warm layer probably somewhere between 850 and 700mb given the southwest component of the winds. A very dicey period on the horizon. GFS looks icy north of Rt 50. 

You're right.  It is Monday,  but the temp map on  meteocentre.com says Sunday.  That's gotta be wrong, so the 850's must be warmer too. No worries.  12z will be different. 

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24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

If it stays as cold as forecasts say over the weekend I think regardless of the type of precip that falls from the sky there's going to be some slick spots. Sidewalks and bridges etc. I'm doubting too disruptive but I'm sure someone on this forum goes down hopefully a student so that mattieg might feel a little guilt

to your point, I think its fair to say that intial/midterm warmups as currently modeled, may be muted by the anamalous cold (thinking surface temps-because thats where we live).  Looking at Euro, i wasnt horrified by what i saw on 850 panels period of back and forth, but no prolonged torch.  Like Bob said, beyond that...shrug shoulders.  

edit - looking upstairs, all 3 ensembles 500's at 240 are in quite similar agreement.

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I am loving the look of that system the models are advertising for next weekend. The GFS has a nice HP right where we want it over the lakes. And it tracks south of us. The Euro has the HP but it is moving out and the storm cuts to the west of us. That one is worth watching IMO. I might not cancel winter before the tenth after all :)

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55 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I am not a fan of trending to warmer temperatures, I was really enjoying this massive cold spell. I see some 50s temps ahead, that does nothing for anyone!

We get those kinds of temps every winter. Hoping here it re-shuffles things a bit so the next time it gets cold it isn't quite as cold and we get a better storm track for our area.

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am loving the look of that system the models are advertising for next weekend. The GFS has a nice HP right where we want it over the lakes. And it tracks south of us. The Euro has the HP but it is moving out and the storm cuts to the west of us. That one is worth watching IMO. I might not cancel winter before the tenth after all :)

Eps don't seem to take it to our west, but I'm just going off the TT rudimentary eps maps.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

The precip on this GFS run is really light for Monday. Really a non event.

 

and the SS vort appears to just wither and die in the n. GOM.  I would like to put stock in the CMC but going with less of everything except cold seems prudent. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC is sticking to its guns get precip in early enough and sig more than the GFS. We probably won't know how quickly it moves in until 48-72 hour leads. 

It still has more precip than the GFS, but it has been trending drier if you cycle through its last four runs. 

ETA:  3 runs is probably better, as that leaves out most of yesterday's event.

RydOARf.gif

 

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Just now, cae said:

It still has more precip than the GFS, but it has been trending drier if you cycle through its last four runs. 

 

Yea, the amounts originally spit out for a sheared/progressive system seemed way too high. .5qpf is a big stretch but .2-.3 isn't. All comes down to timing. This is a very tough year in the med range. Seems the timing of shortwaves off the Pac is driving models nuts as you go out in time. I think the easiest way to look at it is if precip arrives between 12-18z it can/might be frozen. If it holds off until after 18z then warmth will probably win at the surface until you get up north. 

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

and the SS vort appears to just wither and die in the n. GOM.  I would like to put stock in the CMC but going with less of everything except cold seems prudent. 

Given how much has gotten squashed in this pattern, that would certainly follow the miserable trend! (But it could also trend wetter in short range--also a trend this winter as a whole, lol)

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC shows how we win the gradient game for the 13-14th.  Both the GEFS/EPS backed off on the idea overnight but the lead time is monsterous. Any time an op shows how you can win is a good thing either way. Idea is still on the table...until it isn't...lol

It would be the snow we are accustom to... Heavy and Wet.

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