January Mid-Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, Interstate said:

6z GFS trended better as well

It did trend east. But like Psu stated earlier,  let's  hope it doesn't get too far past us. I'm sure the Euro will trend east in the coming week as well.  On the positive side,  Thursday's event was originally depicted as a classic snowstorm for us on the Canadian and then trended too far east. This one is starting off at the right spot for an eventual hit for us if the correction distance remains the same.  Lol

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

It did trend east. But like Psu stated earlier,  let's  hope it doesn't get too far past us. I'm sure the Euro will trend east in the coming week as well.  On the positive side,  Thursday's event was originally depicted as a classic snowstorm for us on the Canadian and then trended too far east. This one is starting off at the right spot for an eventual hit for us if the correction distance remains the same.  Lol

By 12z today we will be praying for a west Trend...lol

[showmethesnow]

Not sure people should be worrying about the anything outside of 5 days let alone in the extended (10+ day) on the models . The general overall pattern through the CONUS has been poorly handled repeatedly by the models in the extended and even outside of 5 days the models have handled some of the finer details within the general overall pattern erratically. 

Below is the 11-16 day 500 mb mean from the Dec 30th run. Notice that we have a trough extending all the way from the PV down into the Southwest. This effectively shoves the Ridging extending into Alaska farther west in the Pacific giving us a -PNA. Another response from this SW trough is we see SE ridging building creating higher heights to our south extending through our region and to our east. To further add insult to injury the models plant that SW trough there for an extended period of time. The models have shown this general type of setup in the extended before (Christmas time frame) which needless to say is not a good look.

 

Now below we have a forecast 7 days later for that same period of time. There have been some substantial changes from the previous map. What we now see is the upper portion of the trough extending down from the PV is now centered in the central US with a neutral tilt and on the base of the trough we have energy/shortwave rotating out of the SW. So what gives between this map and the previous? If you had read my post from several weeks ago this may all sound familiar because we went through this changes before (Christmas time period). In the previous map we were seeing a weakness in the SW getting established that surges rotating around the PV were taking advantage of. The surges of energy were directing most of their energy south/southwest into reinforcing this SW trough making it a semi permanent feature. But what we are seeing below is that most of the energy from these PV surges is now being directed south/southeast as signified by the shifting of the upper portion of the trough eastward. The weakness in the SW is not getting reinforced so we are now seeing it in the process of it being ejected eastward as well. The response we are seeing from the other features is somewhat significant as well. We are now seeing a +PNA as the ridging is allowed to build eastward. We see the SE ridging on the previous map now shifted Northeastward and the higher heights have now shifted from a SW/NE axis (SER +WAR) to more of a North/South (WAR). 

Now lets take the above map and try to guess the changes we will see until verification. My money would be on the following outcome, after all we have just seen something very similar already play out on the models recently. In the following model runs we will see less and less energy (till possibly none) from the polar surges directed into the SW weakness and more and more directed south/southeastward. This will result in a weaker and quicker shortwave rotating out of the SW. A quicker reestablishment of the ridging in the west (+PNA). We should also see the heights verify weaker, more easterly and break down quicker in the eastern US as they shift NE quicker. One other feature that will most likely change is we should see the upper trough (neutral tilt) shifted eastward as well probably into the Mississippi basin. Now temps leading into this time period are torching for the east. But if we see the changes I expect those warm anomalies will probably be muted a good deal and we should begin seeing significantly colder temps showing up in the central potion of the country and they should be progressing into the east much quicker then currently shown.

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Now to add insult to injury below we have the current 5 day 500 mb mean for days 11-16. Notice what it is trying to do again? It is in the process of once again establishing a trough into the SW with SE ridging and higher heights building into the eastern US. Now we have seen how the models mishandled the Christmas period in the extended. And odds are pretty good we are seeing the models once again fail in their extended for the coming time period. Maybe the 3'rd time is a charm but at this point I I strongly doubt it. The pattern that has been established has staying power and I highly doubt we see a total breakdown. A temporary relax, yes, a total breakdown, no. So if you want to get worked up about the extended, be my guest. But at this point in time I think it is needless worrying. One last thing to mention. Notice the Gulf of Alaska troughing (GOA)? This is a function of models seeing energy periodically rotating through this region. This is pretty much a wild card in our future runs. It can have major impacts in regards to our weather and yet the models have been very erratic in regards to it. That may be a feature that will not be nailed down until mid range, if in fact it exists. So that needs to watched at all times.

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One last thing. Though at this point the models have temps issues I really am interested into the time period into next weekend.

This is the overnight run for Friday leading into the weekend. Now if we take into account the changes I expect mentioned above. The upper portion of the trough we see in the central US (which is actually neutral though not shown on the map above) should be shifted to the east placing it around the upper Miss. basin due to less of the energy from PV surges going into the SW instead going SEasterly. Correspondingly the higher heights should be shifted east as well setting up WAR (Western Atlantic Ridging). The lower portion of the trough is positive tilt into Texas (again not shown) from the shortwave ejecting out of the SW. The shortwave, if I am correct in it being ejected quicker, should be located farther to the east (Louisiana, Miss. ?) What these two changes with the trough would mean is that we see a deep neutral tilted trough running down the Mississippi basin. Which is what we want to see for possible east coast snow storms. Now though we don't really see good backing of the flow the WAR will help draw any storm up the coast to a point. The question is, how far up the coast. Would really like to see some sort of troughing down around the 50/50 region but the WAR alone may get it done for us. Two flies in the ointment though. As I said the SW shortwave ejecting should be quicker but it also should be weaker. If it gets too weak there may be nothing to key on. The other is the energy rotating through the GOA. On this map we see a break down of the Ridge has occurred as a piece of energy has just rotated through. The timing, strength and how quickly that energy rotates through has an impact on how quickly the ridging can get fully established once again (quicker the better) which is key down stream in regards to our trough.

Now unlike what the models now suggest with temp issues as a low rides through or west of our region, if we see the changes I expect I think the bigger concern could possibly end up being that of suppression and OTS. But at this point I wouldn't favor that. Yet. 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

^^^

Great stuff, ShowMe!

[aldie 22]

Nobody quote that shiit!!

[mitchnick]

@showmethesnow If the pattern for the season holds out west, why wouldn't the pattern for the season of too far east for I95 also hold? My question is as much rhetorical as it is requiring a response. Don't get me wrong,  i understand patterns can morph as the season progresses, but sometimes they don't.  What  reasons,  if any, do you have suggesting the result for us would be different snow-wise?

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

@showmethesnow If the pattern for the season holds out west, why wouldn't the pattern for the season of too far east for I95 also hold? My question is as much rhetorical as it is requiring a response. Don't get me wrong,  i understand patterns can morph as the season progresses, but sometimes they don't.  What  reasons,  if any, do you have suggesting the result for us would be different snow-wise?

Good question.

Shorter wavelengths as we head into the heart of winter is one possibility. An actual semi permanent -NAO to back up flow and not this transient crap we've had. Slight shifting of the PV west. A well timed weak short wave rotating through the Southwest popping the tropical jet/SE ridge for a possible phase with the NS. And there are others I probably haven't even considered at this point.

Though we haven't scored big yet (except the coast) we have had a decent start to winter for our region as a whole considering we are in a La Nina (I know some would argue that, especially to the west). I honestly prefer the pattern we are seeing now over any possible pattern change. We have the cold, we have the trough in the east and ridge in the west and we have the PV rotating around the Hudson Bay region. I would gladly take that general setup any year and roll the dice especially if the pattern is of long duration.

As far as a possible pattern change through the heart of winter? I am not sure why anyone would be rooting for that. The look we have now is probably one of the better ones you are going to see in a La Nina and odds favor that any change would put us into a more typical Nina look which we do not want to see. And to be honest the way I see it breaking down probably torches us for a very extended period of time with little to no snow chances. Through the heart of winter no less. 

 

[Chris78]

Looks like the GEFS shifted east for next weekend. Hard to say what exactly happens but this may be our last chance for a week or two.

[WeathermanB]

Wondering if the east coast will suffer a fiery meltdown of a super january thaw for the rest of the month?

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Wondering if the east coast will suffer a fiery meltdown of a super january thaw for the rest of the month?

Why yes...I am wondering.

[Scraff]

I’m not sure why people want to torch the creme brûlée.   We don’t even know what’s going to happen Monday!  Seriously who knows?  The models certainly don’t

[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Wondering if the east coast will suffer a fiery meltdown of a super january thaw for the rest of the month?

prior 2 panels show this headed right for us at 384.  Is it right....no idea, but to say that a prolonged torch is imminent, IMO is a fools errand.

[pasnownut]

and in truth, as depicted above, shows a reload of the cold if you toggle through the loop.  AO appears to be somewhat favorable when i looked at the indicies, so it will be interesting to see if the rubber band has enough stretch to not snap, and come back to what weve seen.  

BTW, showme....that was a nicely done write up.  Will be fun to see how this evolves.

Nut

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’m not sure why people want to torch the creme brûlée.   We don’t even know what’s going to happen Monday!  Seriously who knows?  The models certainly don’t!

They sure don't,  but having the Gfs on our side is better than that d@mn Euro. When it was the old Euro vs. the old Gfs, Euro was king. The 1/16 blizzard proved to me that the Gfs had greatly improved, especially compared to the upgraded (?) Euro. This year, although the Gfs may be a bit slow (and maybe more than a bit at times) to catch features,  when it does its forecast is closer to verifying.  Additionally,  it has not jumped around like the Euro. The Euro literally had every possible snow forecast from nothing to 9" imby in the 5 days leading up to Thursday's event. It was horrendous and I won't believe it unless the Gfs shows the same. 

[Ji]

GEFS Pretty wet next weekend. Lets do this

 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They sure don't,  but having the Gfs on our side is better than that d@mn Euro. When it was the old Euro vs. the old Gfs, Euro was king. The 1/16 blizzard proved to me that the Gfs had greatly improved, especially compared to the upgraded (?) Euro. This year, although the Gfs may be a bit slow (and maybe more than a bit at times) to catch features,  when it does its forecast is closer to verifying.  Additionally,  it has not jumped around like the Euro. The Euro literally had every possible snow forecast from nothing to 9" imby in the 5 days leading up to Thursday's event. It was horrendous and I won't believe it unless the Gfs shows the same. 

to your point, while the upgrades for the GFS and EURO may have fixed some things, they surely have affected the EURO IMO.  as my knowledge is limited, I think many will agree that the GFS has markedly closed the gap, and needs better consideration (at least this year anyway), as it has had a better handle on the pattern recognition.  

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

GEFS Pretty wet next weekend. Lets do this

 

Last hurrah.  But it will be warm leading into it so ice might be less interesting.  Also it’s cold but good ice requires sub 25 I think.  2m temps don’t look that great to me.  Just random thoughts. 

[clskinsfan]

21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

prior 2 panels show this headed right for us at 384.  Is it right....no idea, but to say that a prolonged torch is imminent, IMO is a fools errand.

Yeah. I noticed that as well. Another big cold dump towards the end of the GFS run. If it is correct we can only hope the trough orientation would be favorable for our area.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

GEFS Pretty wet next weekend. Lets do this

 

Hey.....looky whos back!  lol

You must have been a cat in your past life, cause you die a thousand deaths in this sport.  Yeah, looking at overnight/early morning runs, was definitely better than expected. 

Seasonal tendencies.

 

 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Last hurrah.  But it will be warm leading into it so ice might be less interesting.  Also it’s cold but good ice requires sub 25 I think.  2m temps don’t look that great to me.  Just random thoughts. 

huhh??

get another cup of coffee....

and look at perty maps above and below your post.

its a hurrah alright, but not convinced a last one??

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I noticed that as well. Another big cold dump towards the end of the GFS run. If it is correct we can only hope the trough orientation would be favorable for our area.

from my view, leading up to 384 was more central based, not east (mind you this is just 2m temps), but it looked like it was heading back our way.

[Interstate]

Went negative just a little too soon

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Went negative just a little too soon

I'll tell you what, that wasnt far off from something decent down here.  Verbatim, just hate waiting for the cold.  Typically dont fair well w/ them, but plenty of time for changes...good or bad.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Went negative just a little too soon

Yeah, and as a result, it would feel like the tropics around here with the 60's!

[MD Snow]

A week out, I'm just glad we're not in the bullseye and i'm fine with it still be inland. Don't want to get the eastern trend going to early. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll tell you what, that wasnt far off from something decent down here.  Verbatim, just hate waiting for the cold.  Typically dont fair well w/ them, but plenty of time for changes...good or bad.

 

Huge ridge out in front. 50-50 high? lol. NA is a tad hostile. Still time, but if this is amped it's going to track inland. Might have to head to Canaan for this one.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, pasnownut said:

I'll tell you what.  that wasnt far off from something decent down here.  verbatim, just hate waiting for the cold.  typically dont fair well w/ them, but plenty of time for changes...good or bad.

 

It's a timing setup similar to 13-14 but a tighter window. If we can get some good looks inside of hr96 it will be a lot easier to figure out. Until leads shorten it's going to be shotgun style soltuions. This run was a step back with no confluence or CAD hp leading in. But a step back on an op 7 days out carries no weight 

[pasnownut]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Huge ridge out in front. 50-50 high? lol. NA is a tad hostile. Still time, but if this is amped it's going to track inland. Might have to Head to Canaan for this one.

yeah that ridge is a bugger.  I'd argue that we see this trend further SE, but thats merely a hunch....weve not been on the warm side for a while, so I'd not place any bets...even w/ house money.

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Huge ridge out in front. 50-50 high? lol. NA is a tad hostile. Still time, but if this is amped it's going to track inland. Might have to head to Canaan for this one.

It worked in Jan/Feb 14. Sometimes a 50/50 high is a good thing. Lol

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It worked in Jan/Feb 14. Sometimes a 50/50 high is a good thing. Lol

It's an op run a week out. Lots will change. Going with seasonal trend, this should evolve to a weaker wave moving along the boundary as Arctic air bleeds in- probably too late. lol.