January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Herb@MAWS]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

GEFS Pretty wet next weekend. Lets do this

 

Having trouble telling if "wet & warm" or "wet & minimally cold enuf".

[poolz1]

32 and pillows in our future?  I see it as a good sign that we didn't get another shift east. 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's an op run a week out. Lots will change. Going with seasonal trend, this should evolve to a weaker wave moving along the boundary as Arctic air bleeds in- probably too late. lol.

This will be a really good test of ops and ens in the mid range. The trend to weaken/flatten has been real this year. There's been a lot of modeled strong cutting lows in the med-long range that have morphed as leads shorten. 

This setup is a knife edge with no block but a viable chance nonetheless. It's also the only tangible thing to watch unless Monday juices up instead of drying out. 

[Climate175]

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Well if it can snow in Denver the day after it was 70, than it let be done! I mean we’re a snow town right? 

[Bob Chill]

Gefs improved but still quite a mixed bag next weekend. Shifted east in general and more mixed or snow solutions showing up. A step in the right direction but not much clarity. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs improved but still quite a mixed bag next weekend. Shifted east in general and more mixed or snow solutions showing up. A step in the right direction but not much clarity. 

We've tried ensembles with great/perfect looks at 7 days this year without any results.  Let’s try imperfect and see what it gets us, eh?

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We've tried ensembles with great/perfect looks at 7 days this year without any results.  Let’s try imperfect and see what it gets us, eh?

We really only had 1 case of a truly good look so they have been very rare. Flawed events are much more of a staple here anyways. Especially in prime climo. The upcoming weekend could break right. It would fit our MO. Miss out on any and all chances during a prolonged cold period and then scoring on the last hurrah before things turn hostile. The MA is good like that. 

I'm starting to lean towards the hostile pattern after next weekend lasting a week tops (I'm talking the continental pattern and not east focused).Starting to see signs of the cold factory returning in nw canada. Dealing with a trough west/ridge east while cold is building in nw canada is a lot different than dealing with a crap pac jet destroying the continent. We'll know either way in about a week. Personally, I would really enjoy some warmth if I know it's temporary. 

[WEATHER53]

Old fashioned mega front Friday evening. Goes from 55 to 25 in 4 hours 

[mitchnick]

What! No 12z Navgem?  I think my new favorite model has what we're looking for next weekend,  but I don't have temp maps (EDIT: looks like thicknesses would support snow.) But it sure looks good what I see on TT. Here's a link to 156 hrs. Proceed from there with weenie caution. Lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018010612&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=202

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

@showmethesnow If the pattern for the season holds out west, why wouldn't the pattern for the season of too far east for I95 also hold? My question is as much rhetorical as it is requiring a response. Don't get me wrong,  i understand patterns can morph as the season progresses, but sometimes they don't.  What  reasons,  if any, do you have suggesting the result for us would be different snow-wise?

When it's 60 and the storm track is 500 miles northwest that's a big pattern problem. When we miss snow to our north by 50 miles then to our east by 50 miles that's as much bad luck and chaos. Yea small scale problems caused that but it wasn't a huge pattern problem. No 2 storms are clones and very small differences that amount to noise could mean snow next time. It wasn't a great pattern but not awful either.  Roll the dice enough times and we could score. 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO showed some ice for most everyone (monday). Surface temps are 33/34 or so in DCA but as many have said before can't see a reason it wouldn't accrete. 850s aren't bad either, unless there is a warm layer elsewhere could be some snow too.

Kinda want to start a thread and test my luck, think we've moved out of medium range. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO showed some ice for most everyone (monday). Surface temps are 33/34 or so in DCA but as many have said before can't see a reason it wouldn't accrete. 850s aren't bad either, unless there is a warm layer elsewhere could be some snow too.

Kinda want to start a thread and test my luck, think we've moved out of medium range. 

Start the thread.   Was wondering what happened to the threat. Nobody was talking it up.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What! No 12z Navgem?  I think my new favorite model has what we're looking for next weekend,  but I don't have temp maps (EDIT: looks like thicknesses would support snow.) But it sure looks good what I see on TT. Here's a link to 156 hrs. Proceed from there with weenie caution. Lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018010612&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=202

Very nice run.  Looks like a rain—>snow scenario.  I imagine with that track it’s a decent hit. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro took a step towards the rest of guidance next weekend. Finally amplifies something along the east coast behind the cutter. It's a miss east and weak but first time it even saw the thing. 

Gfs west euro east. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro took a step towards the rest of guidance next weekend. Finally amplifies something along the east coast behind the cutter. It's a miss east and weak but first time it even saw the thing. 

Gfs west euro east. 

The Euro sucks anymore. Absolutely sucks. We’ve seen this movie before, the Euro shows everything as a miss east then it trends west with the rest of the guidance a couple days before and becomes a hit. It’s been the same song and dance all winter

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro sucks anymore. Absolutely sucks. We’ve seen this movie before, the Euro shows everything as a miss east then it trends west with the rest of the guidance a couple days before and becomes a hit. It’s been the same song and dance all winter

It's been struggling lately. Can't argue that. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro sucks anymore. Absolutely sucks. We’ve seen this movie before, the Euro shows everything as a miss east then it trends west with the rest of the guidance a couple days before and becomes a hit. It’s been the same song and dance all winter

We can only wish that’s how it plays out this time.  Happy hour could be fun today

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs improved but still quite a mixed bag next weekend. Shifted east in general and more mixed or snow solutions showing up. A step in the right direction but not much clarity. 

Very improved. There is a dual snow max days 7-9 and the southern one is right over us. The first one is from the initial wave that cuts.

[poolz1]

SOI took a pretty good dip today...a smaller dip yesterday after being + the past few days.  I would think this argues for the warm up we see next week and followed a pretty good cold shot after the storm next weekend.

As Bob mentioned, GEFS start to reload the cold in Can toward the end of the run.  Most MJO plots I see take us briefly into 4 while loosing amplitude and pos heading toward the COD.  Without a doubt, we will hit our thaw period but things could reload pretty quick after that.

[PDIII]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

GEFS Pretty wet next weekend. Lets do this

 

It should be the ji storm if it happens.  you have been on it for a couple of days now.  I am pretty sure I am going wisp next weekend... chase/ ski.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Strange action STJ in the Caribbean on the NAM in 2-4 days, The whole thing is moving northwest. Any ideas? Maybe a big ice storm coming... (day7-8)

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Strange action STJ in the Caribbean on the NAM in 2-4 days, The whole thing is moving northwest. Any ideas? Maybe a big ice storm coming... (day7-8)

I don’t see how this can be a big ice storm with out CAD..and 60 day before.  Rain to snow sure.  Ice is harder than snow it seems I mean for good ice not 32 and tree glaze at 3am

[psuhoffman]

I'd keep an eye out for something to dig into the trough behind the day 7 threat.  Nothing there now but there is a 1-2 day window where the trough looks in a good position and depth if something were to dive in during that time.  After that we enter the ugly. But I doubt it lasts long. 

The degradation of the pattern seems related to the propagation of the mjo and associated trough ridge configuration across the Pacific. But the base state should return once that wave passes or dies. After that if we can time up some Atlantic help the next time the epo loads we could get a nice period during peak snow climo in early February. 

[psuhoffman]

This is what I mean day 8-9. This isn't a bad look if something were to dive in there. And it's not just this run I've noticed the look a few times across guidance. Gfs has some weak vorts that wash out but this is the type of thing where IF...that look is real something could pop up there at shorter leads. 

[Bob Chill]

Totally agree Psu. We haven't had a good depth and axis to work at all so far. Big amplification and deep cold is not how we roll here. We just need a more normal amplitude trough to open the door and put our region in the crosshairs. That panel you posted is money for a quick hitter. GoM is closed for business but getting even a weak slp to form in the lee of the apps to our south and we can score a minor/mod event region wide.

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Totally agree Psu. We haven't had a good depth and axis to work at all so far. Big amplification and deep cold is not how we roll here. We just need a more normal amplitude trough to open the door and put our region in the crosshairs. That panel you posted is money for a quick hitter. GoM is closed for business but getting even a weak slp to form in the lee of the apps to our south and we can score a minor/mod event region wide.

we need a southern stream. PD2 started with temps around 11 degrees. 

[WeathermanB]

Rumors of a snowstorm coming around next weekend according to models? Or does Delaware get shafted

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Rumors of a snowstorm coming around next weekend according to models? Or does Delaware get shafted

Delaware gets a big hit according to GEFPSECMWF. 24-36" just south of Dover. Just kidding. Too far out to have any minute details. Inland looks like a better chance that costal areas at this point, but we're way too far out either way. Good signal for sure on the ensembles (except for EPS)

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

we need a southern stream. PD2 started with temps around 11 degrees. 

Honeslty, I think that will come but prob not until Feb. Seasonal and weekly guidance is looking pretty good from Feb into March. The more stuff I look at the more I think that the flip in the pac showing up will be temporary and the cold east base state will return. Feb will always be our best month for bigger storms so unless we get stuck in a multi week shutout pattern there is no reason to think Feb is going to be a disaster.