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Dec 22-23 snow/ice threat


ORH_wxman

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs shouldnt be looked at in this setup then? Whats the use if temps are the real concern...round 2 has juice so if you slam that into a 28-31F LLC, xmas lights out.

GFS is good to look at for other things in this like synoptic forcing, but I would def favor the RGEM low level temp profile over it.

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We've been focusing on the obvious flash freeze scenario near BOS...but if you believe the RGEM and even the GFS if you adjust for a warm bias there, then the south coast of CT could get a nasty one tomorrow night too. Like it goes 40F to upper 20s on the RGEM.

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I just don't see this being that bad in New England. Yes I agree that .5'' of ice accretion is trouble but that's not even in the ballpark of '08 or what happened in October '11. Maybe I'm just desensitized after those two events, or because I moved somewhere with buried lines...

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've been focusing on the obvious flash freeze scenario near BOS...but if you believe the RGEM and even the GFS if you adjust for a warm bias there, then the south coast of CT could get a nasty one tomorrow night too. Like it goes 40F to upper 20s on the RGEM.

I was just thinking about that. Does it even get to the 40s first though?

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Just now, CT Rain said:

I was just thinking about that. Does it even get to the 40s first though?

40s prob seems a bit too warm, but even if it just makes it to 35F for a few hours ad then drops to 28F, that's a disaster for roads and prob will catch people off guard who assumed once it was in the mid 30s, they'd be fine.

 

Further north in your 'hood, it's prob never sniffing freezing until really late.

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11 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I just don't see this being that bad in New England. Yes I agree that .5'' of ice accretion is trouble but that's not even in the ballpark of '08 or what happened in October '11. Maybe I'm just desensitized after those two events, or because I moved somewhere with buried lines...

The 1998 ice storm had power lines sagging down to ground level without breaking and power stayed on. I've never seen anything like that since. That was around 1" of ZR mixed with IP at Sugarloaf, ME.

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Some of the mesos are pretty icy for a large part of the region Saturday morning. Seems like we get a break tomorrow night with maybe some spotty FZDZ. A slug of precip moves in Saturday morning. It still seems like some guidance is not handling the cold well enough. It's not going to warm up above 32 today past 128, nor is it going to refuse to drop where winds turn back NW. Some guidance do not even want to get the CF past Logan...(Swiss). Interesting 30-36 hrs ahead. 

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