OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Would not be surprised if the gradient between ASH and Dentrite is like 7" to 3" I'm a little narrower than that right now, 6.5" for Brian and 4.5" for ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice. Now all I need is my own MOS. I'm waiting to get referenced in the AFDs like PF..."6-8" at the coop." I like that. Maybe your MOS ID can be KOOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I like that. Maybe your MOS ID can be KOOP. What would Kevin's MOS ID be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Two seperate cold tucks on the 00z NAM...nice. One tomorrow evening/night and then another Saturday mid-afternoon. What a disaster for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: What would Kevin's MOS ID be? KOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: KOOK Too bad Glasgow, MT already claimed KGGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Two seperate cold tucks on the 00z NAM...nice. One tomorrow evening/night and then another Saturday mid-afternoon. What a disaster for E MA. Biggest question I have with this is what happens post 18z Saturday. I'm pretty sure BDL is sub 0c until that time... after that I'm not so sure but it's definitely a forecast dillemma as that's when the good QPF is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Biggest question I have with this is what happens post 18z Saturday. I'm pretty sure BDL is sub 0c until that time... after that I'm not so sure but it's definitely a forecast dillemma as that's when the good QPF is. Yeah I'm worried of like a huge chunk of the interior being like 27F when moderate precip is overspreading the area on Saturday midday and afternoon...then what happens Sat evening when precip could become briefly heavy and another quarter to half inch falls? Do we have a bunch of people rotting in the upper 20s still? Esp over eastern areas if we get a 2nd cold tuck ala NAM. Though maybe the 2nd cold tuck is just a signal that we never lose a northerly wind at all in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: KOOK KYPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm worried of like a huge chunk of the interior being like 27F when moderate precip is overspreading the area on Saturday midday and afternoon...then what happens Sat evening when precip could become briefly heavy and another quarter to half inch falls? Do we have a bunch of people rotting in the upper 20s still? Esp over eastern areas if we get a 2nd cold tuck ala NAM. Though maybe the 2nd cold tuck is just a signal that we never lose a northerly wind at all in between. Yeah that's the question I have. Is it 32 and rotting by 18z Saturday or a whole different game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: KYPE I would go KHYP, but I think you got the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Yeah that's the question I have. Is it 32 and rotting by 18z Saturday or a whole different game? Huge difference between 29 and 31 really. 31 you may just be able to run off a bunch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 round 1 is weak. If we below freezing as nightime falls on Sat then round 2 will be icey. rgem is pretty bad and close to disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 At least wait till Rev is awake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Huge difference between 29 and 31 really. 31 you may just be able to run off a bunch of QPF. Unless you have a good dewpoint drain.....2008..cough...2008. 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah that's the question I have. Is it 32 and rotting by 18z Saturday or a whole different game? Congrats on no power on the RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Yeah, I'm going ahead and assume I won't have power by Sunday after looking at RGEM. Jeez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Although if I'm referencing a 31F icestorm like 2008...I should be fair to oceanst that even that storm ran off a lot of QPF. We prob ran off like 1.5-1.7" of water in that...and accretion was around 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 RGEM is a pretty significant event here. Good snow thump round one, good glazing round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unless you have a good dewpoint drain.....2008..cough...2008. Congrats on now power on the RGEM: Man... the Reggie is basically 20s to New Haven Saturday at 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unless you have a good dewpoint drain.....2008..cough...2008. Congrats on no power on the RGEM: Verbatim that has the potential for 10k+ w/o power in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Although if I'm referencing a 31F icestorm like 2008...I should be fair to oceanst that even that storm ran off a lot of QPF. We prob ran off like 1.5-1.7" of water in that...and accretion was around 1.25" Exactly. NAM and RGEM at least seem consistent on around 0.50" to 0.75" QPF with round 2 up here. Which could be plenty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Was just about to post the RGEM.... Saw it and cringed a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Verbatim that has the potential for 10k+ w/o power in MA. You might want to add a zero or even two. It has a solid 3/4" qpf of ZR in a large area...so that could be a half inch of accretion. We'll see if other guidance continues to show this, but it's def concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I would not want to be along the rte 8 corridor sat night...call eversource now there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Man... the Reggie is basically 20s to New Haven Saturday at 9z. It's ridiculous cold over almost all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 gfs is a good 5F warmer than rgem, never understood why its this bad with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That is some damaging ice on the Reggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: That is some damaging ice on the Reggie We hope it just damages those that want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You might want to add a zero or even two. It has a solid 3/4" qpf of ZR in a large area...so that could be a half inch of accretion. We'll see if other guidance continues to show this, but it's def concerning. That would be days w/o power for many. Different kind of Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs is a good 5F warmer, never understood why its this bad with temps. It doesn't have the resolution of a model like the RGEM. RGEM also has a lot more vertical layers I believe which allows it to process low level CAD better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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