Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Actually nothing is. But keep on spinning! Every single piece of guidance if you shave off the known degrees due to bias in these setups keeps 32 or below into Sat nite. I hope you are really hitting this hard on air tonight . People are mad enough at you after this week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Every single piece of guidance if you shave off the known degrees due to bias in these setups keeps 32 or below into Sat nite. I hope you are really hitting this hard on air tonight . People are mad enough at you after this week lol They are? Our forecast has been pretty consistent. If I were you I wouldn't expect 1/2" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Troubling how much DIT is willing, wishing, and grinding his teeth with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: They are? Our forecast has been pretty consistent. If I were you I wouldn't expect 1/2" of ice. 50’s and damaging winds as late as noon telecast yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: They are? Our forecast has been pretty consistent. If I were you I wouldn't expect 1/2" of ice. NAM bufkit is 0.61" QPF for the event, let's call that 0.75" A first approximation (not really that scientific) is 70% of QPF can be converted into ice accumulation. So all of that 0.75" would need to fall as FZRA to reach 0.5" ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Troubling how much DIT is willing, wishing, and grinding his teeth with every storm. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We are Meso'd on Goes 16 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-48-0-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We are Meso'd on Goes 16 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-48-0-50 The meso lives over the Northeast. Unless another region requests it be moved, it will be overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 48 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: NAM bufkit is 0.61" QPF for the event, let's call that 0.75" A first approximation (not really that scientific) is 70% of QPF can be converted into ice accumulation. So all of that 0.75" would need to fall as FZRA to reach 0.5" ice. Oh boy... you are setting yourself up for a Saturday post that's "Well you all get your wish, it's raining out and 34F just like you hoped it would be." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 This is a pretty substantial event for me up here in Central NH. .25 to .50" of ice. OceanSt, PF do you really buy this up here? I always over perform in CAD. Seems excessive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Man congrats Dendrite on this one, that's a thumper the dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Man congrats Dendrite on this one, that's a thumper the dumper He’s money this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: He’s money this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This is a pretty substantial event for me up here in Central NH. .25 to .50" of ice. OceanSt, PF do you really buy this up here? I always over perform in CAD. Seems excessive? Half is probably on the high end, but a quarter is totally believable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Man congrats Dendrite on this one, that's a thumper the dumper What are you thinking for our area and timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This is a pretty substantial event for me up here in Central NH. .25 to .50" of ice. OceanSt, PF do you really buy this up here? I always over perform in CAD. Seems excessive? To be honest I think that forecast looks fine (albeit too generalized to capture all the meso-climates) and I'd push the bigger ice more to ORH and NE Mass on northward. That map seems to under-do it like the area from CON to GYX where I think the heaviest ice could be. To be honest though as I've said a few times...I don't want to downplay .25-.5" of ice but I think infrastructure-wise, that's only scattered outages at best if those are the actual amounts seen. Sure it's a mess but you want a solid .4-.5" to start having more impact. The October wind storm should've cleaned things out too...or maybe left more hangfire? Hard to say. Anecdotally I feel these events generally end up 1/2-1/3". It takes a lot to get a half inch but maybe the rain is there. I could see you getting a few tenths of IP too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: To be honest I think that forecast looks fine (albeit too generalized to capture all the meso-climates) and I'd push the bigger ice more to ORH and NE Mass on northward. That map seems to under-do it like the area from CON to GYX where I think the heaviest ice could be. To be honest though as I've said a few times...I don't want to downplay .25-.5" of ice but I think infrastructure-wise, that's only scattered outages at best if those are the actual amounts seen. Sure it's a mess but you want a solid .4-.5" to start having more impact. The October wind storm should've cleaned things out too...or maybe left more hangfire? Hard to say. I do agree, larger ice amounts should probably shift east too. I see no reason the eastern areas are going to warm up enough to preclude FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: What are you thinking for our area and timing? tenth to .2 tomorrow afternoon into night, then Sat Am some maybe .1 to start then we rain, Christmas looks very sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I do agree, larger ice amounts should probably shift east too. I see no reason the eastern areas are going to warm up enough to preclude FZRA. Models really like that IZG-GYX-CON-LCI zone. Makes sense topographically too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Man congrats Dendrite on this one, that's a thumper the dumper 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: He’s money this year so far. This December is kicking my ass. I procrastinated in every way with the birds. I have hawk netting over my run and over the roof portion the snow got high enough to suck the net into it. Now I have the net frozen to it and I can't broom the snow off of it. I was sorta looking forward to a brief 55/55 torch to get me back to a clean slate. Instead now we have 4-8" tomorrow, decent ice on top of that, Xmas system, frigid temps and some -SN potential midweek, and then the system coming out of the south late week. At least I'm off until 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: He’s money this year so far. The Dendrite legend grows. On a Boston area TV weather forecast map, is he the furthest north shown? I figure for folks in BOS or SNE, that he's like the southern Adirondacks to SVT and in-between for Albany and Hudson Valley folks. For those living in Albany (at least when I lived there through high school), the Saratoga/Lake George region over to Manchester is the holy grail for winter. Growing up you'd always see that zone getting highlighted on TV broadcasts for winter events. It was like "up north" but still relatable to us in the greater Albany area...once you got north of there you just thought its wilderness and not comparable, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 My alma mater has been working on a hires WRF for our area along with cold air damming graphics. They've been working on a CAD index as well. The CAD graphics aren't available yet, but we do have some WRF images up. The model runs once a day at 00z. So these graphics I'm posting are all the way from 00z last night, but look at how damn cold they are for us. These are 2m temps valid 12z Sat, 18z Sat, and 00z Sun. Damn (dam?) cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: This December is kicking my ass. I procrastinated in every way with the birds. I have hawk netting over my run and over the roof portion the snow got high enough to suck the net into it. Now I have the net frozen to it and I can't broom the snow off of it. I was sorta looking forward to a brief 55/55 torch to get me back to a clean slate. Instead now we have 4-8" tomorrow, decent ice on top of that, Xmas system, frigid temps and some -SN potential midweek, and then the system coming out of the south late week. At least I'm off until 1/2. You look money for tomorrow's snows. From the southern Adirondacks through Killington and Okemo to your area and the Lakes. Best chance at 6" or more is in that zone, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Scott What is worst case you could see having say at least a 25% chance of verifying (Not forecasting) for ASH to NE mass away from shoreline ( regarding ice accretion) Im trying to understand damage potential and how much Qpf could fall as ice. Seems nobody is mentioning the chances of >.25 Seems like its a low confidence forecast, and that eastern areas should prepare for "issues" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: This December is kicking my ass. I procrastinated in every way with the birds. I have hawk netting over my run and over the roof portion the snow got high enough to suck the net into it. Now I have the net frozen to it and I can't broom the snow off of it. I was sorta looking forward to a brief 55/55 torch to get me back to a clean slate. Instead now we have 4-8" tomorrow, decent ice on top of that, Xmas system, frigid temps and some -SN potential midweek, and then the system coming out of the south late week. At least I'm off until 1/2. Yea never good to get caught with ya pants down in the farming business, been there done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: My alma mater has been working on a hires WRF for our area along with cold air damming graphics. They've been working on a CAD index as well. The CAD graphics aren't available yet, but we do have some WRF images up. The model runs once a day at 00z. So these graphics I'm posting are all the way from 00z last night, but look at how damn cold they are for us. These are 2m temps valid 12z Sat, 18z Sat, and 00z Sun. Damn (dam?) cold. We've been looking at it at the office. Funny enough it got worse with time during the last CAD event. The best verification on temps was like 3 runs before the event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Geezus Brian I hope those maps are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: We've been looking at it at the office. Funny enough it got worse with time during the last CAD event. The best verification on temps was like 3 runs before the event started. I didn't look during the last event. Did it trend too warm or too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: I didn't look during the last event. Did it trend too warm or too cold? Got way too warm, which was weird. Hard to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I didn't look during the last event. Did it trend too warm or too cold? Is the server in DITs basement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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