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Dec 22-23 snow/ice threat


ORH_wxman

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Just now, WintersComing said:

18z NAM stays below freezing the whole event in SNE

Not really...verbatim anyway...I mean for like 85-90% of the event it does, but it tries at the last minute to track the primary over the interior shooting temps well into the 40s and 50s for a brief time. I am quite skeptical of that.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is a massive cold tuck on the 18z NAM....biggest sig yet.

 

Then on Saturday night it tries to track the primary over NW CT and ORH...I think I'll take the "under" on that one...meaning south. :lol:

I think it'll be tough to get above freezing through most of Saturday down to atleast 495. Maybe squeak to freezing in the evening, if at all. Gonna come down to how much qpf falls for icing. 

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Interesting dichotomy between the NAM and GFS for snowfall Friday.

The GFS has a pretty uniform forecast temp profile near -8C, definitely good enough for dendrites in our part of the world. But the NAM actually has an unsaturated DGZ, and a big warm nose around 700 mb of -3C. That is leading to a difference in snow ratios, 15:1 for the GFS, less than 10:1 for the NAM (bulk of the accumulation is around 6:1). That's why the snow forecasts between the two models are a range of warning to sub-advisory.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not really...verbatim anyway...I mean for like 85-90% of the event it does, but it tries at the last minute to track the primary over the interior shooting temps well into the 40s and 50s for a brief time. I am quite skeptical of that.

Ya sorry.  Just saw that in the later frames that were taking a bit to load

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good snow growth it looks like for a while Sat afternoon...could be a little fluff bomb ongoing for a time in CNE before the ice moves in. Even down here we may get a brief burst for a few hours.

I'm concerned we end up with warning snows for S NH Friday, then warning snows for the mountains Saturday. Messaging is starting to get difficult.

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