RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The torch looks short lived, we can stomach that. Maybe it could result in a net gain, leaving small patches of white for xmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: We have 35F for BDL When does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Man, what a mess....I haven't even touched round II on Christmas day...never mind the big threat looming for New Year's week. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/12/christmas-weekend-trending-colder-with.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Take 'em down. Take 'em down. The corollary of the first commandment of forecasting is to expand "Thou shalt not use GFS 2m temps" to all model guidance in strong ageostrophic setups. Earlier today (while at work...glad they don’t seem to mind) I was looking at the GFS 2m temps and the 850s and trying to figure this out...Chris’s post helped me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, what a mess....I haven't even touched round II on Christmas day...never mind the big threat looming for New Year's week. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/12/christmas-weekend-trending-colder-with.html This and Wiz’s latest write-up are excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Earlier today (while at work...glad they don’t seem to mind) I was looking at the GFS 2m temps and the 850s and trying to figure this out...Chris’s post helped me a bit. If only it were as cut and dry as "850 temps > 3C = FZRA" It's a good place to start, but we've had pretty nasty icing events with a sounding sent up in the middle of it with only +1.5 for a warm nose, way up at 750 mb. No sleet at all from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS wants the snow to hang on a bit longer in N Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS wants the snow to hang on a bit longer in N Mass. With some run to run oscillations, the general trend the past 3 model cycles is to sink the snow a bit south...perhaps the pike region can get in on advisory stuff...close call. Rt 2 up to like central VT/NH looks pretty good though regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: With some run to run oscillations, the general trend the past 3 model cycles is to sink the snow a bit south...perhaps the pike region can get in on advisory stuff...close call. Rt 2 up to like central VT/NH looks pretty good though regardless. Not a huge storm, but one of the harder calls I have had since I started the blog in 2015. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Friday night into early Sat mornign could be extremely dangerous near BOS...that is a really classic cold tuck sig...and it gets stronger with each run. GFS is screaming it now...and we know it's not even a great with meso features. You could get something like 35F and then the meso low goes past, and 26F sloshes back right to the coast and right down into SE MA and RI flash freezing anything that got melted...and any standing moisture that won't evaporate since we're saturated and likely at least drizzling if not steady precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: With some run to run oscillations, the general trend the past 3 model cycles is to sink the snow a bit south...perhaps the pike region can get in on advisory stuff...close call. Rt 2 up to like central VT/NH looks pretty good though regardless. Yeah, I was sort of eyeballing Route 2 too. That looks like the starting point for being in a favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Look like about 4-8" and a good amount of freezing rain along MHT-PSM line. Nasty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Friday night into early Sat mornign could be extremely dangerous near BOS...that is a really classic cold tuck sig...and it gets stronger with each run. GFS is screaming it now...and we know it's not even a great with meso features. You could get something like 35F and then the meso low goes past, and 26F sloshes back right to the coast and right down into SE MA and RI flash freezing anything that got melted...and any standing moisture that won't evaporate since we're saturated and likely at least drizzling if not steady precip. I'm really impressed by the models with coarse resolution are really emphatic about a big cold tuck. Ugly look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm really impressed by the models with coarse resolution are really emphatic about a big cold tuck. Ugly look. Yeah this is one of the strongest sigs I've seen in a while for that. There's gonna be nothing to stop 20s sloshing right back to the coast when that passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Such awful timing. So many will be on the roads trying to finish up Christmas prep Friday night and Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is one of the strongest sigs I've seen in a while for that. There's gonna be nothing to stop 20s sloshing right back to the coast when that passes. Not sure if we get any more than a subtle tick down back this way but it's a big look for NE Mass and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Sorry for OT, but I have begun getting email notifications for every response to my post...how do I stop that? It started after that board reset...I looked at settings, but my emails notification wasn't on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sorry for OT, but I have began getting email notifications for every response to my post...how do I stop that? It started after that board reset...I looked at settings, but my emails notification wasn't on. It happened to me a few weeks ago. There is something to “uncheck”. I will look to see what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Not sure if we get any more than a subtle tick down back this way but it's a big look for NE Mass and Boston. Yeah...it does look like maybe a weaker tuck there as it goes by the south coast late Friday afternoon...but even with the regular CAD after that, it's gonna be a major battle to make it above freezing by 12z Sat for at least the northern half of CT it looks like...could last well into Saturday midday too depending on what happens with primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sorry for OT, but I have began getting email notifications for every response to my post...how do I stop that? It started after that board reset...I looked at settings, but my emails notification wasn't on. I had the same thing last week...I think I chose don’t notify me when somebody reply’s or follows etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Ray, underneath the reply box, there's a box that says "notify me of replies"...make sure that is turned off...you prob accidently clicked it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Click the little “Notify me of replies” to turn it off under the reply box (while replying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I had the same thing last week...I think I chose don’t notify me when somebody reply’s or follows etc. Ok, I was thinking that meant regular board notifications because it didn't say email....will turn it off. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The BOX point and click still has me getting to 47F Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ray, underneath the reply box, there's a box that says "notify me of replies"...make sure that is turned off...you prob accidently clicked it on. Bingo. Did it in mayhem thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The BOX point and click still has me getting to 47F Saturday I suppose this primary could still come back stronger and go into NY state...but I'm becoming very skeptical of that. It doesn't look strong enough...I envision it basically splitting in half and seeing another sfc reflection go over the Cape or SE MA as it tries to plow into the sfc cold dome. Where you are in N ORH county may never see freezing at all in the event. Still time to figure out that detail, but weaker primary is not a recipe for steering a low up through eastern NY with that type of CAD airmass and high in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I suppose this primary could still come back stronger and go into NY state...but I'm becoming very skeptical of that. It doesn't look strong enough...I envision it basically splitting in half and seeing another sfc reflection go over the Cape or SE MA as it tries to plow into the sfc cold dome. Where you are in N ORH county may never see freezing at all in the event. Still time to figure out that detail, but weaker primary is not a recipe for steering a low up through eastern NY with that type of CAD airmass and high in place. I think I'll hit like 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 A lot of media mets will rip and read and folks around here walking the dog at 11pm may be in for quite the shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The BOX point and click still has me getting to 47F Saturday 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I suppose this primary could still come back stronger and go into NY state...but I'm becoming very skeptical of that. It doesn't look strong enough...I envision it basically splitting in half and seeing another sfc reflection go over the Cape or SE MA as it tries to plow into the sfc cold dome. Where you are in N ORH county may never see freezing at all in the event. Still time to figure out that detail, but weaker primary is not a recipe for steering a low up through eastern NY with that type of CAD airmass and high in place. The very tail of the MAV and MET have ORH at 39 00z Friday evening. Put me down for way, way under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: A lot of media mets will rip and read and folks around here walking the dog at 11pm may be in for quite the shock. Really? I'm surprised about that because all models really show a nasty look for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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