HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 A good thing to remember, if the 18Z GFS would verify even a slight shift West would sock Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 First images out of Barbuda and it's unsurprisingly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Some baroclinic effects also! Wind-field could expand also! It very much will once it's captured by the upper low, same as Hugo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/905554512571719681 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Now pulling NW, looks to make Landfall along the GA/SC coast This has been consensus for a day or two. Scrape Miami and then target the southern most SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: This has been consensus for a day or two. Scrape Miami and then target the southern most SC coast. Euro and GFS seem to have this locked in now. Still some time to change but the consensus has grown for a major impact from Florida to the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Based on speed of radar shows San Juan may be just outside or on the edge of some gusts over 60-70 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Better run for SE Florida on this 18Z GFS run. Keep the wind north along the coast and then west as she pulls north. Any inland track is worse with south wind as the eye passes... 50 mile change east has major (good) implications at least for Florida. Different story further north as storm has a better chance of staying stronger with eyewall over water.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Was just checking the Max. Potential Intensity maps for the Atlantic is it shows 910-920 mb for where Irma is now, so it may be close to being maxed out. Looks amazing on radar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NE bias on GFS continues to show with Irma. Go back and look at verification track and look at previous runs, you'll see GFS consistently too NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NE bias on GFS continues to show with Irma. Go back and look at verification track and look at previous runs, you'll see GFS consistently too NE.Throw up some charts or trend gifs or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danny007 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: NE bias on GFS continues to show with Irma. Go back and look at verification track and look at previous runs, you'll see GFS consistently too NE. Could you post link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The models seemed to have converged on a 3 day track...give or take 100 miles difference. Big question is when it makes the northern turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Irma Today - vis loop: http://www.vorklift.com/weather/8-2017/Irma_VisLoop_9-6-17.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Barbuda barely inhabitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 WOWhttp://www.mahobeachcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Doppler indicated velocity max here of 196 kts. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Good lord this thread is unreadable right now. If this ERC fully completes, with it moving towards the warmest waters in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean, I could certainly see it maxing out higher than it currently is/has been for the past day and a half. The storm isn't moving slow enough to really feel the effects of upwelling and until it gains more latitude, shear is minimal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, danny007 said: Could you post link please? Note the verification is S of GEFS mean and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Good lord this thread is unreadable right now. If this ERC fully completes, with it moving towards the warmest waters in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean, I could certainly see it maxing out higher than it currently is/has been for the past day and a half. Outer eye-wall appears closed with the inner contracting. Looks about 50% complete and God knows the size and strength after it's complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, andyhb said: First images out of Barbuda and it's unsurprisingly bad. Now this legitimately reminds me of Homestead. :/ (My father was a contractor and moved to Homestead post-Andrew. It looked like that for months/years.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Not sure if this is the place to ask, we are also in this cone, I know maybes are involved, but could someone direct me to the area I need to be for info for GA. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whisp Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Does anyone know of any surge maps for the intracoastal waterway between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale? I would assume the closer you are to one of the ocean inlets the worse it would be but I'm not sure if there is any precedent to really know i can at the least say that during king tides and even just slightly higher than normal tides the water comes up on parts of Las Olas blvd. that are landfill. also durig Sandy we didnt get any wind but only a storm surge that pushed water up across A1A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Folks are talking about Irma "scrapping" Miami, when is a scrape not really a scrape with a hurricane this intense? I look at satellite, radar and modeled paths and see a +\- 50 mile margin of error that is the difference between significant and catastrophic but still really bad either way for those who get "scraped". Matthew scraped but was less of a rabid beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Total devastation in Barbuda... (corrected spelling https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/1505370289562190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Casualbrain said: Total devastation in Barbado... Barbados and Barbuda are different places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Folks are talking about Irma "scrapping" Miami, when is a scrape not really a scrape with a hurricane this intense? I look at satellite, radar and modeled paths and see a +\- 50 mile margin of error that is the difference between significant and catastrophic but still really bad either way for those who get "scraped". Matthew scraped but was less of a rabid beast. Agree strongly. Even the GFS shows hurricane force winds along the coast...thats not a scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Assuming this ERC is happening, then PR radar seems to indicate the IEW eastern flank is beginning to break down. Though it may just be gaining some distance from the station. Thoughts? http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Raine1212 said: Not sure if this is the place to ask, we are also in this cone, I know maybes are involved, but could someone direct me to the area I need to be for info for GA. Thanks Georgia Emergency Management website - http://www.gema.ga.gov/Pages/default.aspx 6 counties in GA are shown under a State of Emergency per the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Folks are talking about Irma "scrapping" Miami, when is a scrape not really a scrape with a hurricane this intense? I look at satellite, radar and modeled paths and see a +\- 50 mile margin of error that is the difference between significant and catastrophic but still really bad either way for those who get "scraped". Matthew scraped but was less of a rabid beast. It's the difference between cat 4/5 and cat 1 winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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