SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: recon going in, we will find out soon enough, I don't see why it would drop that dramatically unless it's due to the ERC ERC's in highly intense systems can markedly drop the winds. As someone pointed out to me last night because the eye of Irma is bigger it may not weaken it as much as some other cat 5s with smaller eyes but I could definitely see it dropping down to a strong cat 4 if it underwent a 12-18 hour ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe but i'm not sure it is that simple. Well if it ends up a scrape, it's going to be so close to Miami and other metro areas that they'll have to assume the worst for planning purposes. It's not like we'll be 100% confident in a track 10 miles off the coast even less than a day out. That type of error is a tiny heading difference with a storm running parallel to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I would expect winds come down to 160 with the 11pm advisory. You can't maintain 185 forever, not even a super typhoon has ever done that for more then 48 hours with much higher heat content to work with. What data or guidance are you following that leads to this conclusion, other than guessing blindly due to ERC? Speculation is not science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Is it just me or does part of the southeastern part of the circulation look to be deteriorating a tad on IR? Assume this might have something to do with it being so close to Puerto Rico as it just started to occur when inflow into the eye/COC started to come off the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Maybe but i'm not sure it is that simple. What do you mean? The highest winds are confined to the center. Maybe I misunderstood the point you were trying to make, certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Guess I was correct earlier about an ERC, she's going to be massive tomorrow once it's completed. This is the first tropical cyclone I can recall that didn't weaken during ERC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This is a different monster than Matthew A- Yes it will make a very close approach to the FL coast with impacts ranging from miles. But this is a bigger storm than Matthew, also will be more intense on its approach to the FL coast. B- Storm surge will be a much bigger concern for FL than Matthew C- We could be talking about a major hurricane making landfall in SC versus the verison of Matthew that LFed in SC as a 85 MPH storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: ERC's in highly intense systems can markedly drop the winds. As someone pointed out to me last night because the eye of Irma is bigger it may not weaken it as much as some other cat 5s with smaller eyes but I could definitely see it dropping down to a strong cat 4 if it underwent a 12-18 hour ERC It's been very efficient in completing ERC's during its entire life, no reason to believe it won't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Is it just me or does part of the southeastern part of the circulation look to be deteriorating a tad on IR? Assume this might have something to do with it being so close to Puerto Rico as it just started to occur when inflow into the eye/COC started to come off the island. PR has several areas of mountains over 3500 feet. El Junque area on northeast side. I would have to guess that the west winds blowing over PR and then into the eyewall must have some negative affect. I am amazed Irma looks as good as she does being so close to this landmass. As she pulls WNW and away over the next several hours the environment should even get better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Is it just me or does part of the southeastern part of the circulation look to be deteriorating a tad on IR? Assume this might have something to do with it being so close to Puerto Rico as it just started to occur when inflow into the eye/COC started to come off the island. There was light shear earlier affecting it. The shear has since relaxed and the IR appearance of the SE quadrant has improved, even with its close proximity to PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Is it just me or does part of the southeastern part of the circulation look to be deteriorating a tad on IR? Assume this might have something to do with it being so close to Puerto Rico as it just started to occur when inflow into the eye/COC started to come off the island. Someone posted an animation of that leading up to its brush with PR and you'll see a fascinating phenomena go on as it rolls forward - like a bit of turbulence, as it brushes against the little set of islands just ahead of PR before it rolls north of PR. Post is here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The forecasted size increase sends chills down by back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 IEW and OEW looking more and more concentric every frame on TJUA. I remember a post a few days ago that even LakeEffectKing commented on that showed a model runs simulated radar showing the storm with 2 very concentric eyes where LEK even said it could be a situation where we have a cat 5 inside a cat 2 inside a tropical storm...wondering if that's what's happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Meaning what, exactly? (For those who aren't well versed in hurricane history, lol) Irmas twin from 2005. Irma just needs to get it's central pressure down to 898mb and they're identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: PR has several areas of mountains over 3500 feet. El Junque area on northeast side. I would have to guess that the west winds blowing over PR and then into the eyewall must have some negative affect. I am amazed Irma looks as good as she does being so close to this landmass. As she pulls WNW and away over the next several hours the environment should even get better... Agreed. Probably moving too quick and has too much of a trajectory north and west of the island to have any dramatic impact on the health of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: IEW and OEW looking more and more concentric every frame on TJUA. I remember a post a few days ago that even LakeEffectKing commented on that showed a model runs simulated radar showing the storm with 2 very concentric eyes where LEK even said it could be a situation where we have a cat 5 inside a cat 2 inside a tropical storm...wondering if that's what's happening now. TWC just confirmed it's a ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18z GFS was interesting, how Jose was literally 'feeding' Irma with additional moisture once it went inland. Such a direct , tropical feed like that could cause Irma to weaken more slowly. (once inland) The area of QPF was even expanded more outward. A lot of interesting things with a hurricane to it's left and another hurricane to it's right. These 2 canes could cause fringe effects on Irma's strength and intensity , 3+ days from now. (not fully recognized by models yet either) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 909.1mb extrapolated from recon, pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 140/145kt SFMR and FL in the SOUTHEAST eye wall. Damn... Can easily toss the 160mph prediction out the window then with those kind of winds still being measured in what is not even the strongest quadrant... Also no sign of a double wind max, still smooth and uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Amped said: Irmas twin from 2005. Irma just needs to get it's central pressure down to 898mb and they're identical. And they're both women's names which end in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: What data or guidance are you following that leads to this conclusion, other than guessing blindly due to ERC? Speculation is not science ERC is definitly occurring. I would argue at other times it's been below 185. Nhc has been alluding to that all day. Assuming strongest winds aren't sampled. This isn't speculation or a hunch. The inner eye wall is deteriating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The entire state of SC has hurricane force winds at 850mb on the GFS. Obviously all of this isn't going to mix down, but if your in a strong band, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: ERC is definitly occurring. I would argue at other times it's been below 185. Nhc has been alluding to that all day. Assuming strongest winds aren't sampled. This isn't speculation or a hunch. The inner eye wall is deteriating. Check the last couple frames on radar - IEW looks to be re-strengthening, and the moat is filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: ERC is definitly occurring. I would argue at other times it's been below 185. Nhc has been alluding to that all day. Assuming strongest winds aren't sampled. This isn't speculation or a hunch. The inner eye wall is deteriating. Recon and MIMIC definitely disagrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I would expect winds come down to 160 with the 11pm advisory. You can't maintain 185 forever, not even a super typhoon has ever done that for more then 48 hours with much higher heat content to work with. We've also never seen ocean temperatures this high. I don't think anything is off the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: The forecasted size increase sends chills down by back... The wind field expansion at the northern fla border could be from mid latitude climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: And they're both women's names which end in MA That's Rita, not Wilma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: The entire state of SC has hurricane force winds at 850mb on the GFS. Obviously all of this isn't going to mix down, but if your in a strong band, good luck. And I am in this in GA. Local mets are already saying it is possible for hurricane winds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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