LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: Settle down folks. My colleagues over here in Monterey are some of the foremost experts in the world on TCs, and they have even beens stumped by some of the behavior of both Irma and Harvey (the half eyewall Harvey had at landfall for instance). Everyone (including NHC) is just making their best guess on what is going on with some of these internal storm processes, based on the available data. There aren't many historic observations of a hurricane of this scale, that has maintained such a high intensity for so long. Yes, it looks like there are now concentric eyewalls. That doesn't necessarily mean the storm is weakening. It may be a sign of an impending weakening cycle (ERCs usually are), but this storm has surprised us many times. Agreed we are in uncharted waters. I said earlier some of the annular characteristics shown earlier could be at play. As in this is a form of hurricane not seen before that has the ability to maintain intensity despite internal structural changes. This storm will be studied for years to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: ERC is definitly occurring. I would argue at other times it's been below 185. Nhc has been alluding to that all day. Assuming strongest winds aren't sampled. This isn't speculation or a hunch. The inner eye wall is deteriating. 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Recon and MIMIC definitely disagrees... You guys aren't getting my point. It's not about the ERC. I'm speaking in regard to assuming its' affect on the storm, even numbering wind speeds it will drop to. It doesn't make any sense. Neither does suggesting NHC is alluding to something weaker than 185, when it's put out advisories all day at that speed. Speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Not sure if this was posted a few hrs ago as the hurricane hit the Virgin Islands. Charlotte Amalie buoy (or C-MAN station) gusts up to 85 kts (98 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: You guys aren't getting my point. It's not about the ERC. I'm speaking in regard to assuming its' affect on the storm, even numbering wind speeds it will drop to. It doesn't make any sense. Neither does suggesting NHC is alluding to something weaker than 185, when it's put out advisories all day at that speed. Speculation. What the hell effects are you talking about then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 916mb officially.. seems high I mean drop thingy in the ocean and it sends back the pressure. It's not like they're guessing. Pretty sure those guys know where to drop it. Also: L. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) M. Outer Eye Diameter: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS had Irma increasing to the 950's post PR then dropped back into the 920's quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This thing isn't even being phased by ERCs. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newshinycd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Settle down folks. My colleagues over here in Monterey are some of the foremost experts in the world on TCs, and they have even beens stumped by some of the behavior of both Irma and Harvey (the half eyewall Harvey had at landfall for instance). Everyone (including NHC) is just making their best guess on what is going on with some of these internal storm processes, based on the available data. There aren't many historic observations of a hurricane of this scale, that has maintained such a high intensity for so long. Yes, it looks like there are now concentric eyewalls. That doesn't necessarily mean the storm is weakening. It may be a sign of an impending weakening cycle (ERCs usually are), but this storm has surprised us many times. It wasn't radar beam attenuation that caused Harvey's east eyewall to appear to weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: If the eye goes within 50 miles of you, there'll probably be hurricane force winds, but the real damaging winds will be in the core. So a tick or two east might cause the impact for the Bahamas to be worse but eastern FL to be relatively spared. But west that same tick or two means catastrophic damage for eastern FL. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, newshinycd said: It wasn't radar beam attenuation that caused Harvey's east eyewall to appear to weaken? In the most recent scans, the echoes look to be weakening a bit in the eastern eyewall (doesn't look like an attenuation issue). Too early to tell whether this is a trend or just a momentary fluctuation. I'd trust the recon obs at this point, which don't show weakening winds or rising pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, jojo762 said: What the hell effects are you talking about then?? People with knowledge lacking that of a met, constantly obsessing over ERC's for the past few days. That's what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Euro was too far west on Matthew, GFS known bias likely too far east. Landfall between the 2 as 5, 2cnd landfall 4. no changes from am idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: In the most recent scans, the echoes look to be weakening a bit in the eastern eyewall (doesn't look like an attenuation issue). Too early to tell whether this is a trend or just a momentary fluctuation. I'd trust the recon obs at this point, which don't show weakening winds or rising pressure. He was asking about Harvey's eastern eye wall "appearing" weaker from CRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/5/2017 at 10:49 AM, hooralph said: Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while. "De l'Eden Rock, il ne reste que le rocher. Tout a disparu." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 hours ago, WildFlower said: Praying for something, anything, any kind of interference to make that nasty girl calm down a bit before she slams us here (south florida) AND/OR further up the coast!! First time I heard the name Irma I felt a bit anxious. I was member #660 when easternuswx was around, and I recognize many of you folks from that time. I lived in Stuart when I joined the old forum and experienced Francis & Jean. I appreciated you all then and I obviously still do. A BIGGG thanks to all for your posts and for sharing useful and intelligent information... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!! Wildflower, It's great to see you here. Hopefully, Irma will weaken and/or avoid southern Florida. In the meantime, I hope everyone takes the storm seriously and pays very close attention to the NHC and NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 For those of us with less-than-met understanding of hurricanes, what does "ERC" stand for? And what is it? I gather that it has something to do with the eye/eye wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, TimChgo9 said: For those of us with less-than-met understanding of hurricanes, what does "ERC" stand for? And what is it? I gather that it has something to do with the eye/eye wall eye-wall replacement cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, TimChgo9 said: For those of us with less-than-met understanding of hurricanes, what does "ERC" stand for? And what is it? I gather that it has something to do with the eye/eye wall Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TimChgo9 said: For those of us with less-than-met understanding of hurricanes, what does "ERC" stand for? And what is it? I gather that it has something to do with the eye/eye wall Eyewall replacement cycle. It's where a new eyewall forms outside and replaces the inner eyewall (IEW). The IEW will deteriorate through the evening as the outer eyewall replaces it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 How about RFQ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TimChgo9 said: For those of us with less-than-met understanding of hurricanes, what does "ERC" stand for? And what is it? I gather that it has something to do with the eye/eye wall ERC stands for Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Storm's outer rainbands consolidate into a solid ring of convection that surrounds the inner eyewall. Eventually subsidence on the inner edge of the outer ring of convection causes the inner eyewall to erode. Once the inner eyewall has eroded, the outer contracts and becomes the new "inner" eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: How about RFQ? Right Front Quadrant, the side with the forward momentum associated with it as it hits land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said: For those of us with less-than-met understanding of hurricanes, what does "ERC" stand for? And what is it? I gather that it has something to do with the eye/eye wall It means elephant raining cycle. No really its eye replacement cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Right Front Quadrant, the side with the forward momentum associated with it as it hits land.Haha thanks. Knew it had to be something simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Euro was too far west on Matthew, GFS known bias likely too far east. Landfall between the 2 as 5, 2cnd landfall 4. no changes from am idea So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that. I do agree with his landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that. I do agree with his landfall though. That looks terrible, can't be JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Interesting appearance on the latest radar loop from San Juan. You can clearly see the mesovortice rotating around the edge of the eyewall in a counter-clockwise manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that. I do agree with his landfall though. Actually his track looks like the 18Z GEFS mean almost to a t. So there is certainly 'some' support for his recurve track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That looks terrible, can't be JB. Looks more like DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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