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monsoonman1

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About monsoonman1

  • Birthday May 28

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFOE
  • Location:
    Topeka, KS
  1. Severe potential 2/24

    10% hatched tornado probs for AR/TN/MS/MO/KY. Pretty large area of 5% probs too. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  2. Severe potential 2/24

    I'm a fan of the HREF so far (it's only been around since October IIRC) as it did pretty well on 01/22 and it nailed that weird stuff in TX on the morning of 02/20. The 00z run has a messy convective mode tomorrow but it has some decent UH in good parameters with the line, so it points to a decent QLCS tornado day for AR, maybe into TN/MS.
  3. Severe potential 2/24

    SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ENCOURAGE SEVERAL BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES, WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICT A CONSIDERABLE COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG -- DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. Good tidbit from the new Day 2. Interesting that they would use the "strong tornado" wording for what is essentially a QLCS forecast. Not that you can't get strong tors from a QLCS, but typically SPC doesn't use that wording for this kind of setup. Also this: OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EARLIER IN THE DAY, AN ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY FORM ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITHIN WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
  4. Severe potential 2/24

    Nothing like some Broyles to bring some enthusiasm. Lots of things still up in the air, I'd say. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  5. Severe potential 2/24

    Enhanced risk out for day 2 from NE TX to MS/TN with strong tornadoes mentioned. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  6. Severe potential 2/24

    This is a pretty classic cold-season setup for the area. CIPS analogs have some big events (#2 event from 12z NAM was 03/01/1997) mixed in with some lesser ones, but pretty much all of them had some tornadoes. Analogs aren't perfect, but I like to use them to get an idea of the ceiling and floor of an event. The 18z NAM maxed out around 1000 MLCAPE in east AR, which would be sufficient for tornadoes, maybe even a strong one or two. Any increase in lapse rates would really help this setup. With all that said, this is definitely the best setup so far this year, so I'll be paying close attention.
  7. Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    There is a thread for Saturday, just for the info. I'll post in there in a bit.
  8. Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    Tornado watch up for parts of LA and TX. Only the 3rd watch of the year. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  9. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    Turns out there was an EF0 in Johnson County, TX last night. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  10. SPC has outlined Day 6 from east TX into AR and MS/AL. Only thing holding the setup back right now is lack of instability, but that could easily change so better keep an eye on this.
  11. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    HREF and HRRR indicate NW TX maybe into SW OK would be a good spot to chase. Not a bad setup by Feb standards. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  12. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    Marginal risk with 2% tornado area in OK/TX with mention of possible upgrade later. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  13. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    If you guys want some hope, check out @tlyzawx (Tornadotony) on Twitter. Basically says that there is a decent nocturnal tornado threat tomorrow in east OK/Ozarks Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
  14. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    Not as enthused about this setup as I was yesterday. Still some time for changes, but models have generally backed off from the potentially significant risk they had before. TX could see something from this Monday or Tuesday, however.
  15. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    There's a lot of time for things to shake out, and with such a large warm sector it's still pretty much anyone's guess as to where the biggest threat area will be. 12z Euro looked to put the bullseye in E TX. Wonder if SPC will do anything with the Day 4-8 outlook tonight.
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