wxsniss Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's still part of me that is leery of a huge swath of SNE just flashing to heavy snow sometime between 09z and 15z Saturday...the parts that flip over to non-snow in the first place of course (which could be most south of rt2 or even the NH/VT borders...we'll see). It will obviously take some good classic CCB dynamics...but they might make quick work of these 50mb marginal warm layers we're inspecting with a magnifying glass every run. Thankfully we still have a solid 12-18 hours to really figure it out. Agree. I don't have cross-sections yet from this run but based on 0z Euro it's marginal 850-800 temps between 6z-12z that we need to overcome in eastern SNE. Do we have a good CCB? I think the more southeast H5 digging on the 12z Euro is a positive trend. But it's more than just the verbatim interpretation of the Euro: RGEM/NAM are significantly warmer. 850Ts are > 0C north of the MA/NH border on the mesos. And a compromise between mesos / globals will not be good enough for Boston. I think we'd need globals to be correct and 48 hour mesos to be wrong for Boston to top 2-4" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Should be a fun event to watch from the outer fringe looking in. I hope some of you CNE folks get smashed. Early Spring snows are pretty sweet in the Northeast no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Should be a fun event to watch from the outer fringe looking in. I hope some of you CNE folks get smashed. Early Spring snows are pretty sweet in the Northeast no matter how you slice it. Got Sunday off? Maybe we take a weenie ride to weenie ridge near Wachusett? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Skiing into May for me...not that they will be open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Skiing into May for me...not that they will be open... Stock up supplies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Stock up supplies Yep. Hubb fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Agree. I don't have cross-sections yet from this run but based on 0z Euro it's marginal 850-800 temps between 6z-12z that we need to overcome in eastern SNE. Do we have a good CCB? I think the more southeast H5 digging on the 12z Euro is a positive trend. But it's more than just the verbatim interpretation of the Euro: RGEM/NAM are significantly warmer. 850Ts are > 0C north of the MA/NH border on the mesos. And a compromise between mesos / globals will not be good enough for Boston. I think we'd need globals to be correct and 48 hour mesos to be wrong for Boston to top 2-4" total. Agreed. Need to see the mesos start to reverse course at 18z otherwise people can get burned by the euro (again). The mesos carry a lot more weight on March 31st imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 45 minutes ago, dryslot said: For the clowns............ If the Euro comes to fruition my power may be out until Mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: I will take that Euro op run any day! I think it's nuts. Something seems funky around hour 48-54...I think based on the mid-level lows and even the thermal profiles showing dynamic cooling that the strong precip babdshould be further south in SVT/SNH instead of up around MPV. That's the difference between 3-6" and 8-14" the Euro wants us to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I think it's nuts. Something seems funky around hour 48...I think based on the mid-level lows and even the thermal profiles showing dynamic cooling that the strong precip babdshould be further south in SVT/SNH instead of up around MPV. Yeah I am not buying it either but I wish it would verify lol.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I think it's nuts. Something seems funky around hour 48...I think based on the mid-level lows and even the thermal profiles showing dynamic cooling that the strong precip babdshould be further south in SVT/SNH instead of up around MPV. IDK man makes perfect sense to me, geezus look at the vis, gonna be a massive hit for you guys me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Agreed. Need to see the mesos start to reverse course at 18z otherwise people can get burned by the euro (again). The mesos carry a lot more weight on March 31st imo. I've just had years of conditioning that always leads me to error on the side of the mid levels flooding with warmth sooner rather than later. I keep a similar rule in mind about precip rates being over some by the models but that is partially due to the shadowing I sometimes see in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Classic sat pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Yeah something just isn't right with what's being modeled vs. what should be happening based on low tracks. This isn't done moving around yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep. Hubb fooked. Am I fooked too then? I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: IDK man makes perfect sense to me, geezus look at the vis, gonna be a massive hit for you guys me thinks Yeah I guess I just saw a couple things that I thought would argue for that mid-level banding look further south. Not a ton but it'll be something to watch. I'll say I'd rather have the EURO going big over any other model but we may still mix with sleet. It's pretty darn marginal there for a while and you can see an upslope/downslope signature to the mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Whineminster said: Am I fooked too then? I hope so. I think anyone north of Rt 2 should be prepped for an outage. I said yesterday I wouldn't be surprised if this was like Thanksgiving 2014 in terms of outage significance. Nothing like October '11 or December '08 but still quite a few outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think it's nuts. Something seems funky around hour 48-54...I think based on the mid-level lows and even the thermal profiles showing dynamic cooling that the strong precip babdshould be further south in SVT/SNH instead of up around MPV. That's the difference between 3-6" and 8-14" the Euro wants us to believe. 48 hr burp run, sort of like with the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Seems a little odd that BTV does not even have a WWA for Burlington when they show this: Location At least Likely Potential for >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Burlington, VT 0 3 12 87% 82% 75% 60% 47% 34% 16% 3% I know they are only expecting 3 inches with minimal impacts in the CPV per the discussion but if their products say there is a 47% chance of warning snows verifying you would think a Winter Weater Advisory or a watch would at least be up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Am I fooked too then? I hope so. I do believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I guess I just saw a couple things that I thought would argue for that mid-level banding look further south. Not a ton but it'll be something to watch. I'll say I'd rather have the EURO going big over any other model but we may still mix with sleet. It's pretty darn marginal there for a while and you can see an upslope/downslope signature to the mid-level temps. What do you think for Gore and Whiteface I'm heading north tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: For the clowns............ Kind of an odd shape, with snow getting to Quebec City then apparently dying before it can move to the east. It's like the storm track does an abrupt right face and strikes out toward Bermuda. (Or at least Sable Island) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Southern Dacks/Greens/Whites look amazing for this. I'm tempted to drive north on Sunday with the kiddies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He might have to eat them all to survive the power outages, can you eat chicken raw? Hope his grill works, sh it EEk might be eating his Chickadees to survive. Funny you should mention. I was outside earlier and noticed there is an unusual quantity of chickadees out there. Quite enjoyable to stand about 4 feet from the feeders while they voraciously feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: What do you think for Gore and Whiteface I'm heading north tonight Tough call. The thing Gore has going for it is that place does really well with SE low level flow in both precip production and that upslope should also help keep temps cooler in the mid levels. SE flow from GFL to Gore is a pretty steady 3,000ft rise and I remember growing up skiing there they always did well in those systems where upper level winds are SW but it's SE lower down. Theres a reason the models crank the QPF there. However I also have this feeling we all see more sleet than we think...HippyValley mentioned it and I always feel that way too that in these cases it always seems like the sleet comes faster and further than expected. It will likely wash out but we may see the first half of this system be like a raging sleetstorm for many with pockets of snow...that would be my concern. I wish I could see the Euro 800mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, tamarack said: Kind of an odd shape, with snow getting to Quebec City then apparently dying before it can move to the east. It's like the storm track does an abrupt right face and strikes out toward Bermuda. (Or at least Sable Island) It looks to move ESE when it's below LI, GFS does this further south, And the Nam comes further north before it moves east, That' what i am watching is to where that takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Tough call. The thing Gore has going for it is that place does really well with SE low level flow in both precip production and that upslope should also help keep temps cooler in the mid levels. SE flow from GFL to Gore is a pretty steady 3,000ft rise and I remember growing up skiing there they always did well in those systems where upper level winds are SW but it's SE lower down. Theres a reason the models crank the QPF there. However I also have this feeling we all see more sleet than we think...HippyValley mentioned it and I always feel that way too that in these cases it always seems like the sleet comes faster and further than expected. It will likely wash out but we may see the first half of this system be like a raging sleetstorm for many with pockets of snow...that would be my concern. I wish I could see the Euro 800mb temps. Very much agree sleet cutting down totals is my biggest concern I'm pretty confident on the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Tough call. The thing Gore has going for it is that place does really well with SE low level flow in both precip production and that upslope should also help keep temps cooler in the mid levels. SE flow from GFL to Gore is a pretty steady 3,000ft rise and I remember growing up skiing there they always did well in those systems where upper level winds are SW but it's SE lower down. Theres a reason the models crank the QPF there. However I also have this feeling we all see more sleet than we think...HippyValley mentioned it and I always feel that way too that in these cases it always seems like the sleet comes faster and further than expected. It will likely wash out but we may see the first half of this system be like a raging sleetstorm for many with pockets of snow...that would be my concern. I wish I could see the Euro 800mb temps. You come close to 0C at 800mb at 12z Saturday on the Euro but you're all snow. I upgraded from freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Jeff I had to laugh about this map for the next 7 days, I cmon man, CNE NNErs crying for their Mommas, Golf courses opening May 1st and EEks back yard snow clear date pushed up another week. This would be awesome May 1st? Our course traditionally opens the last week of April on average. That would be further into May than the 1st. The 8th if we get a warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Boring storm for MBY. Onto spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.