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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

So 12" instead of 15? It still seems to high. Is elevation a factor? That can make a big difference here in ORH with a range of elevations from just over 300' on Lake Quinsigamond on the east side and 1000' at the airport station on the west side

Kuchera likes ORH's elevation because the sfc will be colder...so it will "reward" them with a bit better ratios if they are like 29-30F vs 32-33F

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seeing as it's a hot topic ... 

Kuchero from Twin Cities NWS: (EDIT, WRONG ...not Twin Cities.. )

" Where the model forecasts snow:

-- Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT).

-- If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT).

-- If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT).

-- The hourly snowfall is RAT multiplied by the hourly liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall is the sum of all the hourly snow values up the given forecast hour.

It's a Navy product - btw... according to them.  So is the NOGAPS ...now franken fritter model ... not that it matters, but... heh.

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For eastern SNE:

This is shaping up to be another mesos (RGEM, NAM) vs. globals (Euro, GFS)... I missed the negative sentiments all morning, but going through guidance now, 12z GFS and Euro both held their ground. Euro even ticked slightly east. Net stable or positive trends for eastern SNE on both, at least for CCB portion.

 

What would be the main driver of a further northwest track?

In the March 14 debacle, it was at least in part intense convection / pumping heights downstream --- something the mesos seem to have a better handle of.

In this setup, it is timing and degree of interaction with northern stream --- something the globals may have a better handle of?

 

We'll see how it plays out. Interesting night ahead.

And we probably can all agree on this: so thankful we have something interesting to track.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, all the comments are conflicting and nebulous....those are how I can definitely determine trend.

Ya know I was working on a project and did something I usually don't do and read the posts here before looking my self, lol the IMBYism posts are too funny. QPF queens gonna QPF

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16 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

The changes I'm seeing 12z vs. 0z Euro:

H5 definitely ticked further south / southeast

H7 maybe a tick north

850Ts a tick colder in Boston area 6z-18z Saturday

Kuchera definitely is BETTER than 0z for northeast MA into Boston

 

 

There's still part of me that is leery of a huge swath of SNE just flashing to heavy snow sometime between 09z and 15z Saturday...the parts that flip over to non-snow in the first place of course (which could be most south of rt2 or even the NH/VT borders...we'll see). It will obviously take some good classic CCB dynamics...but they might make quick work of these 50mb marginal warm layers we're inspecting with a magnifying glass every run. Thankfully we still have a solid 12-18 hours to really figure it out.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's still part of me that is leery of a huge swath of SNE just flashing to heavy snow sometime between 09z and 15z Saturday...the parts that flip over to non-snow in the first place of course (which could be most south of rt2 or even the NH/VT borders...we'll see). It will obviously take some good classic CCB dynamics...but they might make quick work of these 50mb marginal warm layers we're inspecting with a magnifying glass every run. Thankfully we still have a solid 12-18 hours to really figure it out.

All the while Dendrite is hiding the chickens, already bought Lisa tickets to Michigan and is settling in for a long winters nap

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's still part of me that is leery of a huge swath of SNE just flashing to heavy snow sometime between 09z and 15z Saturday...the parts that flip over to non-snow in the first place of course (which could be most south of rt2 or even the NH/VT borders...we'll see). It will obviously take some good classic CCB dynamics...but they might make quick work of these 50mb marginal warm layers we're inspecting with a magnifying glass every run. Thankfully we still have a solid 12-18 hours to really figure it out.

Seems like the worst of it is sat morning? When does it really pick up in Boston? 

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I prob shouldn't be, but I'm morbidly curious what the 18z NAM looks like after undergoing some pretty significant synoptic changes at 12z. By right I'd expect it to come in noticeably colder, but I'm not too confident of that actually happening.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You must have got wood that run with 30"+

well so far NWS keeps us sub advisory so I can't get too excited, but it will be interesting to see how much they utilize the Euro in the afternoon package. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Seems like the worst of it is sat morning? When does it really pick up in Boston? 

Well Boston gets thumped on Friday evening before it flips, and then it flips back Sat morning. Hard to say which period gives them more. I don't have small enough time intervals to see.

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

well so far NWS keeps us sub advisory so I can't get too excited, but it will be interesting to see how much they utilize the Euro in the afternoon package. 

lol, I thought you meant the overall run, Another couple more shots at snow over the next 7 days but that's for another thread

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well Boston gets thumped on Friday evening before it flips, and then it flips back Sat morning. Hard to say which period gives them more. I don't have small enough time intervals to see.

Thanks. Something to keep in mind with those snow maps, in terms of impact. For example, sounds like an area near Boston per the euro would gross 8" total but see the first 4 melt/compact/wash away and then end up with 4" net otg as the back end moves through.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

lol, I thought you meant the overall run, Another couple more shots at snow over the next 7 days but that's for another thread

Jeff I had to laugh about this map for the next 7 days, I cmon man, CNE NNErs crying for their Mommas, Golf courses opening May 1st and EEks back yard snow clear date pushed up another week. This would be awesome

ecmwf_tsnow_neng_33.png

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Jeff I had to laugh about this map for the next 7 days, I cmon man, CNE NNErs crying for their Mommas, Golf courses opening May 1st and EEks back yard snow clear date pushed up another week. This would be awesome

ecmwf_tsnow_neng_33.png

Yeah Steve, Lol, Brian down to a chicken or two

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I've never been in the game for snow. I do think an icestorm is now becoming a distinct possibility. I just wouldn't be throwing big snow totals out unless you're HUnch on north 

Is that so??   You just said 24 hours ago that you were "so excited for your long awaited Blue Bomb!"

 

My how quick we change our tune and forget what we said.  

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