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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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Seems a little odd that BTV does not even have a WWA for Burlington when they show this:

Location At least    Likely    Potential for     >=0.1"      >=1"      >=2"      >=4"       >=6"      >=8"     >=12"     >=18"
                       
Burlington, VT 0 3 12 87% 82% 75% 60% 47% 34% 16% 3%
 

snowProbGE6.png&key=3e35c061b57fa6f1d53fd51f448d21a9a94548485dcde9766f3a094c0935e219

I know they are only expecting 3 inches with minimal impacts in the CPV per the discussion but if their products say there is a 47% chance of warning snows verifying you would think a Winter Weater Advisory or a watch would at least be up



There is one up now for 3-5.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Its the terrible algorythym thats stupid and some peeps pump fist or grab a box cutter off the outputs. TT sucks shud be banned, pivotal is much better. 

Its like giving a baby a pacifier when they cry to some on here, Hey, If it makes them feel better...........lol

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True lol. I was just annoyed when I sneak a look during work and see it. Then I hit the hay and check out the run and it looks nothing like the snow map printout. 

Yeah, I mean ea run usually looks different on them, I go where the mid levels are and liquid qpf, Usually can get a good idea by where its tracking.

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41 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The NAM on Tropical Tidbits says I'm getting 20", my local meteorologist says I'm getting an inch of slush...I just don't know who to believe. I'll probably just split the difference.

It's a 'conundrum bomb' more so than a snow one..  seriously.

I can see several outcomes to this thing, ...ranging from dystopian misery for snow enthusiasts to an utter bonanza, and confusion in between.

I could see you getting 1 inch of slush and buckshot sleeting for what seems like days down there, ...straight rain after some early cat-paws..., or light rain and 'paws over to parachutes, back to sleet and rain, then...flashing to uniform mid sizers down to 1/4 mi vis on Saturday circa noon.. 

Any of those appear plausible in my mind - sorry... it's a cluster f of scenario.

but man Folks, that 18z NAM was a mouth gaper for sure.  Unending hours of moderate to heavy fall rates with the 800, 900, and surface T's in the NAM grid all supporting snow and/or sleet and snow mixed for Logan... all the way to almost 3" of liq equiv.  Something that also stood out to me is that ALB's sounding has been having trouble cooling off in that 800 mb level on many persistent cycles but suddenly...it's lost those +4's on this run... now, not really even warm enough to completely melt at that level, in this FRH grid. That means the entire column over the range is actually cooling in the run.  Plus, I've been speculating all along that the QPF may be overdone - though in my defense... not committing to that.  This run simply refuses to back off GIANT numbers. If I take the straight up differential between Logan and ALB and figure that for the interior of Worcester N to the EEN... there'd better be a warm layer way up there or watch out!

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a 'conundrum bomb' more so than a snow one..  seriously.

I can see several outcomes to this thing, ...ranging from dystopian misery for snow enthusiasts to an utter bonanza, and confusion in between.

I could see you getting 1 inch of slush and buckshot sleeting for what seems like days down there, ...straight rain after some early cat-paws..., or light rain and 'paws over to parachutes, back to sleet and rain, then...flashing to uniform mid sizers down to 1/4 mi vis on Saturday circa noon.. 

Any of those appear plausible in my mind - sorry... it's a cluster f of scenario.

but man Folks, that 18z NAM was a mouth gaper for sure.  Unending hours of moderate to heavy fall rates with the 800, 900, and surface T's in the NAM grid all supporting snow and/or sleet and snow mixed for Logan... all the way to almost 3" of liq equiv.  Something that also stood out to me is that ALB's sounding has been having trouble cooling off in that 800 mb level on many persistent cycles but suddenly...it's lost those +4's on this run... now, not really even warm enough to completely melt at that level, in this FRH grid. That means the entire column over the range is actually cooling in the run.  Plus, I've been speculating all along that the QPF may be overdone - though in my defense... not committing to that.  This run simply refuses to back off GIANT numbers. If I take the straight up differential between Logan and ALB and figure that for the interior of Worcester N to the EEN... there'd better be a warm layer way up there or watch out!

I peeked at FOUS and nearly had an accident....

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

WTF GFS won't back down, still amazed the warm bias model is still the coldest, what the hell

GFS takes the SLP and tracks it due east along Lat 39N where the Euro is east along Lat 40N and the Nam east along Lat 40.5N, So its the furthest south along with the GGEM and coldest.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't think anyone here knows what's going to happen with this. We can look at models, soundings..this one just reeks of ending up nothing like one would forecast for said area. Just wait and see what you wake yo tomorrow and that's your likely predominant precipitation type perhaps

Hate to say this but some Wx gurus with their cocky attitudes ( not here) need a comeuppance, I hope this busts super high.

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