Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am annoyed by this lazy approach to just generalize the impact of easterly winds on the coastal plane....requires a bit more critical thinking. you can be annoyed all you want, doesn't change the fact there are strong easterlies in the BL advecting warm air near the coast, why you take this as meaning you is what is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Zucker, that GFS panel is 1 hr QPF now, not 6 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Get to a keyboard, fast. You are struggling. Class all day. Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Who said anything about Ray? He said Tarmac I said 10 to 15 miles inland. Those 950 numbers came from which model? You are correct you didn't specifically mention Ray, but you replied to him and said fat flakes melting 10-15 miles inland. I would take the under on that distance easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hell, the lower level soundings are cold enough that I might forecast a sleet bomb for some folks before I'd forecast rain if the mid-levels end up too warm for snow. I was just saying that for BOS internally. I could see why it may happen should the NAM be partly correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: your logic is all over the place over the past 2 days. Whats your forecast for BOS and ORH? Mine isn't. There's is." It's all about the mid levels."Show me mid level temps in Portsmouth NH and Portland ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm prepared for anything from a pelt fest to 20". I'll probably drive all the way to the Pike for my Boston trip and hope to get to better roads than Rt. 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you can be annoyed all you want, doesn't change the fact there are strong easterlies in the BL advecting warm air near the coast, why you take this as meaning you its what is annoying. Your failure to grasp the concept of H925 temps is sonething to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're failure to grasp the concept of H925 temps is sonething tp behold. Glad you live at 925, good luck but we ain't talking about you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Class all day. Deal. Pay attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12z GFS is 2 inches of QPF at KGFL and cold....ton of snow in the higher elevations just to its NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Glad you live at 925, good luck but we ain't talking about you Heavy precipitation advects that into the BL, which cools it a bit...even at the beach to a degree. Learn some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 This seems to be turning into a Saturday deal on some guidance, which is another ding against this system. Im still not all that convinced this isn't just slop for a large part of SNE, it's pretty close to that, and still two days left to go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Pay attention? Piss off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Ugh. We are talking past each other here. That's my point. Why the lower confidence if it's all about the mid levels, as will and 40/70 are saying? The mid levels are ice cold north of bosoton. I don't know what to tell you. Even in damming situations, warm air can wrap around to the east as the mid level warm fronts lines up on the coast. Your slam dunk warnings, can turn into sleet or freezing rain and look silly a lot faster than the interior zones. I'm just at home trying to offer you a reason why the watches aren't exactly where you want them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 If it's cold relatively low in the atmosphere...say 950mb....then that usually will wipe out a mild sfc pretty fast in heavy precip because of latent cooling. Latent cooling will probably be much more powerful than any advection from east wind once you are off the docks and beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I don't know what to tell you. Even in damming situations, warm air can wrap around to the east as the mid level warm fronts lines up on the coast. Your slam dunk warnings, can turn into sleet or freezing rain and look silly a lot faster than the interior zones. I'm just at home trying to offer you a reason why the watches aren't exactly where you want them. ?. I'm in agreement with there NOT being watches in said areas, along the coast. I.e it's a good call so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Piss off? No thanks. You always manage to resort to personal attacks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Ray's a real peach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Well in other news, the GEM has pretty much held serve from 00z. Maybe a smidgeeee cooler. Likes the Rt. 2 corridor for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, nzucker said: I think there are a lot of red flags on this one. First, it's a fairly long duration, light precipitation event in the late season. I'm not seeing those 6hr frames of .5-.75" QPF that make me want to think huge dynamics overpowering a mediocre, late March airmass. Second, due to the long duration and slow movement of the storm, there is an extended period of east winds at the coast. This is especially true with the H5 track. Maritime air could easily make it into Boston and then you're left with a 35F rain or non accumulating catpaws. Finally, the surface low is fairly weak. This isn't a 980mb bomb. Nothing in common with 4/1/97 or 4/15/07. A weaker surface low will result in less dynamic cooling. BOS// 42038989566 03510 150923 46000000 48108989457 34407 090729 48000102 54110978858 10816 080431 46009900 60028965850 -3613 100230 45000098 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No thanks. You always manage to resort to personal attacks though. I didn't realize pissing off held such a personal connotation for you. Nobody needs a lecture on typos in the days of mobile internet access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Sometimes I wish the Lord had blessed me with sons instead of daughters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 During the wet snow event back in Feb, even my hood TWd down to 31.9 on ESE winds, because it was pretty cold for a few hours at 950. It definitely can wash out some shallow warmth. The power of melting also helps cool the boundary layer...esp if heavy precip occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: BOS// 42038989566 03510 150923 46000000 48108989457 34407 090729 48000102 54110978858 10816 080431 46009900 60028965850 -3613 100230 45000098 Don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative. This is a weak, sheared out mess in March... no way it'll snow save those picnic tables! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No thanks. You always manage to resort to personal attacks though. He is annoyed we aren't talking about him I guess. I agree with will that his could be a sleet fest rather than rain but inside 128 and 95 is a tough call. Also that Gloucester area North could get pounded once the winds veer NE. We await the king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Heavy precipitation advects that into the BL, which cools it a bit...even at the beach to a degree. Learn some things. You may have a little hydrometeor drag, but I don't think advect is the right term here. Sinking air warms...not cools. One of the big problems I think is models just flat out over doing the warmth at the sfc when H95 is relatively cold. I guess if the delta is high enough even sinking air from H95 could cause the sfc to cool (like a katabatic wind), but I think it's more of a case of latent cooling...whether there's still some room for wetbulbing to allow for a little evaporative cooling or in these isothermal paste jobs some latent cooling from partial melting. Of course with heavy precip rates you have strong lift and that's where you get most of your cooling dynamically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: Don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative. This is a weak, sheared out mess in March... no way it'll snow save those picnic tables! 1 minute ago, danstorm said: Don't let facts get in the way of a good narrative. This is a weak, sheared out mess in March... no way it'll snow save those picnic tables! I think his point is that we have heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 My concerns in order for keeping snow accumulations fairly conservative north of the pike in SNE would be: 1. Midlevel temps/track 2. Do dynamics weaken a bit later in the storm? (This is kind of related to number 1...weakening dynamics would slow the cooling process aloft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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