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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think there are a lot of red flags on this one. First, it's a fairly long duration, light precipitation event in the late season. I'm not seeing those 6hr frames of .5-.75" QPF that make me want to think huge dynamics overpowering a mediocre, late March airmass.

 

Say what?

ecmwf_tprecip_boston_14.png

ecmwf_precip_06_boston_11.png

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have to disagree on that with strong easterly flow without a northern component , fat melting flakes and slop 10 to 15 miles inland

Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates.

Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient?

The coast all the way from Boston to Portland ME is not under wsw. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates.

I am annoyed by this lazy approach to just generalize the impact of easterly winds on the coastal plane....requires a bit more critical thinking.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient? 

It does...it's basically a latitude gradient. The exception is right near the shore...but the zones aren't divided fine enough to draw the lines right on the coast, so they extend maybe 10 miles inland. It probably would only be an issue within 5 miles of the shore and even I have my doubts about that.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It does...it's basically a latitude gradient. The exception is right near the shore...but the zones aren't divided fine enough to draw the lines right on the coast, so they extend maybe 10 miles inland. It probably would only be an issue within 5 miles of the shore.

We are talking about the shore to 10 miles inland. It's not a latitude gradient at all along the coast. That's a big deal when most of the population lives there...

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is wht U don t care about easterly winds....its H85  and H8 that is of concern.

Yeah if you were advecting +2 air at 950mb off the ocean like December 1996, then I'd be afraid of easterly flow there, but that is not the case. The high is in a pretty good spot for NE MA.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

We are talking about the shore to 10 miles inland. That's a big deal when most of the population lives there...

I'm never quite sure with you...sometimes you mention issues all the way out to ORH (like yesterday) which is like 40 miles inland and then you agree with Steve who was directly addressing Ray about how he should worry about easterly flow. Ray is further than 10 miles inland.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if you were advecting +2 air at 950mb off the ocean like December 1996, then I'd be afraid of easterly flow there, but that is not the case. The high is in a pretty good spot for NE MA.

There is a reason that there is a larger precedent for major March snows on the cp, than there is December.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm never quite sure with you...sometimes you mention issues all the way out to ORH (like yesterday) which is like 40 miles inland and then you agree with Steve who was directly addressing Ray about how he should worry about easterly flow. Ray is further than 10 miles inland.

I believe the concern was surrounding his forecast, not his backyard.

KORH is a midlevel issue. Temps are marginal but winds are not strong enough to matter there. 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient?

The coast all the way from Boston to Portland ME is not under wsw. 

It can be a confidence thing too. Offices can be more confident that it will snow in the interior than on the coast. It doesn't mean they don't think it will snow on the coast.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It can be a confidence thing too. Offices can be more confident that it will snow in the interior than on the coast. It doesn't mean they don't think it will snow on the coast.

Ugh. We are talking past each other here. That's my point. Why the lower confidence if it's all about the mid levels, as will and 40/70 are saying? The mid levels are ice cold north of Boston, yet no watches all the way to Portland.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I believe the concern was surrounding his forecast, not his backyard.

KORH is a midlevel issue. Temps are marginal but winds are not strong enough to matter there. 

your logic is all over the place over the past 2 days.  Whats your forecast for BOS and ORH?

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates.

Who said anything about Ray? He said Tarmac I said 10 to 15 miles inland. Those 950 numbers came from which model?

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Say what?

ecmwf_tprecip_boston_14.png

ecmwf_precip_06_boston_11.png

You also have a lot of frames like this on the GFS with 0.01-0.1" scattered QPF. The low is rapidly occluding to the south which prevents the typical stacking of the thickness gradient and development of powerful CCB.

We had a storm like this around 3/25/14 when there was a 980mb low like 100 miles south of NYC and all we got was a rain/sleet mix. It was occluding fast and the diurnal heating of this time of year makes it harder to rip a CCB.

Screenshot_20170330-123155-360x640.png

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