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About nzucker

  • Birthday 05/11/1988

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  • Location:
    Pelham Parkway(Bronx), NY

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  1. That 1895 heat wave really jumps out at you...95F in late September!
  2. Some 100F temperatures were recorded in that 1895 heat wave around NYC. I believe Central Park had an official high of 97F. Probably the most significant heat wave in September besides the 1953 heat wave when 100F was recorded early in the month and there were like 13 straight days above 90F. But 1895 may be more impressive because it was much later in the month and in a much colder climate. Hitting upper 90s on 9/1 is way different than hitting upper 90s on 9/25.
  3. I was specifically talking about the far fetched possibility of hitting 90F this September. We still haven't gotten close. My forecast has 87F tomorrow, 88F Sunday, and 86F Monday, so it will be close...but many of the days have been in the upper 70s and low 80s as I suspected. Warm for the time of year but not insane.
  4. We all suspected it would get hot in September after the cool summer and with a strengthening La Nina. It wasn't a surprise to see a -PNA pattern this September. I expect a large scale pattern change starting 9/30 as the Kara Sea ridge leads to a -NAO. At the same time, ridging should build into the Aleutians and extend poleward, allowing cold air to fill Canada.
  5. It looks blocked by medium concentration ice in the image above. Is that refreezing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by 9/9?
  6. The pattern looks to change significantly after 9/30...A strong low pressure system tracks across Canada at the same time an Aleutian ridge starts to develop...these two factors remove a lot of the mild Pacific air from Canada and allow colder continental air to filter down from the North Pole and especially the Beaufort Sea/N AK region. Combined with declining sun angle, Canada fills with below freezing 850mb temperatures. Simultaneously, there is a spike in the PNA around 9/28, followed by a brief dip, and then a return to more sustained western ridging/+PNA by October 4th. Wouldn't be surprised if the northwest suburbs saw their first round of 30s along with some frost threats in that first week of October if modeling holds. It looks like that will be the time to remove air conditioning units and ready heating systems for the coming winter. Will feel especially chilly after the mild middle of September.
  7. A strong La Nina tends to correlate with above normal temperatures in Siberia/Eurasia, which is where the vast majority of the snow cover area is located. This would make sense because -ENSO tends to induce a stronger Aleutian/Kamchatka ridge which forces cold air into North America and away from Eurasia. On the other hand, El Nino tends to create a strong Gulf of Alaska low (+EPO), which would have cold air behind it in Siberia, and warmer air in front of it in North America. Remember 2009-2010 was a very warm fall and winter globally, but there was a small area of extremely below normal temperatures in Siberia where the PV resided that cold season. The PV tends to favor North America in La Ninas and Siberia in El Ninos, at least from what I've seen. 95-96 and 83-84 were two La Nina years that had significant PV intrusions into the United States..early February '96 had -60F temperatures in northern Minnesota, and Christmas 1983 is a very well known arctic outbreak. All of the stronger El Ninos have had very limited PV intrusions...82-83 and 97-98 had none at all, 15-16 had one very brief PV outbreak around Valentine's Day when NYC hit -1F.
  8. Looks as if the Northwest Passage never opened? A relatively weak melt season in terms of area and extent, but volume continues to show limited recovery.
  9. I don't see the map auto-updating. I stilll see the image from 9/12. How does it look now?
  10. Wow I used to live on 75th (Bay Ridge Parkway) between 5th and 6th Avenue. Great area. Taught at the school on 4th Ave.
  11. If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat. And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.
  12. I believe Quebec City had 230" off an average of 120" in Winter 07-08.
  13. It looks as if the ridge amplifies to our North, however, limiting how warm we can get and allowing for a tropical system or ULL to develop underneath those high heights. Could eventually lead to a heavy rain/flood threat.
  14. Those anomalies are only 2C/3.6F, not enough to hit 90F. If NYC's normals are 73/59, that would equate to upper 70s by day.
  15. I've been tempted to pull the bedroom A/C several times..I don't think I've turned it on once since August 22nd, the day that hit 89F in Central Park. NYC has only reached 80F twice this September, and several days have topped out in the 60s and low 70s...It's been annoying to lose the cool breeze the window generates by having the A/C unit blocking the vast majority of the window. I can open the top a crack, but it doesn't provide nearly the ventilation that a full window would. I may need the A/C one last time this week, which is why I kept it in...Wednesday and Thursday look fairly warm at 82/67, though not that much above normal for mid-September. Once the next trough arrives, it's out. It looks like the next trough is progged to approach the area around 9/20 with the arrival of Juan, and that is climatologically around the point that most people switch from cooling to heating anyway. Sure, there may be one or two warm days in October, but those are usually brief and are generally accompanied by low humidity, so there isn't much point in keeping A/C in. Uninstall awaits the coming of the weekend trough.