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About nzucker

  • Birthday 05/11/1988

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Pelham Parkway(Bronx), NY

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  1. Mountain West Discussion

    Yes, it was an incredible event here. Had 6" in the Bronx on April 2nd...stuck to major roads such as Pelham Pkey, shown in the picture. Central Park reported 5.5". The Mar 1-April 20 period has been the 3rd coldest since records began in 1869.
  2. Mountain West Discussion

    Nope...the PHL to NYC area saw 3-6" in the 4/2 event.
  3. You don't "have to admit" that. None of the eruptions was a VEI5 or VEI6, a level significant enough to reach the stratosphere with an aerosol plume. That means these eruptions had very limited effects on hemispheric temperatures. A much bigger driver was the MJO progression associated with the demise of La Nina and the -NAO block.
  4. Can you stop? Look at the maps...the winter had higher than normal heights over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Case closed.
  5. Yes, there are almost no buds on trees. In the record warm spring of 2010, we were almost fully leafed out by 4/11. Just a drastic difference.
  6. This makes sense according to the precepts of climate change...the North is warming faster than places in the mid-Atlantic, and this is expected by most GCM simulations. It is logical as the North depends more on radiational cooling and the health of the cryosphere, both of which are impacted negatively by climate change. As the North warms more quickly than the rest of the country, the discrepancy in changes of frost/freeze dates between places like BTV and NYC will probably grow. Although I haven't studied this, there is probably more variation possible in places away from the ocean that have later freeze dates. It is easier for BTV and BDL to move up 2 weeks than NYC, which is already a coastal climate with limited radiational cooling that has a relatively early last freeze date. There is definitely some luck involved here, too. We have had two particularly cold airmasses in early April (2018 and 2016), which falls within the normal window of NYC's last freeze. Most of the heat in April has been in the middle of the month, probably part of the reason BDL has seen a change in its final freeze. The last major cold spells in May were Memorial Day 2013, when parts of New England had a snowstorm, and then May 2010, when Dobbs Ferry had a freeze on 5/10 and a high of 46F on 5/14. Although luck plays a role, the overall trend is warming, and this is evidenced by the revision of the USDA Hardiness Zones Map from 1990 to 2012; most places moved half a zone (5F) warmer in the 20 year period. The tendency towards longer growing seasons should continue nationwide, and particularly in the North. However, there will always be variation due to the weather.
  7. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    I can corroborate. I had 48" here in the northeast Bronx. Snowy winter with a cold beginning and end, capped off by a 6" event on April 2nd. However, I doubt we average 32"...Central Park's long-term average is 28", and I doubt we're that much higher. I would guess around 30" is right for most of the Bronx.
  8. The snowfall on 4-15-14 was also interesting in that it was the latest accumulation since 4-19-83, which hit Long Island hard. The PV feature that gave Dobbs Ferry 74" that winter, and a near record cold March with several misses to the south, stayed active into the summer. The troughing re-oriented itself over the Midwest/Lakes, but still delivered the coolest and least humid summer since 2009.
  9. Should finish right on average at 69 days...Central Park reached a low of 32F as of 3:51am...32/14 right now, nice and crisp for April 9th. Will probably be the last freeze barring clearer than expected weather tonight, or an unseasonably late cold airmass. NYC hasn't had regular freezes in late April since the late 1800s.
  10. NWS has a chance of snow/mix here with a low of 37F on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Should transition to rain early though as temps are expected to make a run at 50F. NYC at 34/16...may get another freeze tonight.
  11. It obviously depends on the year. In 2012, we had 70s and 80s in mid-March. In 2010, trees were leafed out by the second week of April. Whereas in 2014, we received 1" of snow on 4/15; this year, we had 6" on April 2nd. So there is obviously a ton of variation. Using the date of the last frost may be a good standard, however. For much of the NYC region, that corresponds to 4/10-4/20. This seems to coincide with the arrival of SUSTAINED warmth. That is, it's rare to see 2+ days in a row with sub 50F highs after mid-April. You can also use the date that average highs hit a certain mark. NYC average highs hit 50F ~3/20 and 60F ~4/10. There are many ways to define the arrival of spring, and there is high variability associated with the changes in seasons. But average last frost and average highs are an objective means of conveying a subjective concept of "spring."
  12. Quite a string of blocks

    Yes, very -EPO/-WPO pattern. Drains cold into North America, allowing for all the late-season snow events.
  13. April 7-8 2018 jinx

    The trough is strongest in the center of the country (Northern Plains) due to the powerful -EPO block. We are on the east side of the trough, hence the storminess and near-record precip. As April continues, that trough looks to remain anchored in the country's mid-section, but retreat further northward into the Canadian Prairies/Dakotas. This should allow for more of a Bermuda High in the East.
  14. April 7-8 2018 jinx

    Too bad, because it's rare to have such cold air (850s near -10C) in April. Usually the issue is temperature, not getting enough precipitation (suppression). But this time the PV feature over eastern Canada crushes everything.
  15. Central Park may get a hard freeze on Sunday morning, 4/8. Would that be significantly later than the 2000s average last freeze?