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About nzucker

  • Birthday 05/11/1988

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  • Location:
    Pelham Parkway(Bronx), NY

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  1. -50C 850s? Where? Never seen that before....usually the coldest the PV gets is like -40C.
  2. nzucker

    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    We had 8" here on March 21st last year and 6" on April 2nd. Not sure what you mean.
  3. That's incredible, great work.
  4. nzucker

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Yes but the changes in solar output are much smaller in effect on radiative forcing than the cumulative influence of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
  5. Highs are mostly in the low to mid 40s this week. That's actually below average for the time of year: climo is 45-50F in late Nov/early Dec. People forget because of the early snowfall, but the heart of our winter is Dec 15-Jan 15.
  6. People forget that average highs on Dec 1st are around 47F in Central Park. Climatology favors the second half of the month for significant snowfall. In 2010 we had a very cold December but waited until 12/26 for our first significant storm when Central Park got 20" on Boxing Day. First week of Dec looks Niña-like in the means with a prevailing -PNA and western trough...may be due to AAM loss. Then we wait..
  7. nzucker

    11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

    Full list of spotter reports, anyone?
  8. Temperatures were pretty marginal for freezing rain in the City and right near the Coast. You don't get much accretion in urban areas with 30-32F ZR.
  9. Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation? Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow. Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.
  10. I think that's liquid equivalent...it's probably around 5" of snow or so.
  11. Measurement is in a slight drift on garbage can, so I'd say we have about 5.5" here in the Pelham Parkway area of the Bronx. Very windy at times with near whiteout conditions, treacherous indeed--saw a large SUV totalled on my street from skidding out.
  12. nzucker

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    We have a house in Lake Como, PA in northern Wayne County. Were you near there?
  13. nzucker

    My Winter Outlook 2018-19

    Great outlook, Isotherm...in line with much of what I've read here. What do you think of 04-05 as an analog, as well? Or 68-69/69-70?
  14. nzucker

    Coldtober model and pattern disco

    So green for this date.