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About nzucker

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  • Location:
    Hunts Point (Bronx), NY

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  1. I think there are a lot of red flags on this one. First, it's a fairly long duration, light precipitation event in the late season. I'm not seeing those 6hr frames of .5-.75" QPF that make me want to think huge dynamics overpowering a mediocre, late March airmass. Second, due to the long duration and slow movement of the storm, there is an extended period of east winds at the coast. This is especially true with the H5 track. Maritime air could easily make it into Boston and then you're left with a 35F rain or non accumulating catpaws. Finally, the surface low is fairly weak. This isn't a 980mb bomb. Nothing in common with 4/1/97 or 4/15/07. A weaker surface low will result in less dynamic cooling.
  2. Well obviously, it's 2 weeks later...big difference between 3/14 and 3/31. No one thinks the airmass is as cold as the blizzard.
  3. I said that the warmest day would be after the cold front went through and winds changed to westerly. Somehow the NWS missed this. Average highs are in the mid 50s now anyway.
  4. Yea cars get damaged and totaled in ridiculously minor accidents nowadays. I rear ended someone doing 15mph in 2013 and my Mazda 2 was written off. The cheap plastic they use is a joke.
  5. Thursday should be warmer due to west winds behind the cold front clearing out the marine layer. However, Friday will be 40-45F with heavy rain, another dreary, below normal day. Average highs are close to 55F now, so these days in the 40s with rain and wind should allow NYC to finish with at least a -3F monthly departure for March.
  6. All of the forecasts busted this week, including Accuweather and the NWS. Saturday forecast high 61F, actual 55F. Sunday forecast high 49F, actual 40F. Monday forecast high 62F, actual 50F. Tuesday forecast high 61F, actual 43F. Cold continues and the potential for any AN weather looks done with the frontal passage tomorroe. The reality will probably be opposite of the forecast: Thursday will probably be our warmest day with W/NW winds behind the cold front even though it was originally forecast to be the coldest.
  7. Temps again much cooler than expected. Overnight low was supposed to be 50F, but in reality it has been 42-43F most of the evening. Heating will be kicking on again. I saw tomorrow's forecast high was also changed from low 60s to mid 50s. Just a depressing week.
  8. Never made it out of the 40s in Hunts Point. Last two days have had major busts by NWS. They should know by now that warm fronts in the spring never advance as far northward as modeled.
  9. Only 42F and rain here in the Bronx. Doesn't look like we'll see the 60s forecasted. Forecasts have been too high for three days in a row: it was supposed to be 60F Saturday, only hit 55F, yesterday was 41F instead of 49F, today it's 42F instead of 60F. Been a cold March, and departures should stay around -3F given the cold front Wednesday. It's just that averages are warming so cold is 40F and rain now instead of 30F and snow two weeks ago. Looks like NYC will be down in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday night again. Still need that heating.
  10. Tom, Holding at 37-38F tonight in Westchester...may be a little sleet mixing in but tough to tell. Very chilly night, still some snow remaining at 350-400' elevation in the woods. Mostly piles, though. Do you think we may see trough amplification in the Apr 5-10 period?
  11. Yup I slept til 2pm today. Dreary here with 42F, low overcast, and NE winds. May be the last day for the winter coat and hat. Looks like spring arrives tomorrow with upper 50s and low 60s all week. Still expecting a cooldown April 5-10 but cold would be mid to upper 40s at that point. Central Park is still near -3F for March departure. They are a lock to finish below average though the departure will be trimmed somewhat this week.
  12. Don't think you're going to get to that 100" mark. Too bad the main storms this winter came pretty late, 2/9 and 3/14. We torched throughout February, and mid-March is just too late to start a snowpack/wintry stretch with the high sun angle.
  13. Yep, hit 55F here in the Bronx. Not as warm as expected with low clouds and drizzle. Some shady, north-facing areas STILL have snow, very impressive. Pretty isolated though. Tomorrow looks crummy with mid 40s and rain. Late March/early April is one of my least favorite parts of the year.
  14. A lot of the runs have shown snow/mix behind a departing low on 3/31 as well as the 4/5-4/10 cold period. One thing is for certain: the idea of a warm March with 80s by late month looks completely incorrect. The GFS has been showing a new below normal pattern, starting Wednesday.
  15. The 18z GFS continued the theme of a significant cold snap in the 4/5-4/10 period, a time a lot of us are watching. With a strong ridge over the Western Plains and a departing coastal, 850s drop to near -10C. There is light snow behind the coastal low as well as the overrunning from the Plains. I haven't put my winter jacket away yet. I wouldn't be surprised if the BDCF clears the area completely by Wednesday, bringing in cold air and potential overrunning precip. That plus the cold advertised 4/5-10 means the ski jacket stays out.